The sense of urgency for the Israeli government these days cannot be higher. Israel’s concerns of Iranian nuclear capabilities have repeatedly been made at all international forums over the past two years. Additionally, Israeli leaders have made it perfectly clear that they would risk a war rather than coexist with an unpredictable and “irrational” nuclear Iran. Knowing the grave consequences of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the Israeli public has strongly supported a military option to deal with Iran. And yet, a considerable percentage of the Israeli public prefers an American strike rather than an Israeli unilateral one.
Missing in the debate about whether or not Israel will attack Iran is the question of the military option itself. Does Israel have enough military capabilities to inflict a hard-hit strike on Iran? And if not, why should Iran buy into the Israeli explicit threat that it will not tolerate the inaction of the international community and may resort to a preventive strike? The logical conclusion should be that Israel would not strike unless there is a joint military effort by the United States. If anything, this places veto power in the hands of the American administration which has expressed a different opinion than Israel’s. In the last issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, the renowned American international relations scholar, Kenneth Waltz, argues that a nuclear Iran can help stabilize the Middle East.
And yet, key American analysts argue that Israel will attack regardless. Richard Haass, a renowned Middle East expert in the Council for Foreign Relations says that he takes Israel’s threat to launch a preventive attack at face value. He belittled the American assurances to Israel, as the stakes are high for Israelis. In effect, the Israelis have been watching the failure of Western diplomacy in weaning Iran from its project. Additionally, Israelis on the whole, do not think that the international community can decide on behalf of Israel on matters that affect the existence of Israel. For the Israelis, a nuclear Iran is an existential threat that should be checked before it is too late.
It is not as if the Israelis are not aware of the limit of what they can do militarily. But to Israelis’ vexation, as time goes by; the Iranian project has been qualitatively progressing. As the sense of urgency grows in Israel, the logical question in this case is: Will the Israelis wait any longer in the face of inaction on the part of the United States in particular? It is really difficult to predict given Israeli leaders’ contradicting statements over how to push Iran to give up its nuclear program.
It is true that Iran is in defiance and has been doing everything possible to entangle the region in a state of chaos to be able to get away with its ambitious nuclear program. But the regional context is not conducive for a reckless Israeli strike. Given the current balance of power in the region and the ongoing crisis in Syria, an Israeli strike can ignite other conflicts and can embarrass Arab countries that have been helping the change in Syria. An unprovoked Israeli strike on Iran could change the public mood in the region to benefit regimes like Syria.
Unquestionably, Israel can initiate an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. But, how effective can this attack be? The American official assessment is that such an attack may cause a setback to the Iranian nuclear program for months or even years, but it cannot prevent Iran from resuming the program. On the contrary, an Israeli attack may help the regime rally the disgruntled Iranian people behind the regime and therefore the regime can justify the need for a deterrent weapon to protect the country from future strikes.
Another issue that should be taken into account has to do with Iran’s response to an unprovoked Israeli attack. Unlike the Syrian regime, which used to take a beating from Israel and keep silent, Iran cannot afford not to retaliate. For them, it would be a matter of credibility. Therefore, an Iranian response could entangle the region in unwanted conflict of an unpredictable magnitude. Perhaps this is what convinces the American administration that diplomacy and sanctions can be effective and a military strike could backfire. Given that, it would be surprising if Israel goes on unilaterally against Iran or without receiving the green light from Washington.
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