he possibility of a Palestinian spring may seem far-fetched at a first glance, yet upon careful consideration, it may be their only course out of the current paralysis.
Of course, the main reason for the stalemate on the Arab-Israeli front is the Israeli government’s refusal to move in the direction of peace. This government seems to believe that Israel’s interests are best served by the deadlock that enables it not only to keep occupied Palestinian land under its authority for as long as possible, but to expand more into it, demolishing houses, confiscating property and annexing more land.
It has become clear that Israel thrives on occupation, usurpation of land and promotion of conflict. In the past, it moved towards peace only when it was pushed by the US (as in the case of the Camp David, in the late 1970s) or forced by Palestinian uprisings, especially the Intifada in the 1980s.
Now there is no pressure on it from anywhere.
The Arabs are busy with their “spring” which, as the Egyptian, Libyan, Yemeni and, most significantly, Syrian situations demonstrate, will take longer than many have anticipated, and the Americans and the Europeans are more concerned with the Syrian situation and the Iranian nuclear issue than with Palestine.
More importantly, the Palestinian leadership is not only divided and fragmented — with the West Bank led by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Gaza by Hamas — but also in a state of boycott and hostility. Such fragmentation both gives Israel the pretext it needs to turn its back to the peace process and aborts any effective popular uprising against the Israeli occupation, which is the only way to bring Israel to the negotiation table.
As a result, Israel is in an extremely comfortable position and in no hurry to talk peace.
The Palestinians, on the other hand, are in a very difficult, very uncomfortable position. There is, first, the Israeli occupation, with the countless checkpoints that impede free movement of people and goods, that keeps on encroaching on the little land the Palestinians have left, and then, their divided, neglectful leadership.
The division between the PA and Hamas has created another paralysis for the Palestinian people, which is affecting them as much as the Israeli occupation.
The economy in the West Bank and Gaza are depressed, especially in the strip, which many international observers are warning will be a true disaster in 2020. And there is no hope whatsoever that peace will be attained.
Under this situation, what can the Palestinian people do? Most probably, they would rise against what they see as a selfish, petty and unworthy leadership.
If the leadership does not move in the direction of reconciliation and to improve the lives of the Palestinians, if it, with the people rallied behind it, does not take a united stand against Israel to pressure it to deliver on the peace front, this leadership will most probably be soon facing an angry Palestinian uprising directed against it, the way other Arab peoples have risen against selfish, corrupt and neglectful regimes.
The idea of a Palestinian spring is indeed not as far-fetched as it would seem at a first glimpse, and if and when it happens, the division between the PA and Hamas will be its main cause.
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