Nine years and 10 days after the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa intifada, tensions gripping the Temple Mount could once again lead to the eruption of violent clashes between Palestinians and Israelis.
Yet a third intifada would seem inconceivable now, for several reasons - West Bank Palestinians are tired, their economy has been improving, and the Palestinian Authority itself has no stomach for a worsening situation.
Still, it's hard to tell where Friday's demonstrations in the territories will lead. Perhaps the Temple Mount events will be limited due to the age restriction Israel has imposed on the worshippers. But disturbances are expected in areas near Jerusalem such as the Anata and Qalandiyah refugee camps, and Ras al-Amud. Defense officials hope that demonstrators won't be killed or seriously injured, as this could cause any riots to spread.
Perhaps Israel's assumption that the Palestinians are not interested in setting the West Bank on fire is accurate, but one soldier firing at stone throwers or one demonstrator shooting at Israeli soldiers could turn the picture upside down.
Several groups and individuals have been inciting the Palestinians against Israel in recent days. The head of the Islamic Movement's northern branch, Sheikh Ra'ad Salah, said this week he was ready to become a martyr to protect Al-Aqsa. Hamas declared an "anger day" and urged its people to demonstrate support at Al-Aqsa. Leading Muslim religious leaders and various PA politicians have been persuading the sleepy West Bank population to come out in protest. Even Fatah, branded a traitor for its response to the Goldstone report, feels it must prove its patriotism.
This explains the Fatah Central Committee's decision on Wednesday to call a general strike in the territories and urge its supporters to take part in the demonstrations.
The circumstances are reminiscent of September 2000, when the intifada began - the negotiations are stuck (or haven't been resumed) and the Palestinian public is bitterly disappointed with the PA. This will make it hard for the PA to keep groups from clashing with the IDF.
Above all, the Temple Mount is in the headlines. The provocation may not be Israeli this time, but the combination of political aspirations with calls for a religious war may render the "who started" question irrelevant.
In October 2000, U.S. Senator George Mitchell was sent by president Bill Clinton to Israel and the PA to find out why the intifada erupted and recommend steps to prevent violence. He recommended stopping construction in the settlements and halting lethal measures against demonstrators.
Mitchell, now special envoy to the Middle East, is to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and PA President Mahmoud Abbas Friday in a bid to jump-start the talks on a final-status agreement. Good luck, pal.
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