December 31, 2008

Israel Rejects 48-Hour Cease-Fire Plan

After five straight days of punishing air attacks, Israel rejected a proposal for a 48-hour cease-fire in its military onslaught in Gaza on Wednesday, saying it would maintain pressure on Hamas. But it did not rule out future diplomacy and was open to ways of increasing humanitarian aid.

The decision was announced after a security cabinet meeting here.

The Israeli air strikes on Gaza continued on Wednesday, and at least 20 more rockets were fired by Hamas militants in reprisal into southern Israel, including three that landed in the city of Beersheba. Mark Regev, the spokesman for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, said earlier that the country’s leaders “view it as important to keep up the pressure on Hamas.”

“We cannot give them a respite to rearm and regroup,” he said. “We need a real, sustainable solution, not a Band-Aid.” But he added that Israel would still explore ways to expedite humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in Gaza and would also explore a broader diplomatic effort to achieve a lasting cease-fire.

He and other officials said Israel was continuing to talk to American and European leaders about finding a longer-term diplomatic solution.

The idea of a 48-hour cease-fire emerged from a conversation between Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France and Defense Minister Ehud Barak of Israel. It was supposed to establish at least a temporary pause in the fighting that would allow humanitarian relief to be delivered to the besieged coastal strip.

“The leading option right now is still a ground invasion, but the target of this operation is an improved cease-fire, and if that can come without the invasion, fine,” a close aide to Mr. Barak said Tuesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he is not Mr. Barak’s authorized spokesman. “But, of course, Hamas has to agree, and there has to be a mechanism to make it work.”

On Wednesday, rockets fired by Hamas militants struck targets more than 20 miles from Gaza, displaying greater range than earlier in the conflict. In Beersheba, one hit an empty school, according to news reports. Schools in Beersheba were ordered closed Tuesday because of an earlier missile strike. The Israeli military says that, while some Hamas rockets are home-made, the longer-range missiles are more sophisticated and are smuggled into Gaza.

Israeli warplanes bombed tunnels along Gaza’s border with Egypt which provide crucial supply lines. The crump of bombing could be heard from the Egyptian side of the frontier.

With Gaza’s food and medical supplies threatened by the conflict, a British government minister, Douglas Alexander, said aid was “desperately needed.”

“The human cost of this conflict is unacceptable and the humanitarian situation is getting worse by the hour,” said Mr. Alexander, the international development secretary, as he announced a $10 million emergency aid package on Wednesday.

In Cairo, a meeting of foreign ministers from the 22-member Arab League began amid calls by some Arab leaders for Palestinians to end disputes between Hamas in Gaza and the Fatah movement led by Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, in the West Bank, according to news reports.

The latest European diplomacy began Tuesday when Mr. Kouchner met with his European Union colleagues over the Gaza crisis and called publicly for a permanent cease-fire. A similar call came from the so-called quartet of powers focused on the region — the United Nations, the European Union, the United States and Russia.

President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made phone calls to Israeli and Arab leaders to explore prospects for halting the fighting. They emphasized that any cease-fire should be “durable and sustainable,” compelling Hamas to end its rocket attacks, a State Department spokesman said.

“That is different from the cease-fire that existed in the last six months,” said the spokesman, Gordon Duguid, noting that Hamas had routinely violated the previous agreement by firing rockets into southern Israel.

The flurry of diplomacy appeared to be mostly byplay in Jerusalem and Gaza, as Israeli officials spoke of a continuing and expanding military operation, and Hamas vowed to step up its resistance. It was also clear that the number of targets available from the air was declining, making the likelihood of a ground offensive greater.

In Gaza, Hamas militants issued a taped statement vowing revenge for those killed in the Israeli air raids since Saturday and warning that a ground invasion would prove painful for Israel. Palestinian officials say that more than 370 people have been killed, among them, the United Nations says, at least 62 women and children and an unknown number of civilian men. Two sisters, ages 4 and 11, were killed in a strike in the north as concern was growing around the world that the assault was taking a terrible toll on civilians.

“It would be easier to dry the sea of Gaza than to defeat the resistance and uproot Hamas, which is in every house of Gaza,” said the statement from the military wing of Hamas. It was played on Hamas’s television station, which had been shut down by an Israeli missile but went back on the air by broadcasting from a mobile van. The statement added that if there was a ground invasion, “the children of Gaza will be collecting the body parts of your soldiers and the ruins of tanks.”

