For a process that evokes little optimism on either side, there is an awful lot of diplomatic activity just now aimed at restarting Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Two high-level Israeli officials are in Washington trying to finalize a modified settlement freeze with the American Mideast envoy George Mitchell. The Israeli national security adviser just visited the Jordanian capital to meet with King Abdullah. Hamas officials are in Cairo talking about what they want to release an Israeli soldier they are holding. The European Union foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, has been in Jerusalem and the West Bank this week. So has Tony Blair, who represents the Quartet — the United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations — in an effort to build Palestinian institutions.
Everyone is tightlipped about exactly where things stand because as Mr. Blair put it in a conversation with half a dozen foreign correspondents on Wednesday, “We are at a juncture of the most sensitive parts of the negotiations.” All agree that the short-term goal is for a meeting of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and President Obama at the United Nations General Assembly opening in three weeks. It is a measure of the mutual antagonism that such a meeting would be viewed as an accomplishment.
The idea is that enough of a freeze would be agreed (Israel wants to exempt East Jerusalem and existing projects; the Palestinians want no exceptions) to somehow call it that. Equally, the hope is that enough gestures from Arab governments to Israel would have been nailed down for Mr. Netanyahu to sell the freeze to his skeptical nation. The Israeli public largely agrees with their prime minister that the problem is not settlements but Arab rejection of a Jewish state here and the inability of the Palestinians to pursue coexistence given the Hamas rejectionists who rule in Gaza.
An equally skeptical Palestinian people needs to be persuaded that something serious is happening apart from mild economic improvement in the West Bank and promises of greater freedom of movement by an Israeli government that talks frequently of the need for Jews to live anywhere in the West Bank. Palestinians believe firmly that the settlements are very much the issue — end them, they say, and real progress will ensue.
The American and European mediators say they have learned much from previous failures. That means that negotiations can not simply occur at the top without on-the-ground progress. That is why so much effort is being put into changes in the West Bank — security, economy, freedom of movement. They say that in the coming weeks, several big projects in the West Bank will see breakthroughs, including a new Palestinian cell phone company and a new Palestinian city, both of which are being held up by Israeli objections.
The mediators also seem to hope something else is true — low expectations all around may actually make it easier to achieve results. And with a common concern about Iran’s nuclear program, once a small breakthrough occurs, perhaps others might follow.
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