When Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced he would not run for a new term in elections early next year, he justified his decision by focusing on his frustration with the stance by the US and the Arabs on the Israeli settlement issue. Irrespective of the ultimate consequences of this declaration and the chance that Abbas will go back on it, his justification reveals the depth of the predicament that the peace process is now in, along with the plan to establish a Palestinian state. It also reveals the depth of the predicament of Palestinian political action. This is the most dangerous part of the announcement.
This danger is not reduced by the interpretations that speak of a maneuver by Abbas for political reasons, whether in order to pressure the Palestinian leadership or gain US pressure on Israel on settlements, which are frustrating him.
Most likely, the Palestinian president is honest when it comes to this announcement. He is known for staying away from responsibility when he sees himself as unable to deliver. He said this, implicitly, in his meetings with Central Committee members of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Central Committee of Fatah. We can infer that the current situation prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state, which he set as a goal, due to Israeli policies and US policy stances.
In terms of Palestinian politics, two questions arise: how to work for pushing Israel to abide by the requirements of peace, and how the US can boost its pressure on Israel to achieve these requirements. Answering the question depends on the Palestinian domestic situation, first of all, and its ability to set down a new strategy, which takes into consideration what has yet to be achieved in light of the Palestinian Authority, and build on this, in order to recover lost national unity. The strategy should also take into consideration the elements that have brought the peace process to its current predicament.
With regard to restoring unity, forging a reconciliation with Hamas is urgent, along with unifying the people of Gaza and the West Bank. Without this unity, then any act taken is that of a faction, and thus unable to affect the current political formula. Such initiatives are quite difficult, as demonstrated by the complicated negotiations in the Egyptian reconciliation initiative.
As for the peace process, it has become clear until now that adhering to the Road Map by the Palestinians alone will not produce any results. This requires reviewing the strategy and authoring a new one. This should take into consideration what has been “built” at the state level, as well as the creation of forms of action to force Israel to adhere to the map. This opens a horizontal prospect for recovering Palestinian unity, or at the least setting down a new option, which Hamas will not be able to ignore without subjecting itself to a popular defeat.
Abbas chose an “overtime” period, as they say, to announce his decision, while he could have benefited from this time to review current policies and head toward a new strategy that will give renewed consideration to types of resistance to the occupation that are possible. There is peaceful resistance, of which the Palestinian president is the leading defender, during the al-Aqsa intifada. This strategy should also take into consideration the Palestinian institutional situation, which should be adapted to the requirements of strengthening the internal situation, including a call for presidential and legislative elections.
However, Abbas’ announcement of his intention to not seek re-election has delivered, especially to the Palestinian people, a contradictory message that contains frustration and despair instead of a call to prepare for the coming phrase of confrontation and hope for achieving the expectations of this people.
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