Neither the aggressive statements made by Defense Minister Ehud Barak in support of evacuating West Bank outposts, his growing agreement with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the need to evacuate some of the illegal Jewish settlements, nor the evacuation of the Maoz Ester outpost on Thursday necessarily point to a fundamental change in the government's policy on the matter.
Israel has been promising the United States that it will evacuate the outposts for at least six years, ever since the "road map" plan was introduced in 2003. Occasionally, it actually makes good on this. The insistence displayed by U.S. President Barack Obama during his meeting with Netanyahu earlier this week may certainly spur the government into carrying out a few symbolic gestures. But Netanyahu will find it difficult to comply with the U.S. government's pressure to stop construction related to "natural growth" in the settlements; the outposts seem to be a more comfortable place to make gestures. Barak, in particular, stresses how the continued existence of outposts undermines the rule of law. Many of the outposts are built on Palestinian land and require the state to act.
But Barak has made such statements for almost two years. In order to carry out a substantial evacuation of outposts, authorities must draw up a detailed plan involving not only police officers but also hundreds of soldiers from the Israel Defense Forces, which is still licking its wounds from its involvement in the 2005 withdrawal from Gaza. Such an operation will have a high political price for Netanyahu. Likud ministers might be persuaded by the legal argument, but will it sway coalition members from parties further to the right, such as National Union and Habayit Haleumi?
At the same time, Jewish settlers are expanding outposts and taking over more land. Without more substantial steps being taken on Israel's part, it is hard to believe the U.S. will reduce its pressure.
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