Attempted and actual terror attacks in the last month seem random, with no obvious pattern. There was an abortive bulldozer rampage in Jerusalem (the third in a year), two policemen were murdered in the Jordan Valley, a booby-trapped car was left at a Haifa mall, and the most horrific of all came yesterday with the ax-murder of a child in the Bat Ayin settlement.
The murders in the valley and especially the attempted car bomb in Haifa seem to have been planned and carried out by an organized terror group, possibly inspired and guided by terrorists abroad. The tractor driver in Jerusalem and the axman in Bat Ayin will probably be labeled by the Shin Bet as "popular terror" - mostly carried out by lone terrorists only loosely affiliated to official organizations. These men have no real training and use whatever weapons come to hand like an ax or vehicle.
It seems however that the incidents' succession can no longer be ignored. The West Bank and Israel have been considered relatively safe again to Israelis in the last two years. The recent events raise concern that this may no longer be so.
This does not mean that defense forces' efforts to stop Palestinian terror in the West Bank have failed. Hundreds of terror attacks have been foiled in the past two years. But in the last few weeks the threat has increased and it seems that Israel has not worked out a response yet.
Even before verifying the identity of the recent attackers, one can assume that the increase in incidents may be connected to political developments. The right-wing Israeli government could discourage the Palestinian Authority's defense forces from continuing the coordination with the Shin Bet and IDF intended to thwart terror attacks.
Coupled with PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's weakening status and the economic recession in the West Bank, the situation raises concern.
And yet, the perpetrator of yesterday's ax and knife attack could be driven by both personal and national motivations. Many times these assailants act alone, sometimes to "settle accounts" related to the terrorist's family or village. Bat Ayin is not fenced, for ideological reasons, making it more difficult for the army to protect it.
The settlement's relations with the neighboring Palestinian villages are strained. Two years ago Bat Ayin settler Erez Levanon was stabbed to death. About five years ago the Shin Bet exposed the "Bat Ayin underground" - a group that planned to attack Palestinian schools.
Yesterday's murder must raise the Shin Bet's Jewish division's alertness to the possibility of revenge attacks. The boy wounded in the attack is the son of one of the underground members, who is serving a prison sentence.
After previous attacks in the area the Shin Bet acted quickly to find the perpetrators. Yesterday it took the first steps to find the terrorist but no real progress was reported. The settlers and right-wing MKs have already accused Defense Minister Ehud Barak as responsible for the attack and connected the murder to the removal of roadblocks in the area. The same argument was made after the attack in the valley, although it was not proved that the murderers had used a road where a roadblock had been removed. Barak may yet find himself as the right wing's punching bag despite joining Netanyahu's cabinet.
In the past the settlers pressured right-wing governments to respond by building a new outpost or neighborhood in the West Bank. This time, with Netanyahu preparing for his first visit in Washington, it is hard to believe that this will happen.
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