Islamic Hamas movement claimed responsibility for the Saturday mortar attack into southern Israel, to which the latter retaliated with air strikes on what the army said were military targets.
The Palestinian attacks came a few days after Palestinian National Authority President and Fatah head Mahmoud Abbas said that he would travel to Gaza for reconciliation talks with Hamas.
Local analysts view the Palestinian mortar barrage as part of an internal political standoff ahead of Abbas' visit.
Following the attack, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman asked Israel's envoy to the United Nations to lodge a formal complaint, and sent a message to the UN warning that any future Palestinian state will be one of "terrorists" set on destroying Israel. But analysts said Israel is not interested in a big military operation. Instead, it must somehow balance between deterring further military actions the Gaza Strip, and not having an escalation.
A DELICATE BALANCE
Dr. Ely Karmon of the Institute for Counter Terrorism at the Inter-Disciplinary Center in Herzliya told Xinhua that he doesn't foresee a large scale Israeli military operation in response to the salvos.
"At this moment Israel has no interested in an escalation," Karmon said, "because the border with Egypt is very sensitive."
He added that Egyptian gas export to Israel via the Sinai Peninsula is important to the latter's economy, since it makes up some 20 percent of Israel's natural gas supply. An unidentified group sabotaged the gas pipeline on Feb. 5. Israel is still waiting for the export to resume to full capacity, as well as actively seeking other available gas suppliers.
During the reign of Egypt's former President Hosni Mubarak, Israel knew it could rely on Egypt as a partner against Hamas in Gaza, since Cairo views the Islamist group as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, who, to no small degree, were behind his fall, according to Karmon.
Since Mubarak's ouster, there has been a growing concern in Israel that the new Egyptian leadership might deviate from its position and allow a free flow of weapons into Gaza. However, the Egyptian interception of an arms convoy last week appears to have reassured Israel, at least for now.
INTERNAL POLITICS
Naji Shurab, professor of political science at al-Azhar University in Gaza said that there may very well be a connection between the attacks and Abbas' planned Gaza sojourn.
"While Israel is trying to stop Abbas from going to Gaza, there are also those in the strip, especially within Hamas, that don't want to see him visit," Shurab said. These opponents fear that Abbas will put an end to the fragmentation between the two rivals for Palestinian leadership, and possibly lead Hamas to lose its power, Shurab argued.
"From Israel's side, the transformation in the Arab world may lead it to resume the military's role," Shurab said, "And for the Palestinian movements here in Gaza, they too want to reassure that resistance is still an option should peace talks fail."
Shurab believes that Hamas is waiting to see what will happen in Egypt, "if the Muslim Brotherhood will come into power," he said. But he dismissed the possibility that weekend's escalation would lead to an all out confrontation between Israel and the Palestinian resistance movements here in Gaza.
A DIVIDED PEOPLE
In July 2007 Hamas took control of Gaza after a military offensive that saw forces loyal to Fatah either fleeing to the West Bank, or caught and killed.
Abbas' recent announcement that he was willing to travel to Gaza for talks, came at the invitation of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to discuss a possible unity government.
However, according to the Israeli daily Ha'aretz, the invitation was issued without the knowledge of Hamas leadership residing in Damascus, and its military wing in Gaza. Both, according to Shurab, are concerned about their influence in any potential reconciliation.
He added that the recent pro-reconciliation demonstration in Gaza also showed that Gazans are also divided over the issue.
In the past, Hamas has been able to deter Gazans from taking part in such demonstrations. However, that wasn't the case in recent protests. Fatah-encouraged pro-reconciliation rallies were also held in the West Bank.
The Palestinian Ma'an news agency reported in recent days that Abbas has ordered a senior Fatah official to contact Egypt with a proposal that Cairo sponsor a new national unity intuitive, which would create a single government entity for both the West Bank and Gaza.
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