JERUSALEM, Feb. 23 (Xinhua) -- A stormy political week in Israel may advance elections, originally scheduled for October 2013 to this year, and possibly impact crucial decisions on Iran's nuclear program and negotiations with the Palestinians.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's week of sorrows started on Sunday, with the forced resignation of his bureau chief and closest personal adviser, Natan Eshel, who signed a plea admitting to "unbecoming conduct" after harassing a female co-worker.
The embarrassing affair threw Netanyahu's office into a tailspin, leading to the resignation of National Information Directorate chief Yoaz Hendel on Tuesday, after Netanyahu rebuked him over exposing the scandal.
Cabinet Secretary Zvi Hauser and Military Secretary Yohanan Locker are also expected to step down soon, as they too are linked to exposing the harassment story, leaving Netanyahu's office in chaos.
The prime minister himself addressed the issue on Wednesday, admitting that the current status in his bureau is "painful, uncomfortable and unpleasant."
But the events were only the beginning of Netanyahu's woes. The Supreme Court on Tuesday released a political time bomb, declaring the so-called Tal Law that exempts Jewish religious students from the mandatory military service to be "unconstitutional."
TAL LAW IMPACT
The meaning of this dramatic ruling is that a new law must be formed by August, or else the Haredim (ultra-religious sectors) will have to enlist in the Israel Defense Forces.
"I think that the court's decision on Tuesday didn't just drop a hot potato in Netanyahu's lap, but rather dropped a burning basket of potatoes on his head," Knesset parliament member Yoel Hasson told Xinhua.
He mentioned that it was only last month that the government was about to extend the controversial law by five years, to be only thwarted by a last-minute objection by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu faction.
Lieberman said any further efforts to extend the law would be " a waste of time," according to local Ynet news service, adding that "They can certainly join the national effort, and our goal is to strengthen the public that carries the burden."
According to Hasson, "Netanyahu now needs to come up with a new solution, while he is torn between Lieberman and (ultra religious Sephardic party) Shas. Any option he chooses will endanger the coalition."
A senior official in Yisrael Beiteinu said that the party won't retreat from forming a stricter law, even if it would result in bringing elections forward.
"There won't be such a thing as a full exemption for 60,000 people. We understand it might be a critical issue for the coalition, but we have always marched under the banner of equally spreading the responsibility," the official said, "We are making an alternative (law), and it won't be toothless."
Roei Lachmanovich, a former Shas spokesperson, claims on the other hand that the Haredim have no interest in advancing elections.
"Although it seems like the Supreme Court's ruling will destabilize the coalition, the truth is different. Stepping down from the government at this time will drive Netanyahu to run on secular platform in the next elections, and to form a coalition without the religious parties," he said.
TIMING OF ELECTIONS
But while the Tal Law poses a major threat to the government's stability, it is not the only one. Political analysts suggest several other major factors that could bring the elections forward, among them the United States' presidential elections, government budget issues and Lieberman's possible indictment on criminal charges.
So how does a shaky coalition affect governmental considerations on critical issues?
Yaacov Bar Siman-Tov, Professor of International Relations at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the head of the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, pointed out some relevant examples from the past.
"Usually, large-scale diplomatic or security measures are not promoted before elections, but there are some exceptions," he said.
As a relevant analogy to Israel's dilemma on whether to engage a military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities, Bar Siman- Tov brought up former prime minister Menachem Begin's decision to bomb Iraq's Osirik nuclear plant in 1981.
"Begin chose to bomb the facilities before the general elections, and he took a big political risk facing the possibility that the operation could have failed," Bar Siman-Tov said.
Begin's biggest motive for carrying out the operation at the time, he avers, was the worry that his political rival Shimon Peres would not execute the risky military attack if he was to win the elections.
"Begin had a big obsession to the issue, as he saw the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein as the 'embodiment of Adolf Hitler,' and he took an oath to protect the children of Israel from him," Bar Siman-Tov said.
A common belief of Israeli political analysts is that Netanyahu today, like Begin in the year of 1981, sees himself as Israel's protector from perceived major threats like Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
"NO" TO PEACE PROCESS
Nevertheless, Israeli diplomatic sources say that current times are different than the past, and that these kinds of decisions are no longer a matter of politics.
"There are many differences between the political powers, but if such a decision were to take place then I assume they will all unite," a diplomatic source said.
Hasson added that "It is true that the question is currently on the table of the prime minister and the defense minister, but it is significant in the national aspect and it has to do with the system as a whole. In this issue there's no separation between the coalition and the opposition."
He noted that "We all agree that it is necessary to prevent a nuclear Iran, and if such an operation would take place, then the opposition will also be involved."
As to whether general elections have an effect on a prime minister's decision regarding negotiations with the Palestinians, Bar Siman-Tov pointed to the Jan. 2001 Taba Summit that was held in the same month as the elections were.
"Ehud Barak, who was the prime minister at the time, thought that if he would reach an agreement with the Palestinians it would have an effect on the elections," he said.
However, "eventually this act was met by a great deal of public criticism, and created a debate on whether a transitional government has the legitimacy to sign agreements," Bar Siman-Tov added.
Hasson said that since Netanyahu chairs the right-wing Likud party, the chances of engaging with the Palestinians are now slimmer than ever.
"When facing elections, Netanyahu has no interest in committing to compromises and concessions. It would damage his image in front of his potential voters. The conclusion is simple: no matter what happens, this government will not promote a peace process," Hasson said.
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