Israeli warplanes, returning repeatedly to the same section of Gaza City overnight, pummeled the main government complex with about 20 missiles, residents said Tuesday. The building had been evacuated since the start of the operation on Saturday, which also hit nearly all of Hamas’s security complexes, its university and other symbols of its sovereignty and power.

The Nakhala family, which lives next to the compound, was inspecting the damage on Tuesday morning and recounting the utter fear and panic they all felt as the missiles hit.

“We have no shelters in Gaza,” said the father, Osama Nakhala. “Where shall we go? I also have to worry about my mother, who is 80 years old and paralyzed.”

His 13-year-old son, Yousef, was with him. When asked his view of the situation, Yousef took an unusual stand for someone in Gaza, where Israel is being cursed by most everyone. “I blame Hamas. It doesn’t want to recognize Israel. If they did so there could be peace,” he said. “Egypt made a peace treaty with Israel, and nothing is happening to them.”

His brother Amjad, 16, disagreed and blamed the Palestinian president in the West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas, saying that he had sided with Israel.

Gaza City was entirely without electricity for the first time, the result of an air attack that hit the system’s infrastructure. Repair workers said they were afraid to work because of the possibility of more raids.

The few open bakeries and grocery stores had lines stretching outside as people tried to stock up. But essentials, like diapers, baby food, bread, potatoes and fresh vegetables, were in short supply and costlier than normal.

Israel sent in about 100 trucks with emergency supplies of food and medicine, the military reported.

At the Hassouna Bakery near Shifa Hospital, about 100 men and 50 women waited in separate lines to buy bread. Amal Altayan was telling others in the line that she kept her cellphone in her pocket so that if an Israeli missile destroyed her house she would be able to phone for help. The other women mocked her, saying that if a missile hit her house, she would be gone. Showing familiarity with the kind of knowledge circulating in Gaza these days, Ms. Altayan replied, “It depends. If it is an F-16 I will turn into biscuits, but if it is an Apache I may have a chance.”

Osama Alaf, 41, said he spent four hours waiting in line to buy bread. “I bought flour until now,” he said. “I don’t have cooking gas, but I make a fire out of cartons and paper and make bread that way.” Asked whom he blamed, he said, “Israel, which is slaughtering us, and whoever is cooperating with Israel, like Egypt.”

Anger at Egypt has grown across the Arab and Muslim worlds because it has declined to open its border with Gaza and is seen as cooperating with Israel.

IAF bombs Gaza mosque being used as weapons storehouse

The Israel Air Force on Wednesday evening bombed a mosque in a southern Gaza Strip which Hamas had been using to store part of its rocket arsenal.

Shin Bet officials said that over the last few days, Palestinian militants have been seen carrying Katyusha and Qassam rockets, as well as a large supply of other weapons, around the vicinity of the mosque. The Shin Vet said that these weapons were destroyed in the IAF strike.

Israeli aircraft pounded smuggling tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border earlier Wednesday, setting off a huge explosion in a fuel tunnel, witnesses said, as other aircraft hit Hamas positions in Gaza City. No casualties were reported. The military said government buildings were hit, including an office of Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh.

The IDF said Haniyeh's office was a "government target that also served as a planning, support, and finance center for terrorist activity."

The army added that the strike also hit a Hamas ammunition arsenal, a military camp and a rocket launcher.

A Palestinian medic was killed and two others wounded when an Israeli missile struck next to their ambulance during a clash east of Gaza City, Palestinians said. The IDF said it did not know of the incident

Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces has finished preparing for a ground operation in the Gaza Strip. However, it will not begin such an incursion until it receives the go-ahead from the government.

On Tuesday, at least 30 Palestinians - including two sisters aged 5 and 12 - were killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza, and Palestinians fired more than 40 rockets on southern Israel by Tuesday evening. A Katyusha rocket hit Be'er Sheva - located 37 kilometers from Gaza - for the first time on Tuesday. Ofakim and Rahat, both 25 kilometers from Gaza, were also hit by their first Katyushas.

Hamas took responsibility for the Katyushas aimed at Be'er Sheva, and its military wing said Tuesday night that it plans to fire at Israeli targets that are even further away as long as the IDF operation continues.

