Fatma El-Belimi, 58, was overjoyed to see her eldest son Sami, 28, crossing the road towards his family home in the rural region east of Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza Strip. Sami had spent one week at his sister Iman's house in the town of Deir Al-Balah because of Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip. His parents and wife insisted he do so. Sami eventually was able to leave the house in an area known as the "contact zone" close to the border between the Gaza Strip and Israel, where Israeli special units were active during escalation operations. The zone is often targeted by Israeli tanks stationed on the eastern side of the border.
Sami returned after the situation calmed down and locals felt the onslaught had subsided. They now go about their normal routines but anticipate more confrontation soon. Conditions have calmed down in the Gaza Strip contrary to most expectations and despite the flare-up that followed the truce mediated by Egypt, namely firing rockets from the Gaza Strip targeting Jewish settlements and met with a restrained response by Israel.
Israeli leaders decided not to carry out their threats against the Gaza Strip in response to rockets fired after the truce. Some commentators in Israel explained this lack of action as a retreat in Israel's deterrence ability. Ahikam David, the military correspondent of Maariv newspaper, challenged political and military leaders to honestly inform settlers living close to the border with the Gaza Strip that Tel Aviv no longer has the ability to prevent rockets being launched from the Gaza Strip. In an article published Sunday, David agreed with several pundits who believe that spokesmen of the Israeli government are misleading Israeli public opinion with hollow rhetoric to cover up the truth, namely that they are unable to keep settlements safe.
These commentators add that the main reason behind growing frustration inside Israel about the inability to prevent rocket attacks is the fact that Tel Aviv -- which had established a force of deterrence against Arab states and even Hizbullah -- is now unable to deter the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip, which is considered the weakest link among Israel's adversaries. Prominent military commentator Ofer Shelach is fed up with the term "deterrence" because experience has shown that it is a concept that cannot be applied to the Palestinians. Shelach referred to a famous phrase coined by Ehud Barak when he left the army as commander of the joint chiefs of staff in 1993: "The Palestinians are like a pillow; every time you punch it, it bounces back into shape."
But there is an even better reason why Israel did not forcefully retaliate to rockets attacks after the ceasefire. Israel was keen not to prolong the recent confrontation with Palestinians because it wants to focus the attention of the world, and superpowers especially, on Iran's nuclear programme and the existential threat that presents for Israel.
Binyamin Netanyahu finds himself stuck between a rock and a hard place, however. While focussing most of his energy during a visit to the US on recruiting the Obama administration against Tehran, escalating military operations against the Gaza Strip became a distraction for the world community which demanded that Tel Aviv end its aggression. Meanwhile, Israel was surprised not only by the number of rockets launched by the Palestinian resistance during confrontations, but also their type.
According to Israeli military leaders, the number of rockets was higher than those fired at Israel during the summer war on Lebanon in 2006 and Israel's war on Gaza in 2008. And while the anti-missile system Iron Dome succeeded in shooting down a large number of rockets fired by the resistance, several of these rockets did fall on sensitive areas. In fact, the Israel army banned the Israeli media from reporting the exact locations where several rockets landed because of the critical nature of these targets, in order not to help the resistance in choosing targets.
At the same time, Israel feared that resistance factions would launch longer-range missiles that could reach the outskirts of Tel Aviv, strike Ben Gurion Airport or even Jerusalem. This would be a game changer and greatly embarrass Netanyahu's government in front of Israeli public opinion because it would trigger an organised military campaign by Israel inside the Gaza Strip. Such a move would be a misstep that harms Israel's interests at this point in time. At the same time, there is no evidence that Israel's domestic front can endure any strikes and it is noteworthy that Tel Aviv -- the anticipated target in future confrontations -- includes more than 1.5 million settlers.
Neither should we ignore that Israel benefited from recent confrontations since Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, did not participate in the attacks. The capabilities of the Brigades are greater than those of all the other factions. Tel Aviv feared that continued confrontations would eventually lead to Hamas entering the fray, which would also change the rules of engagement.
Meanwhile, Israeli television reported that Netanyahu's government was very interested in Egypt's response and decided it was wiser not to undertake to a major military assault against the Gaza Strip in order not to embarrass the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) in Cairo. SCAF is already under great pressure by politicians and public opinion to take measures against Israel, especially since some in Egypt are strongly demanding reconsideration of the Camp David Accords. This agreement is considered a main pillar of Israeli national security, as Israeli Minister of Defence Ehud Barak had said on several occasions.
The recent assault also triggered much controversy and self-criticism among Palestinians as demands are rising to limit the damage they are exposed to during confrontations. Many commentators underscored the fact that 26 were killed in resistance and civilian ranks, but there were no fatalities on the Israeli side. Nonetheless, the lives of one million settlers living in southern Israel were entirely paralysed, as were public institutions and infrastructure.
Many in Gaza were especially irked by the fact that Israel succeeded during recent confrontations to manipulate internal Palestinian divisions, and raise doubts about Hamas's fundamental commitment to the principle of resistance since its military wing did not participate in the recent battles. Hamas found itself on the defensive because intellectuals and Palestinian public opinion viewed its absence from the battlefield as proof that the group is more interested in remaining in power than fighting Israel. This caused Hamas spokesmen to launch a media campaign to explain their position. Hamas was also put in a difficult position because of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the inability of Ismail Haniyeh's government to handle it, especially in terms of power cuts and fuel shortages.
At the same time, recent confrontations reflected the disarray of the resistance in the Gaza Strip. After a truce was reached, some groups did not uphold it, which undermines the credibility of Palestinian resistance not in the eyes of Israel, but in the eyes of mediators -- especially the Egyptians. Mohamed Al-Askari, head of the media office at the Palestinian Ministry of Public Works and Housing, revealed that some 600 housing units were completely or partially destroyed in the Israeli onslaught.
Although recent confrontations have subsided, both Israelis and Palestinians are counting the days until the next flare up.
Front Page Features