A majority of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip support President Mahmoud Abbas' decision not to run in the next elections, results of an independent poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) showed Monday.
From its findings, PSR concluded, "While the balance of power between Fatah and Hamas remains as it was before the eruption of the Goldstone report crisis, the majority do not blame Hamas for the continued split between the West Bank and Gaza Strip or for the failure to hold national elections.
"Indeed, a majority supports the president’s decision not to run in the next elections and a majority opposes holding elections before reconciliation," a summary of the poll suggested.
The poll, undertaken between 10 and 12 December, shows that 57% of Palestinians support Abbas’ decision not to run in a presidential election while 36% oppose it. The findings between those who wanted to vote for Abbas and those who opposed his decision to stay out of the election process were directly correlated, the poll found.
A majority of 58% believe Abbas will reverse his decision and will run in the next elections, while 21% believe that he will stick to his decision and will resign.
Satisfaction with Abbas’ performance remains the same as it was four months ago during the last PSR poll at 48%, while dissatisfaction stands at 49%.
If presidential elections were held between Marwan Barghouthi and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouthi would receive 67% of the votes, an increase since the last poll of 5%, while Haniyeh would receive 28%, a drop of 3% since last August.
Participation in presidential elections would be much higher, reaching 73%, if Barghouthi and Haniyeh, rather than Abbas and Haniyeh, were the contenders.
PSR observed from its findings that "It is likely that the popularity of Fatah and Abbas has deteriorated considerably right after the eruption of the crisis over the Goldstone report when a vote on the report was postponed by Abbas.”
“But Hamas’s refusal to sign the proposed reconciliation agreement and its subsequent decision to prevent the election commission from conducting preparations for elections in the Gaza Strip redressed the imbalance caused by the Goldstone Report crisis," the research group added.
Fatah’s popularity in the West Bank stands at 41% compared to 46% in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas’s popularity stands at 23% in the West Bank compared to 34% in the Gaza Strip. All other factions and lists receive 14% of the vote and 17% remain undecided.
Hamas' decision not to hold elections
The PSR results show that a quarter of the public believes that Hamas is responsible for the failure to hold elections on time while 11% believe Fatah is the one responsible. But the largest percentage, 30%, blames Israel and 9% blame the election commission.
A majority of 58% supports Hamas’ position that national elections can only take place after reconciliation and 39% oppose it. Among those who oppose Hamas’s position, 54% support holding elections even if only in the West Bank and 34% oppose that.
Nonetheless, 57% believe that the president will lose his legitimacy in January 2010 and an identical percentage believes that the Palestinian Legislative Council will lose its legitimacy at that same time.
Results indicate that 61% of the public believe that Fatah and Hamas together are responsible for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 17% held Hamas responsible while 12% believe Fatah is responsible.
A majority of 61% views the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as the highest important Palestinian priority today; 22% believe the top priority is the maintenance of calm and the opening of border crossings; and 16% believe the top priority is the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip.
The PSR noted from its findings that if Hamas wins the next elections, 48% believe this outcome would consolidate separation between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 19% believe it would strengthen unity. If Fatah wins the next elections, only 27% believe this would consolidate separation and 34% believe it would strengthen unity.
If new legislative elections were held today with all factions participating, 72% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 43% say they would vote for Fatah and 27% say they would vote for Hamas. These results are almost the same as those we found four months ago, according to the PSR.
Satisfaction with the Haniyeh government’s performance was 34% (30% in the West Bank and 42% in the Gaza Strip) and satisfaction with the performance of Salam Fayyad’s government stood at 40% (42% in the West Bank and 36% in the Gaza Strip).
The poll revealed that 36% give a positive evaluation to the status of democracy and human rights in the West Bank under Fayyad’s government while 25% give a positive evaluation to the status of democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip under Haniyeh’s government.
Moreover, 30% believe Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one while 26% believe that Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one. Four months ago, Fayyad’s government was seen legitimate by 28% and Haniyeh’s by 28%.
The PSR noted that "The improvement in Fayyad’s standing might be the result of the increased public perception of safety and security in the West Bank."
In the West Bank, perception of personal and family safety and security continues to improve standing today at 63%, compared to 58% four months ago. In the Gaza Strip, perception of safety and security stands today at 65% compared to 63% four months ago. Despite this improvement, 21% of West Bankers and 34% of Gazans say that political, security, and economic conditions force them to seek immigration to other countries.
The poll’s sample was 1,200 adults who were all interviewed face to face in 120 randomly-selected locations.
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