We are facing a perfect storm of provocations, grievances, outrage and mutually reinforcing escalations that have pushed the situation in the occupied Palestinian territories, particularly Jerusalem, to the brink of an eruption. Indeed, it would be no exaggeration to call the present situation uncannily and very disturbingly reminiscent of the build up to the unleashing of the second intifada, which created disastrous consequences for the Palestinian people. An explosion of violence at this stage threatens to be even more damaging and disruptive, and among other things might squander the Obama initiative, which may be the last serious effort at peace and ending the occupation for the foreseeable future. It could prove to be a catastrophe for all parties, and rapid de-escalation is required on all sides in order to avoid another appalling miscalculation.
The broadest context, of course, is sustained uncertainty about the intentions of the present Israeli government regarding peace negotiations in the minds of Palestinians, particularly following inconclusive negotiations between Israel and the United States on a settlement freeze. The determination expressed publicly by the Israeli government to continue settlement construction, particularly and especially in occupied East Jerusalem, set the stage for the current hair-trigger situation. This was greatly exacerbated by the fiasco of the mishandling of the Goldstone report by the Palestinian leadership, which was either unable or unwilling to explain not only why it took the actions it did, but who precisely was responsible for them. Generalized confusion led to generalized outrage, which could and should have been avoided.
Into this maelstrom came the series of reciprocal provocations engaged in by Islamist organizations and the Israeli government centered around the Haram Al-Sharif/Temple Mount. Yet again the whole conflict is drifting further in the direction of degenerating into an all-out religious conflagration. Islamist and ultra-left Palestinian factions are clearly trying to use the situation to bring down the Palestinian Authority, and possibly even the PLO itself. This group most notably includes the so-called "Islamic Movement" organization and Hamas, whose attitude on the Goldstone report -- which they angrily rejected when it was first issued and which accuses Hamas of serious war crimes -- has been inconsistent to say the least. These groups and others, such as the Qatar-based preacher Yusuf Qaradawi, have been calling on ordinary Palestinians to mobilize to physically protect the Haram, a calculated recipe for escalation. The behavior of the Israeli authorities has played into this escalation at every stage, with excessive force used against protesters and various political provocations, including mysterious and very provocative excavations near the holy sites and the planned establishment of a new East Jerusalem settlement on Wednesday.
It seems clear that a collection of forces that are hostile to the PA are seeking to use the present crisis as a vehicle for bringing it down once and for all. Some Palestinians may be hoping this leads to another intifada in which the rival Islamist forces gain permanent ascendancy. Some Israelis may be hoping that it renders the Palestinians incapable of any serious effort at self-governance or coordinated diplomacy for the foreseeable future, allowing for no effective challenge to the occupation. Both need to be careful of what they wish for.
Let there be no doubt: as with past mutual miscalculations, in this instance neither society will benefit and both will be the losers in any such eventuality. Only self-interested political extremists and fanatics on both sides would wish and work for another explosion, and yet the groundwork for precisely such a conflagration has been rather precisely and deliberately constructed. The only thing that can prevent this from happening in the coming days is an equally precise and strong-willed de-escalation. Both Israelis and Palestinians, and all their friends around the world, should be doing everything possible to pull back from the brink of a disaster.
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