A formidable coalition against Israel is taking shape in the Greater Middle East. At its core are Turkey, Iran and Syria, three countries harbouring bitter grievances against the Jewish state. They are determined to hold in check Israel's military power and force it to change course.
Turkey, once Israel's ally, is now leading the campaign against it. Turkish opinion has been outraged by the death of nine Turks, killed by Israeli commandos when they assaulted an aid ship bound for Gaza on May 31. Iran and Syria have been Israel's main opponents for decades and now see a chance to alter the regional balance in their favour.
Early this past week, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted a Eurasian summit in Istanbul at which many of the region's most dangerous conflicts were aired — Gaza, of course, where the main target was Israel and its aggressive behaviour towards the aid flotilla, but also Afghanistan, where US forces suffered heavy casualties this week. The quarrel between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme was also a feature of the summit and of several bilateral meetings.
The summit was attended by Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai, and senior representatives from China, India and Pakistan, among other regional leaders. Syria's President Bashar Al Assad, and Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas were invited guests.
In addition to pressuring Israel over Gaza, Turkey is seeking to use its influence to pacify the situation in Afghanistan. It hosted a meeting between Afghanistan's Karzai and Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi. These two countries are both fighting the Taliban, but are suspicious of each other's motives and aims. Karzai is seeking to engage the Taliban leadership in peace talks, as he explored at the recent jirga of tribal chiefs he hosted in Kabul. But Pakistan, intent on countering India's influence in Afghanistan, wants to ensure that it is given the leading role in any peace talks, and that its local allies come out on top.
The Eurasian summit was followed by a meeting on Wednesday of the Turkish-Arab Cooperation Forum, attended by Turkish and Arab League foreign ministers. At all these meetings, decisions were taken aimed at increasing pressure on Israel. A number of specific demands were formulated, namely that Israel lift the siege on Gaza and agree to an independent international commission of enquiry into its assault in international waters on the Gaza-bound flotilla, which led to the Turkish deaths. Israel has already rejected both these demands.
Erdogan repeated his accusation that Israel was guilty of ‘state terrorism'. He declared that his country would not normalise its relations with Israel until it agreed to an independent enquiry. Erdogan also seized the occasion to press Abbas to seek reconciliation with Hamas, as a necessary precondition for progress towards a Palestinian state. Abbas announced that he would send a delegation to Gaza, and urged the Hamas leaders to accept Egypt's peace plan as a basis for an inter-Palestinian settlement.
Turkey's efforts to promote global and regional peace in a wide range of conflict zones — in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Armenia, the Balkans, the Caucasus and Iraqi Kurdistan — are in total contradiction with Israel's determination to impose its will by military force, not only on the Palestinians, but on the whole region. This is the essence of the contest now taking place between them.
Syria and Iran are Turkey's main associates in this struggle, although they play only supporting roles. Turkey and Syria have several strategic interests in common. They both want to keep a lid on Kurdish aspirations for independence. They both strongly object to the possibility of an Israeli and/or American strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. And, having opposed America's war in Iraq, they both have a keen interest in the revival of Iraq as a unitary state.
Israel, in contrast, has for decades channelled clandestine aid to the Kurds, in order to weaken both Iraq and Syria; it has campaigned tirelessly for American action against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which it has demonised as a threat to the whole world; and having pushed the US into overthrowing Saddam Hussain, its present aim is to see Iraq reshaped as a weak, federal state, unable to pose any challenge to Israel in the foreseeable future.
The realignment of Turkey away from Israel is part of a region-wide process which, some hope, might persuade the next generation of Israeli leaders, if not this one, to rethink their country's security doctrine: to choose peace and co-existence with its neighbours, rather than attempt to maintain its military supremacy.
The great question is whether this necessary evolution of Israeli thinking can take place without another war. A great deal will depend on how US President Barack Obama and major European leaders react to the current crises over Gaza, Afghanistan and Iran. It must be recognised that the omens are not particularly favourable in any of them.
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