Poll No. 179
Sept. 06, 2011
The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali reveals that:
(83.6%) of the Palestinians evaluate the US efforts on recognizing the Palestinian state as negative.
(59.3%) prefer to resume the negotiations with Israel.
(45.2%) expect Palestine to become a new UN member
(48.8%) oppose holding peaceful demonstrations after proclaiming the recognition of the State of Palestine at the UN.
(49.2%) believe that the PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, should exert more effort to obtain international support for the recognition of the Palestinian state.
(52.7%) oppose at various degrees any decision taken by the PA President to retreat from going to the UN.
(41.7%) appreciate the UN role in the efforts aiming at the recognition of the Palestinian state.
Beit Sahour – Public Relations Office:
The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org [2]) during the period from August 18 till 30, 2011, covered a random sample of (1000) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of adult Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the west Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that (45.2%) of the Palestinians expect Palestine to become a new member in the UNO during its coming General Assembly session later this month.
Dr. Kukali, in his capacity as President of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said that the majority of the Palestinian public, namely around (53.0%), oppose any decision taken by the PA President to retreat from going to the UN. He added that notwithstanding this finding, the Palestinian public is aware of the necessity of supporting the President, should there be need, if the Quartet, the US and the EU-countries would ask him to postpone his going to the UN as to give the negotiations a more chance to settle all pending issues in a way accepted by both parties on the basis of fairness, equality and security. Dr. Kukali indicated that there is a hot debate between advocates and opponents of going to the United Nations to capture the international recognition for the Palestinian state. Whilst (59.3%) of the respondents are of the opinion that it’s necessary to go first back to the negotiations with Israel as to reach a permanent peace with the Israelis then resort to the UN, (35.0%) however support going directly to the UN seeking the recognition of the Palestinian state unilaterally without the need for concluding a peace accord with the Israelis.
Efforts of the PA President to recognize the Palestinian state:
(49.2%) of the Palestinians believe that the PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, should exert more effort to obtain international support for the recognition of the Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly session to be held later this month, whilst (26.5%) said "he is doing enough", (16.9%) "he is doing nothing at all", and (7.4%) refused to respond to the question.
Retreat from going to the UN:
Responding to the question: "If the United States of America, the EU-countries and the international Quartet would ask Abu Mazen (the PA president) to postpone his going to the UN in the coming September as to give the negotiations a more chance to settle all pending issues in a way accepted by both parties on the basis of fairness, equality and security, would you, in general, strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this step?", (10.7%) said they "would strongly support", (45.0%) "somewhat support", (25.3%) "somehow oppose", (10.0%) "strongly oppose" such a step and ( 9.0 %) said "I don’t know".
And regarding in this context the question:" If the PA president (Abu Mazen) would decide to retreat from his decision of going to the UN next September, would you support his decision or oppose it?", (11.8%) said they would strongly support it, (25.2%) "somewhat support it", (35.0%) "somewhat oppose it", (17.7%) "strongly oppose it" and (10.3%) said " I don’t know".
Positions of the various parties:
Responding to the request:"I would like to know your opinion about the contributions of the following parties to the efforts aiming at recognizing the Palestinian state next September, are these "very good" (1), "somewhat good" (2), "somewhat not good" (3), or "not good at all" (4)? "I don’t know" (5).
The Arab League:
(52.9%) said "very good", (20.3%) "somewhat good", (10.5%) "somehow not good", (10.7%) "not good at all" and (5.6%) said "I don’t know".
The Islamic Countries:
(42.7%) said "very good", (22.4%) "somewhat good", (15.9%) "somehow not good", (10.4%) "not good at all" and (8.6%) said "I don’t know".
The United States:
(4.0%) said "very good", (4.9%) "somewhat good", (15.7%) "somehow not good", (67.9%) "not good at all" and (7.5%) said "I don’t know".
The EU-countries:
(27.7%) said "very good", (25.9%) "somewhat good", (11.3%) "somehow not good", (23.6%) "not good at all" and (11.5%) said "I don’t know".
Russia:
(18.1%) said "very good", (28.2%) "somewhat good", (18.8%) "somehow not good", (20.6%) "not good at all" and (14.3%) said "I don’t know".
