A year ago, in private conversations, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak marked the winter of 2013 as the time for elections - and not because of the budget. The reason was U.S. President Barack Obama. Netanyahu wanted Obama to have as little time as possible to take revenge on him. The thing is, now Republican candidate Mitt Romney might win. To risk losing eight months with him as president - months so decisive for a war with Iran - is a tough gamble for Netanyahu. Until the Knesset approves a date for early elections, nothing is final.
In any case, many people pretend that the coming elections are an extension of the previous elections: Instead of "Tzipi or Bibi," we have "Shelly or Bibi," and some are looking for another "or." This is a mistake. Leaders and parties are important, but in Israel there are only blocs. To borrow a phrase from legendary American football coach Vince Lombardi, the blocs aren't everything, they're the only thing. Anyone who doesn't understand that will find himself like Shimon Peres at the Knesset podium with a government that has slipped through his fingers.
Sixty-one is the magic number - a Knesset majority. It's not sufficient, it's essential. No right-wing or religious party will let the non-right-wing bloc set up a government if it doesn't have a majority of its own. It doesn't matter for what sum. Only if the non-right-wing bloc has a majority of its own can the religious parties or a defeated Likud consider joining.
That was the secret behind Yitzhak Rabin's turnaround - he knew how to turn the essential into the sufficient when he created a bloc with the non-Jewish parties that supported his government from the outside. That's the secret of any future turnaround.
To achieve that 61, it's of course good if there's a clear leader of the non-right-wing bloc, but this isn't essential. In Israel there have been two landslide turnarounds without a leader considered an alternative. The first and surprising example happened in 1977. Menachem Begin was at his best only in the 1981 elections. He spent most of the turnaround campaign in relative seclusion while Ezer Weizman took charge of the campaign.
Even more important, among the voters of 1977 - both those who voted Likud and those who didn't - hardly anyone voted because they saw in Begin a practical alternative. The voters either wanted to support the left-wing Mapai party or punish it. A turnaround in which Begin would become prime minister seemed a fantasy to the vast majority on election day.
The second example was in 2006. The non-right-wing bloc won a tremendous victory with 70 seats. The right was shattered. Likud and Netanyahu were crushed and secured a mere 12 seats. But yet, among the millions of voters, only a few saw the leaders of the other key parties - Ehud Olmert, Amir Peretz and Rafi Eitan - as desirable prime ministers. It was a protest vote as the public distanced itself from the right-wing and religious path whose dominance it wanted to end.
This time the non-right-wing bloc needs an additional six seats to gain a 61 majority. This is a mission possible. Since 1999, one-sixth of the people who used to vote have stayed away from the polls - they account for around 20 seats. Most of them are non-right-wing voters. The huge tent-city social protests, the "suckers" promoting military service for everyone, the fear of religious extremism, the anxiety about a war with Iran without American backing - all this has the potential to bring the masses back to the polls to keep alive their hopes for their country. To increase the non-right turnout, public figures and various movements must get into politics.
Meretz voters, for example, don't have any reason to vote for a party further to the right on the grounds that they want to save the bloc. On the contrary. The ideological parties that will surely win enough votes to make it into the Knesset will make it easier for more right-wing voters to support other parties in the bloc.
Leaders who want to make a contribution mustn't sit on the fence. It's time for them to jump in. Two people are weighing the possibilities: Tzipi Livni and Olmert. But there is a significant difference between them. Olmert's advantage of having being prime minister has been impaired by his conviction and corruption trials.
Political necessity, not abstract morals, is of the essence now. Unlike the religious right, the non-right-wing is less forgiving of its leaders' sins. An attempt by Olmert during his trials to lead the bloc will deflect the fire from Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Livni, who is still identified with hope, can help as a leader. Even what seems to be a temporary split will lead after the elections - and it would be reasonable even before them - to unity on the way to 61 seats.
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