A rough timetable in the US push for Middle East peace is likely to emerge in the next few weeks after several months in which the administration has gone against some sceptical expectations and pressured Israel for a settlement freeze.
Numerous pitfalls lie ahead, as always in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, but US resolve remains firm, said officials and analysts.
An announcement by Israel expected soon on the suspension of most construction activity in the occupied territories would not convince all protagonists of its good faith, but the Palestinians would not refuse to negotiate, they said. The US, for its part, would probably not issue a point-by-point plan for peace but rather push for a resumption of talks between the two sides under a US framework, possibly by the end of this year, the officials said.
A meeting between Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, around the time of the United Nations General Assembly in New York this month should start to lay the groundwork for a resumption of talks.
“It is possible that the US administration will seek to convene a regional peace conference to relaunch negotiations,” said Ori Nir, spokesman for Americans for Peace Now, a liberal Israeli rights group.
Privately, US officials were making clear to both sides its parameters for peace.
Under the most likely scenario forecast by officials, Israel will soon announce a settlement freeze, although it will likely contain caveats to satisfy Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing cabinet.
Some Arab countries might pursue active measures, such as reopening trade and tourism ties with Israel, while others might be more passive, such as supporting Mr Abbas, not standing in the way of negotiations and providing better “atmospherics”, said Hussein Ibish, senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine, a non-profit that advocates for a two-state solution.
In Washington, the shift towards peace appears to be anything but glacial.
“For the first time in history, the Palestinian position is closer than the Israeli one to the American point of view,” Mr Ibish wrote in his latest blog.
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