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Summary
• Despite the current stalemate between Israel and the Palestinians, the issue of Palestinian
statehood is sure to reemerge.
• Israeli national security thinking on Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution has undergone a revolutionary change in the past two decades from total rejection to broad acceptance.
• After the 1967 war, Israeli thinking was characterized by the denial of the existence of a Palestinian national identity, and the perception that a Palestinian state would pose an existential threat to Israel.
• The first intifada, which broke out at the end of 1987, convinced the Israeli security community that the denial of Palestinian national identity was pointless and that only a political solution could resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although security measures alone may have contained the conflict, they simultaneously perpetuated it.
• At the same time, Israel’s regional threat perceptions began to change as the conventional
balance of power tilted in Israel’s favor, and the likelihood of large-scale ground war was gradually replaced by the threats of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles on one hand, and terrorism and guerrilla warfare on the other.
• These new perceptions led Israel’s political leadership to initiate the Oslo process, which enjoyed wide support among the security community. This process led to mutual
recognition between the state of Israel and the Palestinian people, and implicitly to Israel’s recognition of the Palestinian right to statehood.
• The collapse of the Oslo process in 2000 and the outbreak of the second intifada had a conflicting impact on Israeli national security thinking. On one hand it had a moderating effect on Israeli thinking about the terms of the resolution of the conflict
and led to broad acceptance of Palestinian statehood, while on the other it deepened Israel’s mistrust of the Palestinians and shook its belief in the feasibility of negotiating
a permanent status agreement with the Palestinians.
• The most salient facet of present Israeli national security thinking is the growing
importance of demography over geography because current population trends threaten Israel’s Jewish and democratic character. As the acquisition of territory has become less important, national security is being defined in broader terms to include threats to the character of the state.
• The wide acceptance of Palestinian statehood has not precluded an intense debate on the nature of this state and its relationship with Israel. Those who assume that it will be a dysfunctional state hostile to Israel favor unilateral separation, while those who believe in the feasibility of a Palestinian state living in peace with Israel continue to argue for a negotiated settlement.
To download the full report please click below:
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
| sr177.pdf [2] | 276.74 KB |
Links:
[1] http://www.americantaskforce.org/resources
[2] http://www.americantaskforce.org/sites/default/files/sr177.pdf
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