Hamas:
(17.4%) said "very good", (42.0%) "somewhat good", (15.9%) "somehow not good", (14.9%) "not good at all" and (9.9%) said "I don’t know".
Fatah:
(57.3%) said "very good", (21.9%) "somewhat good", (9.4%) "somehow not good", (5.9%) "not good at all" and (5. 5 %) said "I don’t know".
Turkey:
(46.4%) said "very good", (25.5%) "somewhat good", (12.7%) "somehow not good", (6.2%) "not good at all" and (9.2%) said "I don’t know".
The Preferable Option:
Upon answering the question:" Which, in your opinion, is the preferable option for the future of Palestine? Is it going to the United Nations for the recognition of the Palestinian state without concluding a peace agreement with Israel, or going back to the negotiation table with the Israelis for the sake of a permanent peace with them and then resort to the UN?", (35.4%) said "going to the UN for the recognition of the Palestinian state without concluding a peace agreement with Israel", and (59.3%) see as preferable option "going back to the negotiation table with the Israelis for the sake of a permanent peace with them and then resort to the UN", whilst (5.3%) said "I don’t know".
The Expectations:
(45.2%) of the Palestinian people expect Palestine to become a new UN member during the UN-session in this month, whilst (35.5%) don’t expect that and
(19.3%) declined to answer.
The attitude towards the United Nations:
Responding to the question:" How high is your estimate that the United Nations will play its role in the efforts aiming at the recognition of the Palestinian state and the obtainment of a full membership for this state in the UN next September?", (9.6%) said "very good", (32.1%) "Somehow good", (41.6%) "not so good", (12.4%) "not good at all" and (4.3%) answered "I don’t know".
The trust in the UN Secretary-General:
With regard to the question: " How much trust would you put in the UN Secretary-General, Mr. Ban Ki- moon, with regard to the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the recognition of the Palestinian state next September?", (6.0%) said "too much trust", (25.0%) "some trust", (38.8%) "a little trust" , (25.9%) "I don’t trust him at all", and (4.3%) said "I don’t know".
The Reactions of the Palestinians:
Regarding the question: " Some people are in favor of holding huge peaceful demonstrations in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem with the aim as to overrun the barriers and close the roads against the Israeli army and the settlers after the proclamation of the recognition of the State of Palestine in the coming September, others oppose this notion. Which of the two notions is closer to your point of view?", (41.5%) said "I’m in favor of holding huge peaceful demonstrations", (48.8%) said "I oppose making big peaceful demos", and (9.7%) said " I don’t know".
And responding to the question:" Some people say that Palestinians should hold huge peaceful demos that overrun the barriers and close the roads against the Israeli army and the settlers with the aim to force the Israelis to withdraw from the territories of the State of Palestine after the proclamation of the UN-resolution recognizing the State of Palestine, whilst others say Palestinians should carry out violent actions against the Israeli army and the settlers, and a third group of people is in favor of going back to the peaceful negotiations with the Israeli government. Which of these three opinions is the closest to yours?", (25.9%) said "make big peaceful demos that overrun the barriers and close the roads against the Israeli army and the settlers", (15.2%) "carry out violent actions against the Israeli army and the settlers" and the silent majority, specifically (53.4%), are in favor of "going back to the peaceful negotiations with the Israeli government", whilst (5.5%) answered "I don’t know".
Non-implementation of the reconciliation accord:
Responding to the question: "Whom do you blame, in general, for the non-implementation of the reconciliation accord between Fatah and Hamas?", (11.0%) said "Fatah leadership", (37.9%) "Hamas leadership", (46.6%) "both leaderships equally" and (4.6%) said "I don’t know".
Methodology of the Survey Study:
Miss Rana Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies' Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (156) election sites, from which (116) sites are located in West Bank and (40) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission. These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO's long experienced methodology.
Miss Rana Kukali has further established that the margin of error was (±3.1%) at a significance and confidence levels of (5.0%) and (95%) respectively. She added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49.9%) against (50.1%) male respondents. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (64.1%) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (35.9%) in Gaza Strip, and allocated as follows: (52.2%) for the towns, (31.4%) for the villages and (16.2%) for the camps.
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