Hopes for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal that will isolate the Hamas radicals who control the Gaza Strip have brightened measurably in recent days, according to European officials visiting here. The real news is that the Europeans report this possible outcome without a frown.
Their cautious but clear optimism is based primarily on movement in the private preparatory talks between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who are both so weakened politically that they may have no place to go but toward peace.
There is no certainty that the November conference the Bush administration hopes to sponsor will work or even happen. In the Middle East, an unexpected day of atrocity or domestic political upheaval can cancel months of diplomatic groundbreaking. The safe bet is always the same: no peace now.
But the belated U.S. mediation in the Middle East led by Condi Rice does illuminate three long-term changes that have to be taken into account in judging whether the secretary of state can wring agreement on principles from Olmert and Abbas:
¿ The takeover of Gaza by Hamas has given Olmert, Abbas and the diplomatic "Quartet" of Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations a common cause -- and general agreement on means. The goal of the November conference is an agreement that will gradually encourage the Palestinians in Gaza to desert Hamas and follow Abbas's reformed Palestinian Authority.
Abbas is said by diplomatic sources to be resigned to such an accord being his swan song as leader. He will be ready to step aside in a generational change that would accelerate if Israel then releases the popular imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences for murders committed under his command.
Olmert's motivation for dealing is to stay, not to go. A peace accord is his best bet to reverse woefully low approval ratings sparked by the mishandled military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon last year. If he can get Abbas to acknowledge the inevitable -- to grant formally that Israel will have a decisive say in the administering of a "right of return" by Palestinian refugees to Israel -- Olmert could be the peace candidate in Israel's next elections.
¿ Europe's long-standing political and romantic fascination with Palestinian radicals and their cause has ebbed to its lowest point in four decades. The destruction wrought by suicide bombings and other terrorist acts in the second intifada, as well as Gaza's implosion after Israel's unilateral withdrawal, have contributed to a more equal rebalancing of European sentiment.
Arab officials are dismayed by the dramatic change that has occurred in France since Nicolas Sarkozy's election as president in May. Sarkozy has openly expressed his intent to offer Israel greater support internationally. He has also indicated that he will move away from the pro-Arab policy established by Charles de Gaulle in 1967 and pursued with vigor by Sarkozy's predecessor, Jacques Chirac.
But it is not only France. When Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi visited Israel this summer, he made clear his coalition government's backing of the Quartet's initiative, which now features former British prime minister Tony Blair as a special envoy.
"We see exactly what you are doing," Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak told a European official recently in a dismissive manner, according to notes of the conversation taken by the official. "You will lose a lot in the Arab world."
¿ Mubarak's defiance points to a third, less positive, change: his entrenched immobility on peace with Israel, as well as on political change and on deepening social problems at home. Under Anwar Sadat, Egypt was a catalyst for peace and regional change. Now Egypt says it will come to the U.S.-sponsored conference in November in a completely passive mode. It will be there to support Saudi Arabia, not American peacemaking.
The Saudis at least seem to have a more activist approach. Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal told reporters in New York on Wednesday that an Israeli "moratorium on the building of settlements" in the West Bank "will be a good signal to show a serious intent" to reach peace. He suggested it would enable Saudi Arabia to come to the conference.
U.S. encouragement of a meaningful moratorium by Israel now is a key step in rescuing Gaza from Hamas this winter. So is full U.S. support for Blair's ambitious effort to engage moderate forces in Gaza. Circumstances may be just desperate enough for reason and good will to break out suddenly.
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