Change in US Middle East policy as a result of Tuesday's elections is expected to be "evolutionary, not revolutionary," according to diplomatic assessments in Jerusalem.
According to these assessments, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Israeli-Syrian talks are not expected to be on the top of the new president's agenda during the transition period, defined roughly as the period starting Wednesday and lasting until the new president's national security team is up and running.
"We are not the first priority," one senior diplomatic official said, reflecting the consensus thinking in the Foreign Ministry. According to this thinking, the new president will first need to tackle the economy, the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan, the tension with Russia and a worsening situation for the US in South America - the US's "own backyard" - before tackling the Middle East conflict.
The new administration's priorities will likely be first revealed by the order in which the new president announces his cabinet selections. The president-elect will need to choose some 30 people to serve as his top White House staff and cabinet ministers before the January 20 inaugural.
The Washington based Center for US Global Engagement put out a brief report on what to expect in the transition period, saying it was likely the new president would make appointing his top economic team - the secretary of the Treasury, head of the Office of Management and Budget and chair of the National Economic Council - his first priority.
Bill Clinton did this in 1992, indicating that the economy was his number-one priority by naming those three appointments before picking his secretaries of state and defense, or his national security adviser. The report also said it was likely, because of the two wars the US is involved in, that the president-elect would fill his national security and foreign affairs portfolios early as well, perhaps having the whole team assembled before Thanksgiving, on November 27.
The cabinet appointments will have to be confirmed by the Senate.
Israel, however, will not be waiting until then to make high-level contact with the new transition team, with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni expected to meet someone from the new administration's transition team when she goes to New York on November 12-13 to take part in a Saudi Arabian initiated inter-religious conference at the UN. No special team to deal with the transition period in US politics has been set up in the Foreign Ministry.
One senior diplomatic official said this transition period is a little different than previous ones for Israel, because it is a "double whammy," since Israel is also currently in a political "twilight zone."
"The new president will take some time to get ready," one senior diplomatic official said. "And it is unlikely he will do anything here until we are ready, which probably won't be until after Pessah."
With Israel's elections set for February 10, it would likely take at least until the middle of March for a government to be in place. The last day of Pessah is April 15.
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