RAMALLAH -- The announcement by Khaled Mashaal, that he plans to quit his job as the powerful chief of Hamas’ political bureau has led to a flurry of speculation about why he acting? Whether the promise to step down if for real? If so, who will replace him?
Mashaal made known his plans to Hamas’ Shura Council in a secret meeting in Sudan in late December. Mashaal, who has headed the political bureau chief for two terms, has plenty of time to reverse himself. Elections are expected to take place in May. One source said that Mashaal would be careful not to severe all his ties with the movement. Even if he quits the Shura Council, he is going to stay at the general council, a Hamas source in Gaza told The Media Line.
Mashaal’s move comes at a crossroads for the Palestinian Islamist movement. The Arab Spring has shaken up the old Arab order in which Hamas stood squarely in the Iranian-Syrian axis and advocated the so-called armed resistance against Israel. But Syria is in trouble, Mashaal has been forced to flee his Damascus headquarters and Iran is angry at Hamas for failing to back Al-Assad.
Meanwhile, Hamas’ bitter enemy in Egypt, President Husni Mubarak, is out of power and facing trial while a new government controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist parties is coming to power. Turkey, which once stood aloof of the Arab world, is positioning itself to be a big player with Hamas at its side. On Sunday, the Ha’aretz daily reported that Ankara is ready to provide the $300 million in aid to the Gaza-based movement in place of Iran.
Inside Hamas itself, a huge ideological debate is raging over whether the organization should forswear violence. Mashaal, long seen as heading the more extremist end of the Hamas leadership, has reportedly been pushing for a more moderate stance, to the chagrin of Hamas Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh.
Although he has spent nearly his entire life abroad, Mashaal has been the dominant figure in Hamas. Age 55, he gained notoriety as the target of a botched assassination attempt by Israel in 1997. He was expelled from Jordan two years later and made Damascus his home base, thereby putting Hamas on the roads to an alliance with Iran and Syria. He took the reins of the movement when Israel killed founder and spiritual leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, in March 2004.
Among the various careers moves Mashaal could make, the most likely one both Palestinian security sources and political analysts say, is to head up a newly established Palestinian branch of Muslim Brotherhood. That would not be a great ideological leap for Mashaal, since Hamas’ origins can be traced to the Egyptian Brotherhood. But it could put him instantly at the top of a powerful organization with powerful friends – all at Hamas’ expense.
Right now, the Palestinian Brothers are divided into two groups – a West Bank branch that is part of the Jordanian Brotherhood and a Gaza branched linked to the mother organization in Egypt. A Palestinian Brotherhood stands a chance of winning the international legitimacy that Hamas – with its lengthy record of terrorism and links to Iran – can never hope for, said a Palestinian security source.
“Mashaal sees that the U.S. is ready to cooperate with the Muslim Brotherhood in Tunisia and Egypt, while it considers Hamas as a terroristic organization. He may be thinking that this is a smart move to get recognition for Hamas by the U.S. and the world,” the security source in Ramallah told The Media Line.
The source, echoing what many other Palestinian observers believe, contends that the Egyptian Brotherhood organization has promised the United States it will team up with Hamas as a condition to accepting their ruling Egypt. “If that’s true, then who else than Mashaal could maintain such guarantees given by the Muslim Brotherhood to the U.S.?” wondered the official.
Palestinian security sources in Ramallah said they believe Mashaal has not made a final decision and that Hamas will do everything it can to keep him in the fold because he is so critical to the organization. A senior delegation of Hamas’ military wing was dispatched to Cairo on 26 January to convince Mashaal to stay on. This delegation included Ahmed Ja’aberi the commander of the Izz Eddin Al-Qassam military wing, and Yahiya Sinwar, who was freed recently as part of the swap for Israel’s POW Gilad Shalit.
“It’s difficult for anyone inside Hamas to unify the movement in exile, in Gaza and the West Bank as he does, not to mention his good contacts with Arab, European and U.S. personalities and officials,” said the source who spoke to The Media Line on condition of anonymity.
A Hamas security source in Gaza who worked with Mashaal in Syria for three years told The Media Line that Mashaal has opened communications channels for the movement that nobody can match. “He easily pick up the phone and call any Arab president and speak to him,” said the source.
Mashaal’s powerful regional role was demonstrated when he was tasked by the Arab League with conveying messages to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad calling on him for an immediate stop of the brutal killing of his civilians.
If Mashaal finally decides to leave Hamas, the two strongest candidates to succeed him are his deputy, Moussa Abu Marzouk, and the prime minister, Hanieh. Last month, the latter went on his first trip outside of Gaza in five years with stops in Sudan, Egypt, Turkey and Tunisia and plans another trip this week to Iran and Kuwait, all aimed at sprucing up his international credentials.
Fatah security sources who spoke to The Media Line on condition of anonymity, claim that Mashaal asked Qatar and Bahrain not to receive his rival.
Mashaal, meanwhile, was carrying out a high-profile visit to Jordan on Sunday accompanied by the Qatari Deputy Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad. Mashaal is seeking to improve relations with the Hashemite kingdom, which once hosted him. With the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood at the head of a powerful and increasingly daring opposition, Jordan’s King Abdullah will be seeking Mashaal’s help. A far cry from when the young king ousted him for “illicit and harmful” activities aimed at disrupting the peace treaty with Israel.
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