At least 390 Palestinians, including 36 children and nine women, have been killed by Israeli forces since Operation Cast Lead began on Saturday, according to Palestinian sources. According to Channel Two, 220 of those fatalities were members of Hamas.

The Israel Air Force continued its intensive search for rocket launchers on Tuesday. "We haven't finished the work yet," IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi told President Shimon Peres on Tuesday.

Israel bombed dozens of smuggling tunnels in Rafah Tuesday night, the second such attack in two days. The attack came after Israel advised the Egyptian army to move its soldiers away from the border so they wouldn't get hurt in the bombing. Aside from the tunnels, the number of targets attacked by the air force decreased on Tuesday.

Israeli warplanes bombed the Hamas government complex in Tel al-Hawa, in the Gaza City area, knocking down the seven-story buildings housing Hamas' foreign, finance and labor ministries early Tuesday. In a separate attack, Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh's office was bombed a second time.

The Israel Navy also took part in the operation, with navy ships attacking targets along the Gaza coast.

Hamas accused Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of establishing an emergency operations room to prepare plans for a Fatah takeover of Gaza if Israel begins a ground incursion. Hamas' military wing vowed that if Israel attempted to bring its troops into the Strip, the children of Gaza would soon be collecting soldiers' body parts.

Barak asks for additional reserve troops

Defense Minister Ehud Barak asked the cabinet Tuesday night to approve the mobilization of an additional 2,510 reserve forces soldiers by means of an emergency call-up order (Tzav Shmoneh).

If approved, they will join the 6,700 reservists whose mobilization the cabinet approved on Sunday. Barak apprised Cabinet Secretary Oved Yehezkel of his decision in writing, and requested approval of the order from the cabinet by phone. The resolution will be submitted to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee within 48 hours, as required by law.

The additional reservists will be deployed in the Home Front Command, the Border Police, the Navy, the Logistics Branch, Military Intelligence and Ground Forces headquarters.

The Home Front Command will begin training activities on Wednesday in the communities that were only included in the rocket-strike range as of Monday, such as Gan Yavne, Yavne and Rehovot. Some reservists will be deployed to the liaison units working with local governments in these
communities. Physicians and psychologists will be called up to assist local governments in the south with their emergency response programs.

The head of the Israel Defense Force's Central Command, Yair Golan, is planning to introduce an experimental program that will divide the larger towns and cities in the area under attack into districts to facilitate the use of volunteers. He also wants to dispatch students in military academies to the south to aid the communities.

The Central Command plans to focus its activities on Wednesday on Ofakim, which was hit by Katyusha rockets on Tuesday for the first time.

Military officials believe 2,000 rockets remain in terrorist organizations' arsenals, compared to nearly 3,000 last week. More than 200 rockets were fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip since Operation Cast Lead began.

Hundreds more were destroyed in Israel Air Force sorties, as were rocket launchers. The same officials believe that Hamas and Islamic Jihad have a few dozen Katyusha rockets with a range of 40 kilometers, and a few hundred 20 kilometer rockets.

Army officials are very concerned about the 120 kilometer Iranian-made mortar shells that are causing heavy damage in Gaza-area communities and IDF bases. The assumption is that some of the rockets fired in the past few days were aimed at Air Force bases in the south, although none have hit their mark. About one quarter of the rockets fired this week from Gaza hit populated areas, with the remainder falling in open areas.

The IDF believes that about two thirds of Hamas' underground rocket launch sites in the northern Gaza Strip were destroyed in the first round of Air Force sorties, on Saturday.

Additional bunkers were destroyed in the days that followed, after a way was found of striking them when civilians were not in the vicinity.

The IDF has made frequent use of what is known as "knocking on the roof": Militants are warned by phone when a residential building used to store arms will be bombed, and told to vacate the premised together with their neighbors. The weapons caches are hit only after the residents leave.

Hamas has tried placing civilians on the roofs of such buildings when the phone call warning comes in. In these cases, the IDF fired antitank missiles near the building, and in a few cases the residents left.

Behind closed doors, U.S. seeks Israel exit strategy

While publicly declaring strong support for Israel, the Bush administration is increasingly nervous about the 4-day-old campaign in the Gaza Strip and is urging its ally to settle on a timetable and exit strategy, say foreign diplomats and Middle East experts close to the discussions.

