The Obama administration has hit the ground running in the Middle East by virtually reversing all the traditional positions of the Bush administration: from neglect to activism, from clash of civilizations to dialogue of civilizations, from believing that the Arab-Israel conflict cannot be resolved to believing that despite difficulties the hope is there.
The early March visit by newly appointed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the appointment of George Mitchell as special envoy for Middle East peace negotiations, and the granting of $900 million for the Palestinian Authority and Gaza reconstruction all signaled that the United States really means business in the region.
In early March, 71 states and 16 international organizations met in Sharm el-Sheikh to grant $5.2 billion for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for an international conference for the Middle East before the end of the year and Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy expressed interest in hosting Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in Sicily.
Yet it is still early for the Obama team to opt for optimism in the Middle East. The history of failures in the region is not the only justification for caution. The crisis in Gaza is not yet over. The situation along the Gaza-Israel border is still fragile. The negotiations in Cairo aimed at stabilizing the ceasefire and among the Palestinian factions have encountered a variety of obstacles.
Moreover, there are structural problems that are very difficult to resolve. First, the Israeli public elected an extreme right wing majority to the Knesset. Attempts by the United States and other countries to encourage formation of a mainstream Israeli government, even one right of center, have mostly failed. Even though the small Labor party joined the Netanyahu government, the new more right-wing alignment will have neither the intention nor the ability to resume the peace path.
Second, during the past few years the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority (PA) was undermined by two opposite forces: Hamas and Israel. The former made it impossible for the PA to fulfill its obligations under Palestinian-Israeli agreements to prevent the use of force, whether terrorist or resistance, against Israel. The latter, by building settlements and reoccupying Palestinian territories, made it impossible for the PA to be the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. This was one of those ironies of history in which two arch-enemies work in unison to achieve the same strategic goal: in this case, ending the possibility of a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli question. What did happen was that the PA failed in substance but was resilient in form. Whether under the leadership of Yasser Arafat or Mahmoud Abbas, the PA lost its powers to manage both Palestinian lives and the Palestinian cause. The Israeli propensity for unilateral steps, including building the separation wall, and Hamas' success in the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections opened the door for a fundamentally new Palestinian situation that is not ripe for serious negotiations. Even before the new Israeli government has assumed its responsibilities, a project for massive construction of settlements in the West Bank is in place and major de-Palestinization of East Jerusalem is at work. For Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims there is no peace without East Jerusalem as capital of the Palestinian state.
However, the approach of the Obama administration to the Palestinian question is thus far more regional than it is captive of the specificities of the conflict. It is much more important to create an environment conducive to peacemaking and serving American global interests. Promising to visit Ankara to mend fences with the Islamic world, asking for a serious dialogue with Tehran on all issues to give Iran its rightful place under the sun and clearing the air that was polluted by the Bush administration in Cairo and Riyadh are all steps in that direction.
Such an approach will provide incentives for the parties to move in the right direction. Its success or failure remains to be seen. It will be an uphill battle for Obama, but without it all his other objectives in the Middle East will be jeopardized.
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