Despite the many statements and various discussions about the possibility that the Palestinian Authority would dissolve itself, the real chance of this happening is almost nil. What is a serious possibility, however, is that the Palestinian Authority would collapse--not as a desired or planned event, but as the result of difficult economic and political obstacles facing the Palestinian people and their leadership.
There are four factors that suggest the Palestinian Authority is in danger of collapsing. To stave off this grave outcome, these factors must be confronted in a serious and responsible way by the three main involved players: Israel, the international community, and the Palestinian Authority itself.
The first factor is the economy. The Palestinian Authority has, over the last two years but especially this year, faced a growing financial crisis that is affecting its ability to fulfill its basic obligations to the public. This problem has become so serious, for example, that suppliers of medical equipment and other medical goods have stopped delivering to the government health sector due to the accumulation of debt owed them by the Palestinian Authority. A similar accumulation of debt is stalling other sectors of public development, including projects for roads, water and sewage development and the construction of public buildings.
As cited in the recent reports by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, this situation is resulting from a decline in donor funding and a simultaneous increase in Israeli restrictions. If the crisis continues, then the IMF predicts that the next falling domino in the Palestinian Authority's ability to function will be the allocation of salaries to its civilian and security personnel. A prolonged financial and economic emergency of this type could easily contribute to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority itself.
The second factor weakening the Palestinian Authority is Israeli practices and restrictions, particularly in East Jerusalem and Area C (areas under Israeli control according to interim agreements with Israel). Area C constitutes two-thirds of the West Bank and Israel is increasingly imposing restrictions there that make life more difficult for Palestinians, while at the same time granting generous incentives to Israeli companies and citizens that seek to develop there or in East Jerusalem. The difficulties for Palestinians include preventing development that is vital for day-to-day life (access to schools or electricity, for example), as well as regular attacks on Palestinian property by settlers. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs recently highlighted the problem of settler attacks on Palestinian sources of water.
The third factor in this equation is the ongoing absence of a political horizon that would transform the Palestinian Authority into an independent state. The Palestinian people and their leadership appear less and less willing to allow this situation to continue--and alongside it, Israel's occupation. The Palestinian Authority was intended to exist for five years before being transformed into a state governing the lands occupied by Israel in 1967, including East Jerusalem. Israel seems to be interested only in maintaining the status quo, i.e., coexistence between the Palestinian Authority and an endless military occupation.
Finally, Palestinian internal political divisions and their consequences, mainly the resulting delay in holding elections that would grant the Palestinian Authority needed legitimacy, are having a corroding effect. The development of two separate Palestinian political systems and Hamas' continued control over the Gaza Strip, as well as the absence of a functioning parliament, are all leading to an absence in official accountability. Without needed accountability and legitimacy, the Palestinian government is in a difficult situation. The remaining legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority is linked to the personality of President Mahmoud Abbas, who promulgates legislation instead of the Palestinian parliament. This, of course, is an arrangement that cannot last forever.
These important and existential threats to the Palestinian Authority need to be taken seriously by the international community, Israel and the Palestinian leadership. Otherwise, the continued decaying of the Palestinian Authority could indeed lead to its collapse--either gradually or without warning.
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