The sanctions against Iran may accelerate the Ayatollah regime’s end. Once the economic pressure grows heavier, social unrest would grow and may develop into a popular uprising.
However, such processes take time, and it’s uncertain whether officials around here would have the patience to wait.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – with the encouragement of loyal journalists – is determined to enter the annals of history as the leader who saw farther than anyone else and saved Israel from the Iranian nuclear threat. However, his eagerness may turn out to be fateful.
In my view, an Israeli strike in Iran would mark the beginning of the end for the State of Israel. There is no doubt that the Iranians would respond with force. A missile barrage directed at our unprotected home front may kill hundreds of thousands of civilians in central Israel.
The Iron Dome missile defense system, which everyone takes great pride in, is capable of intercepting several missiles, but it is doubtful whether it would bring any benefit in the face of hundreds of missiles fired at once. After all, we did not even get a full solution against the rockets of Jihad gangs in Gaza, with southern Israel paralyzed only last week.
The Iranians will continue to fire missiles in the days after an Israeli strike. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis would be hurt and thousands more will remain homeless. In the weeks to follow, hundreds of thousands of Israelis – in fact, anyone who can afford it – would leave Israel to never go back. This alone would constitute a blow to our morale and economy that will wholly change the face of Israel, making a recovery highly doubtful.
No urgency to strike
Moreover, the urgency of an Israeli strike is unclear. Firstly, the Iranians still have no bomb. Secondly, the great powers – the United States and the USSR – went through the entire second half of the 20th Century engaged in what became known as a “balance of terror,” with nuclear missiles aimed at each other’s capital.
No missile was ultimately fired, even without a pre-emptive strike, and today this era is at most a historical curiosity.
At this time there is no choice but to endorse the sanctions. These would seep through slowly, until they tilt the balance within Iran. Western leaders, who support these sanctions despite the rise in oil prices, are risking their political future. Meanwhile, for the time being, PM Netanyahu is doing what he does best: Nothing.
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