President Barack Obama appears likely to win a second term since his Republican competitors seem, if nothing else, hopelessly disjointed.
Regrettably, however, he remains treading softly on the Middle East, obviously fearing that any pronouncement on any of the key issues in this region — Iran, Syria, Israel and the Palestinians — might tip the balance against him in the nine months before the presidential election, in November.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former national security adviser in the Carter administration, had this memorable comment on the Republican presidential candidates in a recent TV interview: “I must say I literally feel embarrassed as an American when I see those [Republicans] orate. One of them sounds like a medieval Savonarola. Another one is trying to explain why he has some of his wealth located in Cayman Islands. And someone else would go back to 1780 (the American revolutionary war). And then there is someone who is using his credentials as a repudiated speaker of the Congress to be president. I mean, this is just embarrassing... .”
Israel is confident that it can pull the rug from underneath Obama’s shaky feet if he appears more daring vis-à-vis Israel’s aggressive stance on Iran’s nuclear policy or the Palestinians’ struggle to gain independence in the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip, which form only 22 per cent of Palestine, or half what they were offered under the Partition Plan sanctioned by the United Nations.
Obama finds himself in a delicate position, reminiscent of last year’s occasion when he had to backtrack on his ideas for a Palestinian-Israeli settlement echoing long-held UN resolutions. Then, the American president was reportedly “humiliated” by the visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his views during their private meeting at the White House a couple of days before the annual conference of the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
A repeat performance is now in the offing, with the Israelis hoping to handcuff Obama, while the expectation elsewhere is that the American president can speak his progressive mind.
Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak flew into Washington this week, ahead of Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres who, along with Obama, will be addressing the AIPAC meeting on March 5. The Israeli defence minister is scheduled to meet with Vice President Joe Biden, Defence Secretary Leon Panetta and senior Pentagon and intelligence officials in the hope of convincing the administration that Iran is on the verge of entering a nuclear “immunity zone”.
According to the Israeli daily Haaretz, this means that Iran has reached a point at which it “would be impervious to significant damage to its nuclear programme because it will have enough centrifuges in an underground facility to continue enriching as much uranium as it likes”.
But, the paper concluded, this does not mean that Iran has decided “to cross another red line — actually manufacturing a nuclear weapon”.
To add fuel to the tense exchanges between the two countries, Israeli officials, according to one unidentified US intelligence official who is reportedly familiar with the private discussions, have let it be known that Israel would not warn the US if it decides to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Whether the Obama administration succeeds in “buying time” and continues to move this Israeli-Iranian problem into the future remains to be seen. On the other hand, it is hoped that Obama can gather enough strength to offer a nuclear umbrella to the two countries, protecting each against a surprise attack, as had been the practice in other regions. Better yet would be to have Israel accept to open its nuclear facilities to international inspection so that Iran can do the same — a situation that will avoid a devastating confrontation in the region.
It is time for the Israelis to realise that a fair settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would bring a much-needed peaceful atmosphere in the Middle East. Here is where Obama, who ought to feel confident about his chances of returning to the White House in November, ought to shun bluntness in his encounters next week with the Israelis.
After all, it is time for the Israelis to realise that banking on the Republican candidates, even those funded by pro-Israeli financiers, will not guarantee them a winning settlement with the Palestinians. The Palestinians still have a trump card which they can once again use: resort to the United Nations General Assembly for full admission to the world body.
Gideon Levy, a popular Haaretz columnist, was courageously correct when he wrote: “We can no longer depend on the United States to stop [Iran acquiring nuclear weapons]. Even worse, we can no longer depend on the Israel government to safely sail the ship of state. A government that missed the opportunity to reach an agreement with the Palestinians as it has is a dangerous government.”
“We are a-f-r-a-i-d,” he concluded, of an Israeli government which is taking Israel on “yet another dangerous, purposeless adventure”.
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