U.S. officials are concerned that the campaign could drag on without destroying Hamas, and might even bolster support for the militant group -- just as the 2006 Israeli campaign in Lebanon strengthened Hezbollah, they say.

"You're not hearing that same confidence you did in 2006 that the Israeli military can impose a new strategic reality and should go full force," said one Arab diplomat in Washington. "There's a real contrast between their words then and now."

U.S. officials were talking intensively Tuesday to Arab and European powers about the possibility of a two- or three-day cease-fire, diplomats said. U.S. diplomacy is complicated by differences between the White House and the State Department, these sources said.

President Bush has been a steadfast supporter of Israel's right to take whatever steps it considers necessary for its defense, and U.S. officials are not pressuring Israel to stop fighting before it believes it can safely do so.

But the State Department must deal with the growing international pressure for a halt in the campaign. U.S. officials are calling for a "durable" cease-fire -- meaning the Israelis need to stop fighting only after Hamas has done enough to convince them that rocket attacks will not resume within hours.

Yet U.S. officials have keen memories of what happened in Lebanon. The administration gave broad support to that campaign, which Israeli officials said could "eviscerate" Hezbollah. The war, which lasted 34 days and involved intense ground and air attacks, strengthened America's enemies and weakened its friends in the region, most observers agree.

"The United States put itself in a vulnerable position internationally with that commitment," said Daniel Senor, a former administration official now affiliated with the Council on Foreign Relations. "Just like Israel, the Bush administration is thinking now about the lessons of the Lebanon war."

U.S. officials have also been warning Israel to take care to avoid any single strike that, by inflicting devastating civilian casualties, could further swing international opinion against it.

That happened in July 2006, when Israeli warplanes hit a building in the Lebanese village of Qana, inflicting dozens of casualties.

The Qana attack "was a big turning point in that war," Senor said. "The administration wants Israel to execute this operation in ways that avoid the mistakes, setbacks and blemishes of 2006."

Of the almost 400 Palestinian deaths in the latest violence, the United Nations estimates that 62 were civilians. Four Israeli civilians have been killed by rocket fire from Gaza.

Senor said the Americans' desire for clarity about the end game and exit strategy may put them in conflict with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who wants to preserve his options and keep his enemies guessing.

Though Bush is in his last three weeks on the job, he and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have an enormous stake in the outcome of the battle.

They have been claiming that their peace efforts have been yielding results, but the war has weakened their foremost Palestinian ally, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, while raising the prospect that it will give his Hamas rivals both greater public support and political power.

The fighting also has resulted in criticism of U.S. allies Egypt and Jordan, both of which have diplomatic relations with Israel and are regarded by some Arabs as unable to halt the current conflict. That could enhance the status of Iran and its hard-line president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has been under tremendous pressure because of his country's slumping economy.

The Arab diplomat, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the diplomacy, said that until the offensive, "Hamas was in a bind -- their popularity was declining. . . . Now they could be the winner."

White House and State Department officials declined to comment on what they are telling the Israelis. A State Department spokesman, Gordon Duguid, said U.S. diplomats were "working as hard as we can to help reestablish a cease-fire that can be fully respected, one that's sustainable, one that's durable."

Foreign diplomats who have been talking to U.S. officials say they see a difference in emphasis between the White House and State Department.

On Saturday, when the Israeli campaign began, Rice issued a statement calling for restoration of the cease-fire, which had been mediated by Egypt and which Hamas often violated.

Now, however, both State Department and White House officials are referring to a "durable cease-fire," entailing new and stricter terms.

A diplomat from another Middle Eastern country said there appeared to be a "back and forth" between the State Department and White House, leaving the U.S. position in flux.

Senor said the White House was emphasizing support for Israel while Rice was conveying that the State Department could not indefinitely hold off international pressure for an end to the campaign.

Ziad Asali, president of the American Task Force on Palestine, which lobbies for the Palestinian cause in Washington, said he thought U.S. concerns had been heightened by the possibility of Israel sending in infantry.

Such a move would probably mean higher civilian casualties and more provocative media coverage that could inflame Arab public opinion and "have real consequences for the stability of several of the regimes in the region," he said.

Steven J. Rosen, a former senior official with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, said U.S. concerns were being heightened by fears that Israel probably cannot destroy Hamas, a view shared by many Israelis. Washington and moderate Arab governments in the neighborhood would have more patience if they thought there was a realistic chance Hamas could be overthrown, he said.

