It is no secret that the period of Hamas' rule in Gaza since 2007 has been one of little or no accomplishment and of supremely unimaginative leadership. The Islamist movement has provided its enemy with a pretext to bring ruin on the very people whose rights a resistance group is supposed to defend. It is not just the rival Fatah faction that recognizes this: Even some long-time supporters of Hamas' tougher line have now retreated to a more pragmatic middle ground from which the obvious conclusion is that flipping makeshift rockets at a regional superpower will never liberate occupied land, only expose the dispossessed to further hardship.
It is the Israelis, through, who seem poised to embark on a course of even greater folly. Fresh from having convinced Hamas not to renew a six-month cease-fire by maintaining a crescendo of violations and then punctuating it with a series of deadly attack this month and last, Israel's government is issuing all sorts of ominous warnings about invading the already battered enclave and "toppling" the de facto Hamas administration there. In fact, virtually all sides in the ongoing campaign ahead of February's general elections are engaged in a competition to see who can utter the most frightening threats about what they will do to Gaza if and when they get the chance.
The Israelis have been down this road before, and it has never worked. Sure, churning up Gaza and scattering Hamas' forces would be easier than the failed attempt to accomplish something similar against Hizbullah here in Lebanon in 2006. It might even help some members of the Israeli military to regain a measure of the confidence lost in places like Aita al-Shaab and Maroun al-Ras. But once the Israelis have had their way with Gaza, what then? Will the citizens of Israel be any closer to being accepted by their neighbors? Will those Palestinians and other Arabs willing to negotiate a peace - not a surrender - have any more credibility with their respective publics?
The answer to both questions is a resounding "no" - and no one should understand this better than the Israelis themselves. They have had a habit of undermining whatever Palestinian "peace partners" they have ever had, fulfilling their own prophecies by crippling moderates and empowering hard-liners. An invasion of Gaza will be no different than the hundreds of other bloody assaults the Zionist state has launched against Arabs over the past six decades: Innocent people will die, revenge will be exacted against Israeli soldiers and civilians alike, and the peace process will be set back.
Whatever happens in Gaza, and whether or not an attempt is made to delay, derail or dissemble, the next Israeli government will eventually have to sit down for negotiations with the Palestinians. So why carry out a new slaughter that will only make those negotiations more difficult?
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