During the eight-day offensive against Gaza, Hezbollah [2] in Lebanon was prepared for any possible assault by Israel. As the Israeli offensive ended, Hezbollah’s leadership tried to learn from the new experience gained by the Palestinian factions in their fight against the Israeli army. During and after the war on Gaza, Hezbollah has acted as if it were part of the same multiparty battlefield against Israel. Consequently, the group has been deeply involved in Gaza offensive. Hezbollah has probably contributed to the victories scored by the Palestinian parties in Gaza over the past few years, by leaking expertise and smuggling arms into the besieged strip.
In light of Hezbollah’s deep involvement in Gaza offensive, the Israeli war on the strip seems to be a sort of practical “simulation” to a wider war, which would include Lebanon or Iran. This explains why Hezbollah is making extensive efforts to analyze the milestones and outcomes of the recent offensive on Gaza.
This last “installment” of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has allowed Hezbollah to effectively study the real military potential of the Israeli enemy, especially after the 2006 war on Lebanon and the 2008 offensive against Gaza. After these two wars, [Israel] held several meetings, developed investigation committees, and conducted maneuvers in order to fill the gaps related to the potential of the Israeli military, which became evident during the aforementioned wars.
Although Hezbollah needs a substantial amount of time to draw all necessary conclusions from the recent offensive on Gaza, the party has thus far concluded the following:
• Israeli military intelligence lacks a clear vision regarding the size and quality of the missiles possessed by the Palestinian resistance. This explains why Israel was in a complete state of shock after the Palestinian resistance bombarded Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. If Israeli Intelligence agencies are unaware of Gaza’s “hidden potential”, how many surprising details does Israel miss out regarding Hezbollah’s armaments?
• Once again, it seems that the Israeli Air Force cannot settle any battles, while at the same time the land forces avoid involving themselves in any assaults by land.
• The Israeli internal front is still fragile and vulnerable, despite all of the efforts made over the last few years to reinforce the front’s resilience. In fact, Israeli forces have undergone several maneuvers and training exercises. However, as warning alarms sounded in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, the Israeli people freaked out, even before the Palestinian resistance’s missiles were launched. These missiles shattered the Israeli people’s confidence in their leaders’ reassurances.
•The few missiles that were launched on Israel’s main cities knocked the Israeli forces off balance. Consequently, Israel immediately called for a cease-fire to catch its breath. This clearly reveals the enemy’s weaknesses, mainly with respect to regaining control and balance.
• Despite its expensive cost, the “Iron Dome” missile defense system cannot provide real protection for Israelis. It looks more like a “perforated screen” that can barely intercept tens or hundreds of missiles. So, how can this missile defense system block thousands of missiles launched from Lebanon [3]?
Hezbollah still hides many trump cards and quality weapons. In his speech delivered on the Ashura holiday, Hassan Nasrallah confirmed that thousands of rockets would hit the occupied Palestinian territories if Israel attacked Lebanon. He added that the battlefield against Israel would include all Palestinian territories. Nasrallah’s message reflected a substantial, strategic development in Hezbollah’s capabilities since 2006.
Well-informed sources — who are aware of Hezbollah’s real potential — confirmed, “In the event of any attack on Lebanon, the Israelis will get the shock of their lives when they find out about the immense weaponry that Hezbollah possesses today. Most importantly, Israel will be stunned by Hezbollah’s high-precision missiles that can hit specific targets according to geographic coordinates.”
The same sources added that during the July 2006 war [4], it took Hezbollah 33 days to defeat Israel and exhaust its military. However, [they said]: “If a new conflict arises today, Hezbollah will be able to defeat Israel after only a few days. For Israeli, the July War will look like a picnic compared to the surprises Hezbollah has in store for the enemy in the future.”
Sources close to Hezbollah believe that it's very unlikely that Israel will wage a war on Lebanon and Iran, “particularly after Israel’s recent experience in Gaza.” They added that Israel used to believe that Hezbollah exaggerated in describing its own potential, as part of psychological warfare. However, Israel is nowadays more convinced of Hezbollah’s defense capabilities. Consequently, the Israelis are increasingly concerned about Hezbollah’s military potential. They believe that since the Palestinian factions used quality missiles during the recent assault on Gaza, without a doubt Hezbollah must own a lot of sophisticated weaponry, in terms of quantity and quality, in light of the party’s considerable scope of activities.
Such sources believe that the “realpolitik” might considerably affect Israel’s political considerations in the next stage. However, Hezbollah should be on guard “as the enemy will try to compensate for restrictions it faces in the field, by inciting disturbances and unrest so that Hezbollah will become implicated in such internal conflicts.” Israel hopes that these internal conflicts will help it achieve the goals it failed to achieve in direct battles. Moreover, Israel might plan further assassinations to reach its goals. Therefore, all Lebanese should work hard to thwart all of Israel’s future plans.
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