Rosen said the Americans, like the Israelis, wonder whether Hamas will emerge politically stronger, even if its military arsenal is badly depleted.

In these circumstances, he said, the U.S. message is: "I know why you're getting in -- but how are you going to get out? How does this end?"

Arabs outraged by bloodshed in Gaza venting their anger at Egypt, as much as at Israel

The Israeli bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip has unleashed outrage across the Middle East — but the anger is being vented as much against Egypt as it is at Israel.

Protesters have attacked Egyptian embassies, accusing Cairo of helping Israel's longtime blockade of the territory and even giving a green light for the offensive — a sign of the gulf between an Arab public and some U.S.-allied governments that dislike Gaza's Hamas rulers.

Demonstrators broke into the Egyptian consulate in the Yemeni city of Aden on Tuesday, trashing the interior, throwing computers out windows and burning the Egyptian flag on the roof. More than 500 protesters massed outside Egypt's embassy in Syria, as others did days earlier in Lebanon.

During a demonstration in the Lebanese city of Sidon this week, people chanted slogans denouncing Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak as "a pig" and a "collaborator" with Israel.

Mubarak, whose nation is one of only two Arab states to have peace treaties with Israel, on Tuesday accused his critics of seeking "political profit" from the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza.

His government vehemently denied backing Israel's attack. And the foreign minister, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, announced that Egypt was working with Turkey, which has strong ties with Israel, on an initiative to stop the offensive, restore a truce and open Gaza's borders under international supervision.

Egypt already had angered many Arabs by largely closing its Rafah border crossing into Gaza since the Islamic militants of Hamas violently took over the territory in 2007. Rafah is the sole access to Gaza that does not go through Israel, which has imposed a suffocating economic blockade on the coastal strip.

Embarrassing for Egyptian officials, Mubarak met with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni only a day before Israel launched its assault, and the foreign minister — though he urged Israel to show restraint — was photographed smiling and shaking hands with her at a news conference.

Now, with television across the region showing the destruction and death in Gaza, Hamas and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah — both allies of Syria and Iran — are stoking the anger against Egypt by accusing it of giving an OK to Israel to end Hamas rule in Gaza.

"We do not accept that the attack on Gaza be announced from the heart of Cairo," Mohammed Nazzal, a Hamas senior leader, shouted on Al-Arabiya television Sunday, referring to the Livni visit.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah charged that Egypt's government was "taking part in the crime" against Palestinians and called on Egyptians to rise up and force the Rafah crossing open.

The anger could severely damage the key role Egypt has played as a mediator between Hamas on one side and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israel on the other.

Egypt has been in a tough position because of Hamas's control of Gaza.

It worries Hamas rule is boosting Iran's influence in the region and could fuel Islamic militancy on its own soil. And it is under pressure from Israel, Abbas and the U.S. not to make any concessions that would bolster Hamas.

Yet, Egypt's leaders don't want to be seen as fueling a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Egyptian television gave heavy coverage to several truckloads of medical and other supplies that Egypt sent in through Rafah and 36 wounded Palestinians who were brought out to Egyptian hospitals.

But on Tuesday, Mubarak insisted Egypt would not fully open Rafah unless Abbas' Palestinian Authority controls the crossing and European monitors required under a 2005 agreement are present. Otherwise, he said, opening the crossing would "deepen the breach" between Hamas and Abbas, who Egypt's government calls the legitimate leader of the Palestinians.

Aboul Gheit, the foreign minister, initially seemed to blame Hamas for provoking the Israeli offensive, saying soon after it began Saturday that "those who didn't listen" to warnings carry the responsibility.

Such talk put Egypt in the uncomfortable position of echoing the arguments of Israel, which says it acted to halt Hamas rocket attacks on southern Israeli towns. Since then, Egypt has been more vocal in its calls for Israel to stop the bombardment without conditions.

On Tuesday, Aboul Gheit denied that Egypt did not do enough to prevent the Israeli offensive, saying Mubarak warned Livni not to attack Gaza "because it will have repercussions on the region."

But the clamor over Gaza has underlined an increasing divide in the Middle East that pits pro-Western countries like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia against Syria and Iran and their allied militant groups, Hamas and Hezbollah.

