For several months now, Israel and Hamas are maintaining a complex balance of terror along the Gaza Strip border. The relative calm is kept despite rockets being fired at Israel by extremist groups supporting al-Qaida (sometimes with a nod from Hamas, sometimes with its indirect assistance), and despite Israeli airstrikes against members of these groups. It is true that lately the lulls between escalation to escalation have become shorter, but still there is no room for comparison to the situation along the border during the years that preceded Operation Cast Lead in 2008.
The rise in tensions during recent months reflects, for the first time, a real threat on the balance of terror. Some of the more extreme groups, loosely-affiliated with al Qaida are busy forming a complex network of activists and weapons. This is being done under Hamas' nose, and sometimes even with its encouragement – some of these activists have ties with Hamas or are even paid by the organization. At this point, the network is extensive enough to set the region ablaze, by constantly launching rockets at the Negev, or by arranging terror attacks on the "Het" route from Gaza to Israel through the Sinai desert.
The Israeli dilemma hasn't changed since the collapse of Mubarak's regime and the Egyptian loss of control in Sinai. Since Israel's freedom to act in the Sinai is extremely limited, the IDF is forced to limit its actions against members of the various Jihad groups to the Gaza Strip, before they go into the tunnels en route to the Sinai. This is the background to the four airstrikes launched by the Air Force on the Gaza Strip in one single day, last week. In addition to the danger that the organizations wll respond, there is also the danger – that materialized once last week – that Hamas be dragged into the fray. At present, it seems that Hamas controls its activists and is avoiding a total escalation. Still, recent events cast doubts over Israel's ability to maintain quiet along the Gaza border much longer.
This might also have an effect on the current election campaign. One of Prime Minister's Benjamin Netanyahu's main selling points is expected to be his success in maintain the relative calm along Israel's borders, during most of the four years his government was in power. But as sirens sound in the Negev more and more frequently, his political rivals may exploit the situation to their political gain.
A more prolonged escalation could cause problems for the Netanyahu government also in a political context, if the residents surrounding Gaza will voice their grievances over what they conceive as the compromising of their security, especially now, after the children of the Negev returned to school at the High Holidays' end.
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