The Israeli government on Monday announced that it will remove all Israeli settlements on the West Bank built on private Palestinian land.
Despite the government's promises, local analysts doubt its feasibility without an outside push to resume direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Moreover, the political stability within Israel could be affected as some coalition partners are considered pro-settlement.
DOMESTIC DOUBTS
The statement was made in response to a court petition by the Israeli non-governmental organization Peace Now, which demands that the government puts into action demolition orders already issued for six illegal outposts.
The announcement came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing a trip to the United States in the coming month to reveal a new peace plan with the Palestinians.
At a joint session of the U.S. Congress, Netanyahu is expected to give a speech labeled as "Bar-Ilan 2," which is named after one he gave at the Bar-Ilan University outside Tel Aviv in 2009. During that speech, then newly-elected prime minister announced his support for the two-state solution.
The international community sees all Israeli settlements built on the West Bank as illegal. Israel, however, differentiates between those built on private or "state" Palestinian land. What will happen to settlement built on the latter is still under consideration, according to the statement.
Without some headway in the peace talks, "there is no reason it (demolition of settlements) will happen," said Prof. Michal Shamir from the department of political science at Tel Aviv University.
As to the timing of the announcement, Shamir attributes it to legal procedure. "The government needed to give a reply to the court," he said.
"There's still plenty of time before the end of this year. Who knows what can happen," Shamir added.
Direct negotiations have been in hiatus since last September when a ten-month Israeli freeze on settlement construction in the West Bank ended. Despite intensive U.S. efforts to revive the peace process, Israel has refused to extend the moratorium, which was implemented in 2009 under the pressure from President Barack Obama's administration.
On the other hand, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has refused to return to the negotiation table while settlement construction is ongoing.
When Israel-Palestinian peace talks started in Madrid during the early 1990s, dealing with Jewish settlement wasn't high on the agenda. However, the issue has gained increasing attention as settlements continue to expand. Palestinians have been arguing that the settlement building is corroding about the land of their future state.
"SETTLEMENTS ON THE OCCUPIED LAND CORE ISSUE"
Prof. Bassem Zbeidi, a political scientist from Birzeit University in the West Bank, also doubts the Israeli government's intention to stand by its promise.
Zbeidi said that the announcement comes as an answer to the pressure from the international community, and especially from the United States.
"Israeli government isn't capable of enforcing such a step," Zbeidi said, "it will definitely endanger the current coalition. I don't think Netanyahu is willing to go that far."
He added that Netanyahu would rather keep his coalition than keep the promise to tear down settlement. "Everything he's done is trying to deflect international pressure."
"What really matters here isn't the fate of a few scattered outposts," Zbeidi said, "the core issue is Israeli government's stand on settlements built on the occupied territories."
U.S. BACKING OR NOT
Arye Naor, a professor emeritus at the department on public policy and administration at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, told Xinhua that it could lead to a political crisis if Netanyahu' s government would enforce the demolition plan.
"It depends on so many factors, such as support from the U.S.," Naor said, "if Netanyahu will enjoy real American support, it will be easier for him to maneuver and manipulate his coalition partners."
He added that if Netanyahu doesn't win the support of the Americans, "it would be doubtful if he could carry out the eviction."
Naor believes the Israeli Prime Minister is likely to receive more support from the U.S. Congress than from the Obama administration. "The congressional backing can be used to relieve some of Netanyahu's pressure," he said.
It's generally assumed that Netanyahu is under heavy American pressure after the U.S. used its veto two weeks ago to stop a United Nations Security Council resolution that condemned Israeli settlement construction.
While the decision was widely praised in Israel, in its aftermath both Netanyahu and members of his government have made statements that appear to be geared at repaying the U.S. for its support.
On Monday, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor, who belongs to Netanyahu's Likud party, said that the prime minister supported transferring more land on the West Bank to the control of the Palestinian National Authority.
Meridor, however, rejected the idea of a Palestinian state on the 1967 border as the "world had already recognized that the main settlement blocs in Judean and Samaria (West Bank) would stay in Israeli hands."
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