In an unusually vocal criticism for an Egyptian politician, Abdullah Kamal, a member of Egypt's ruling party, denounced Hamas on Monday as a pawn of Iran, saying Iran and Syria are trying to make "Iran as the leader of the region through its militias, whether Hezbollah or Hamas."

Hamas: PA conspiring with Israel

As the IDF offensive concluded its fourth day on Tuesday, Hamas accused the Palestinian Authority of planning to return to the Gaza Strip with the help of Israel.

According to a report published by the Hamas-affiliated Palestine Information Center Web site, PA President Mahmoud Abbas has ordered his officials in Ramallah to set up an "emergency room" to prepare for reassuming control over the Gaza Strip after the Hamas government is toppled by Israel.

It said the emergency room consisted of commanders of the PA security forces and the interior minister.

The report claimed that Abbas was coordinating his moves with the Egyptians and the Saudis.

It also quoted sources in Ramallah as saying that Abbas's top adviser, Nimmer Hammad, phoned Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad last week and told him that the PA "believes in Israel's right to liquidate Hamas."

Earlier this week, two senior PA officials told The Jerusalem Post that the PA was "ready" to return to the Gaza Strip when and if the Hamas government was overthrown.

The Hamas allegation, which has been strongly denied by the PA, is an indication of the growing tensions between the Islamist movement and Abbas's Fatah faction in the wake of the IDF offensive.

Tensions between the two parties peaked earlier this week when Abbas and other PA leaders held Hamas responsible for the current violence because of its refusal to extend the cease-fire with Israel.

Hamas officials are convinced that one of the main goals of the IDF operation is to remove the Hamas government from power so as to pave the way for the return of Abbas's men to the Gaza Strip.

Hamas legislator and spokesman Mushir al-Masri claimed that Abbas had known in advance about the exact timing of the "surprise" IDF attack.

"It's no secret that Abbas knew in advance about the attack," he said. "This is not our analysis; rather, it's based on information we received recently."

A Hamas official in Gaza City also claimed that former Fatah security commanders who fled the Strip during the Hamas takeover in the summer of 2007 were holding meetings in Cairo and Ramallah to discuss returning home.

"These Fatah members are working with the Egyptians, Israelis and Americans," he said. "They include [former Fatah security chiefs] Muhammad Dahlan and Rashid Abu Shabak."

The Hamas official accused the Fatah representatives of providing Israel with "vital information" about the location of Hamas security installations.

A leaflet distributed by a Fatah group in Gaza urged supporters of the faction to prepare for the possibility of taking control over the Gaza Strip.

The leaflet said that the Palestinians in the Strip were being held "hostage" by Hamas, which has humiliated and starved them.

It called on all Hamas members in Gaza who were not involved in crimes against Fatah and the Palestinian people to seek refuge with the heads of major clans to avoid being punished.

Fatah also called on all its members and supporters to be prepared to assume full control over the Gaza Strip "to impose law and order and defend the Palestinian people."

However, a Fatah official in Ramallah denied that his faction was behind the leaflet, saying he did not rule out the possibility that it was part of Hamas's "fabrications."

The official said he was unaware of any plans by the PA to return to the Gaza Strip.

"We want to see an end to the brutal Hamas regime, but that should be done by the Palestinians and not Israel," he said. "Hamas is so desperate that they have begun spreading lies and inciting against the PA and Egypt."

Israel's goal, and Hamas': a cease-fire on better terms

The truce between Hamas and Israel ended in the early hours of December 19, but the accusations over why it ended have followed the missiles and rockets across the border.

Hamas accuses Israel of not complying with the terms of the six-month Egyptian-mediated truce under which Israel was expected to end its siege and blockade of the Gaza Strip, reopen the commercial border crossing between Gaza and Israel and halt its military activities against Gazans.

Israel holds Hamas and other Palestinian groups responsible for not respecting their part of the truce. Israel claims that the firing of Qassam rockets and mortar shells did not stop and accuses Hamas of exploiting the truce by conducting more training and building better fortifications along the border between Gaza and Israel. Israel has also said straight out that the border crossings would not be fully reopened without the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, captured by Hamas in 2006.

In the knowledge that Israel had sent its envoy Amos Gilad to Egypt to renew the truce a week before it expired, Hamas felt it could hold out for better conditions. The Islamist movement seemed convinced that the political leadership in Israel was not interested in a new war in Gaza. Hamas also felt that Israel wanted to exploit the political divide between the West Bank and Gaza as long as possible and therefore was not in a hurry to start a war with Hamas.

