The poll used face-to-face interviews of 1,050 Palestinians in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip during different working hours, selecting one individual in each household using the Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of 156 election sites, from which 116 are located in the West Bank and 40 sites in Gaza Strip. The poll has a margin of error of 3.6%
In the October poll, 52.1 % said they would vote for President Mahmoud Abbas in the upcoming Presidential elections, if he is a candidate, while 14.5 % said they would vote for de facto Prime Minister in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh.
The difference is striking when compared to January 2009 polls, which saw the popularity of Hamas increase from 28% in a December 2008 poll to 33% in January. At the same time the popularity of Fatah dropped from 42%to 40% during the same period. In the West Bank the margin between the parties was only three percent immediately after the Israeli war on Gaza.
The drop in Hamas support may in part be explained, however, by the poll’s finding that 29.2 % said they would not participate in the elections, which Hamas condemned shortly after they were called in late October.
Overall, however, the perceived rise of Fatah popularity saw 59.1 % of respondents say Fatah has a better chance of winning the coming elections than they may have had in January.
On Abbas’ decision to call elections 23.9 % strongly supported the decision, 38.6 % somewhat support it, 23.3 % somewhat oppose it and 12.2 % strongly oppose it.
On unity and the Egyptian unity efforts, the poll found Palestinians were fragmented.
Asked whether they supported the Egyptian reconciliation paper, described a per its coverage in the “Al-Quds newspaper published on 10 September, 25.3 % said they strongly supported it, 24.6% somewhat support it, 18.7 % somewhat oppose it, and 22.6 % strongly oppose it.
Blame for the failure of the unity dialogue was similarly scattered, with 22.3% blaming Hamas, 16% Fatah, and 43.8% blamed both.
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