Joshua Mitnick
The Christian Science Monitor
April 21, 2010 - 12:00am

President Mahmoud Abbas has undergone weeks of medical treatment after a fall in the bathroom left him with a "major bruise" on his back, says Palestinian peace negotiator and PLO member Saeb Erekat. He denied a report in Arabic daily Al Quds Al Arabi and also in Israeli media that Mr. Abbas is in declining health.

Mr. Erekat says that Abbas, 75, is in the final week of treatment at Jordan Hospital in Amman after slipping in the bathtub last month. Abbas has been residing at his private residence in the Jordanian capital, according to Erekat, who characterized the suggestion the president was suffering from an illness as "absolute nonsense." Abbas has continued to carry out official duties, wrapping up a three-day visit to Egypt this week.

Nevertheless, the speculation is a reminder that the Palestinian leader's death would leave behind a welter of potential successors with paltry experience on the international stage and limited domestic popular support, as well as an unclear electoral process to coronate a new leader.

Such a scenario could leave the Palestinians without a credible figure to serve as an interlocutor for a treaty with Israel, dealing a blow to the peace process.

"It's going to put a stop to the idea of a Palestinian state in 2011" as the Palestinians are calling for, says Meir Javedanfar, a Tel Aviv-based Middle East analyst.

"This health scare should be used as an opportunity by the Palestinian Liberation Organization to clarify the line of succession when Abbas steps down, because nobody lives forever. It would also help Abbas' legacy if he manages the question of succession in an effective manner."

Elections for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority were supposed to be held in January 2010 – the expiration of Abbas' five-year term in office. But there is no vote on the horizon because of the unresolved rift between Hamas, which seized control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 and won the last Palestinian parliamentary elections, and Abbas' Fatah party, which held on to power in the West Bank.

Potential successors
Though Abbas announced at the end of last year that he doesn't plan to seek reelection, he has remained in office to serve out what has become an open-ended tenure in lieu of a rapprochement between Hamas and Fatah. An unexpected resignation by Abbas and pressure for a vote could intensify the standoff between his Western-backed secular government in the West Bank and the Islamist party in Gaza.

What's more, Abbas has no heir apparent – a reminder of the uncertainty following the 2004 death Yasser Arafat. The constitution of the Palestinian Authority doesn't provide for a vice president who can immediately step into the shoes of a head of state, according to Palestinian political experts.

Outside of Abbas, the most popular figure in his Fatah party is Marwan Barghouti, though he was arrested in 2002 and is currently serving consecutive life sentences in Israel for planning deadly attacks during the First and Second Intifadas. Beyond Barghouti there is no consensus on a Fatah leader, accelerating infighting in a party already riven by internal rivalry.

Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh is the next most popular figure after Barghouti, though the US and western allies are likely to boycott a politician from an Islamist party that doesn't recognize Israel. Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad is favored in the international community and has been gaining credibility among Palestinians for his plan to create a de facto state by 2011, but he is not a member of the ruling Fatah party.

"There isn't anyone you can identify as the next leader. Palestinians feel insecurity because they don't know who will come if Abbas leaves office," says Mohammed Dejani, a political science professor at Al Quds University. "It will be the same problem as with Arafat."


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