But, to the contrary, the Israeli security establishment was busy with the long-term preparation of a major military operation and was carefully gathering intelligence, engaged in secret discussions, operational deception and spreading disinformation to mislead the public. Ehud Barak, the Israeli defense minister, reportedly instructed the Israeli armed forces to prepare for the operation over six months ago, even as Israel was beginning to negotiate a new truce agreement with Hamas.

Hamas fell into the trap. Israel is in the middle of an election campaign and the governing coalition is looking for excuses to justify a military attack on Hamas and its infrastructure in Gaza. Some of the right-wing parties in Israel, mainly the Likud headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, were accusing the government of not doing enough to stop the firing of missiles from Gaza and even called on Barak to resign from his position.

According to Israeli public opinion polls, the Labor party headed by Barak will be the main loser in the coming elections while the Likud stands to become the biggest party in Parliament. In other words, this was Barak's golden opportunity to launch a military strike against Hamas and improve his standing with the Israeli electorate. As a result, Israel launched the largest Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip since it last captured the territory in June 1967, leaving almost 400 people dead and hundreds more wounded at the time of writing.

What comes next is extremely important. Whether Israel halts its air strikes against Gaza or continues the war and launches a ground invasion will depend on Israeli goals and interests. Israel has learned some lessons from the 2006 Lebanon war and has limited its immediate goal to ending the firing of missiles from Gaza. But military operations are like snowballs: The more momentum they gather the bigger they become. Soon Israel might find itself launching a full and comprehensive invasion if it calculates that the cost will be minimal.

But Israeli calculations will also depend on Hamas' behavior. If Hamas launches a large number of long-range missiles at major Israeli cities like Ashkelon and Ashdod, it will provide Israel with another golden opportunity to go all the way. But if Hamas restrains itself, Israel might reconsider its position. Israel expects Hamas to retaliate and launch a barrage of missiles on Israeli towns and cities, but Hamas has so far been careful. The movement knows that any irrational behavior will cost it its government and potentially its existence in the Gaza Strip.

Nevertheless, Israel is hedging its bets. The army announced its intention to call up 6,700 reservists and Israeli officials said some reservists had already been mobilized to help protect Israeli towns and villages on the Gaza border from retaliatory Palestinian rocket attacks. Hundreds of Israeli infantry and armored corps troops are headed for the Gaza Strip border in preparation for a possible ground invasion.

Was the war on Gaza inevitable? One can argue that Israel's genuine interest with its air strikes is strikingly similar to Hamas' interest in firing scores of rockets into Israeli population centers: to force a cease-fire on better terms than the one just ended. For Hamas, this largely means securing an easing of Israeli economic sanctions against Gazans. For Israel, this centers on ending rocket fire. For both sides, it means a prisoner exchange involving Shalit and hundreds of jailed Hamas members.

Hamas racks up its first diplomatic victory in Gaza campaign

President Hosni Mubarak could not keep silent any longer about the attack on Egypt in the press. His decision to explicitly state Egypt's position that the West Bank and Gaza are part of the same country, and that the Rafah crossing will open only under the conditions of the 2005 agreement (to which Egypt is not a signatory), is part of the public diplomacy Mubarak has been dragged into against his will.

Mubarak would have preferred for Hamas to appeal to him directly for a cease-fire, which Egypt would negotiate with Israel. But Hamas, like Hezbollah, chose a different and probably more effective path.

Hamas, by enlisting public opinion through the Arab media, holding street demonstrations and creating public pressure, may very well achieve a cease-fire without being forced to ask for it.

Hamas has experience in winning public support, as it learned last January when it broke through the border fence with Egypt. Egypt was forced to give in to public pressure and let the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians cross the border and buy goods on the Egyptian side.

The knowledge that Arab public opinion, as opposed to the Arab regimes that speak with several different voices, may influence policy is new.

In a region known for not paying attention to public opinion, or where public opinion is dictated by the regimes, an appeal to the masses has usually been viewed as an act of desperation, not policy.

Hamas can rack up its first victory for its methods as several European countries are already talking about a "humanitarian" cease-fire, and Egypt has been fixed in the public eye as a collaborator with Israel. This will make it hard for Egypt to act as a mediator between Hamas and Israel, and the war in Gaza will require international involvement and certainly active Syrian involvement to end the hostilities.

In that way Gaza goes from being a local dispute between Israel and Hamas to the status of half a state with the same status as Israel, so hopes Hamas.

Such a step could never have come off through regular diplomatic channels, where Hamas would have appealed to Egypt or some other mediator, but only by enlisting the masses in the region and by bypassing the Palestinian Authority, which is not functioning during this crisis.

Mubarak's efforts in his speech on Tuesday to relink the West Bank and Gaza and place Gaza again under the PA's authority says something about the diplomatic battlefield. A separate cease-fire with Gaza under Arab and international pressure may be interpreted as a recognition of the separation between Gaza and the West Bank - and recognition of the Hamas government. This will place Gaza under the diplomatic auspices of Iran and Syria, on the border with Egypt.

Nasrallah and War on Egypt

Rather than having to listen to him, I read a transcript of the speech delivered by “king” Hassan Nasrallah, as there is a difference between watching the performance of the leader of the Iranian-affiliated party and actually reading what he said. Nasrallah did not hesitate in attacking Egypt, and calling on the Arabs to make today, and every day, another Battle of Karbala!

Nasrallah incited the Egyptians against their own country and leadership, accusing Egypt of treason and of playing a part in the crime [of the Israeli attack on Gaza]. Nasrallah also attacked the Arab countries that have signed peace agreements with Israel, calling for Egypt and the Arab world to take up arms and support Hamas and the resistance. He considered the disproportionate difference in strength an excuse for the weak, saying that martyrdom and sacrifice were inevitable.

This is what Nasrallah said, but what he failed to mention is far more important and dangerous. Nasrallah did not dare say a word about the Syrian who announced his willingness for direct negotiation with Israel despite the escalation of aggression in Gaza committed by the Israeli machine. Instead of mentioning this, he decided to attack Egypt.

The other issue is that Nasrallah asked about the whereabouts of “our oil and money”. Let us ask him; what happened to the “pure” money, and where is [Iranian-built] Shahab 1 or even Shahab 10 to help rescue Hamas? Instead of Nasrallah declaring war on Israel in solidarity with Hamas or Gaza, he declared war on Egypt.

Hamas rushed to Hezbollah’s rescue in 2006 [Israel-Hezbollah summer war] following the abduction of two Israeli soldiers at the hands of Hezbollah, and even opened up another battlefront by abducting Gilad Shalit themselves, so why has Nasrallah not come to Hamas’s rescue today, especially considering that Khalid Meshal said that Hamas was awaiting action, not words, from Hezbollah?

Hassan Nasrallah, who made an appearance on Sunday to stir up the Arabs and Arabism, who is the same man who occupied Beirut and tortured its Sunni citizens, along with Iranian agents and nobody else, today wants us to follow the instructions of [Supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah] Khamenei. This is what Nasrallah called for in his recent speech.

What many did not notice in Nasrallah’s address is that he devoted half of the speech to attacking Egypt and incitement against it, whilst the second half was devoted to attacking elements within Lebanon. Do you know why? This is one point.

Nasrallah says that he has no knowledge of the Katyusha rockets discovered in South Lebanon a few days ago, saying that those who claim that Hezbollah knew about these rockets are finding excuses for Israel to wage a war against his party. Half of his speech was about that.

So if Nasrallah doesn’t want to provide Israel with an excuse, shouldn’t it be the same for Gaza? Shouldn’t Hamas turn away from Iranian assistance to strengthen it when all this does is torture the people of Gaza and subject them to brutal Israeli force?

Why should there be no excuse with regards to Lebanon whilst at the same time, Ismail Haniyeh calls for the people of Gaza to persevere until obliteration? Why does seek to ensure that there is no excuse in Lebanon whilst there are calls for Egypt to surrender its security and decisions to Hamas and Iran, and to be dragged into another war with Israel? Would it not be more useful to call on “steadfast Syria” to open a battlefront along the Golan Heights, rather than asking Egypt?

The only advantage to Nasrallah’s speech is that it revealed to the world what we have been saying the whole time: that Iran is a real threat to Arab security, as today it launched a war against Egypt, tomorrow against Saudi Arabia, and then the whole house of cards will collapse.