These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 28 and 30 August 2008. This period witnessed a relative consolidation of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip and the release by Israel of about 200 Palestinian prisoners as a gesture to President Mahmud Abbas. The poll examines the following topics: the domestic balance of power, the performance and legitimacy of two governments, that of Ismail Haniyeh and Salam Fayyad, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip, and the peace process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org [2].
Table of contents:
1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions
2) Ceasefire and Prisoners? Exchange
3) Peace Process
4)Main Findings in numbers
Main Findings:
Findings of the third quarter of 2008 indicate continued slow decline in Hamas?s popularity while Fateh?s popularity remains stable as it was during the second quarter. Similarly, findings show a slightly wider gap between the popularity of President Abbas compared to that of Ismail Haniyeh in favor of the former. Positive evaluation of the conditions of Palestinians in the West Bank remains higher than that of conditions in the Gaza Strip. This applies to overall conditions as well as those of democracy and human rights. Findings show also significant opposition to Hamas?s military entry into Shijaiah in the Gaza Strip in early August. They also show widespread belief that the term of President Abbas ends in the first month of January 2009, as Hamas claims, and not in the first month of 2010, as the presidency claims. Findings also indicate an overwhelming support for the continuation of the current ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip despite recognition of many that it will not lead to the opening of the Rafah Crossing with Egypt. Despite the support for the ceasefire, about two thirds also support kidnapping of Israeli soldiers in order to exchange them with Palestinian prisoners.
It was expected that the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel would lead to improvement in Hamas?s standing among the public. But the fact that Hamas continues to lose public support might be due to strong opposition to its behavior in dealing with Shijaiah incident which led to several deaths and the escape of several members of the Hillis family to Israel. Moreover, the fact that the Rafah crossing remained closed since the ceasefire and that the other crossings were only partially opened might have weakened Hamas?s appeal. On the other hand, findings show an improvement in the perception of security and safety in the West Bank which might have been responsible in part for the improvement in Abbas?s standing. Moreover, Israel?s release of about 200 Palestinian prisoners at the end of August might have also played in Abbas?s favor.
1)Domestic Palestinian Conditions
* If new presidential elections are held today, and the only two candidates were Abbas and Haniyeh, the former would receive the support of 53% and the latter 39%. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 61% to Haniyeh?s 34%.
* If new parliamentary elections are to take place today, Hamas would receive 29% and Fateh would receive 43%. Percentage of those who would vote for other factions and parties stands today at 11% and the undecided at 16%.
* Positive evaluation of the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad stands at 34%; similarly, positive evaluation of Haniyeh?s government stands today at 34%. 33% say Fayyad?s government is the legitimate one while 27% say Haniyeh?s government is the legitimate one.
* Perception of personal and family security and safety stands at 43% in the West Bank and 54% in the Gaza Strip.
* An overwhelming majority (69%) opposes Hamas?s armed entry into the Shijaiah neighborhood in the Gaza Strip and 20% support it.
* 63% believe that Abbas term as president ends in January 2009, not in January 2010.
The Gap between the standing of PA President Mahmud Abbas and Hamas?s Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has increased to 14 percentage points in favor of Abbas. If new presidential elections are held today, and the only two candidates were Abbas and Haniyeh, the former would receive the support of 53% and the latter 39%. This finding represents a slight increase in the popularity of Abbas which stood at 52% last June compared to 40% for Haniyeh. Haniyeh?s popularity reached its peak last March, in the aftermath of the breaching of the Rafah border, when it stood at 47% compared to 46% for Abbas. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 61% to Haniyeh?s 34%. Level of non-participation in the presidential elections would reach 37% if the competition was between Abbas and Haniyeh and 27% if the competition was between Barghouti and Haniyeh. Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas increases slightly from 46% last June to 48% in this poll. Level of dissatisfaction reaches 47% today.
Moreover, the gap between Fateh and Hamas increases from 12 percentage points last June to 14 percentage points in this poll. If new parliamentary elections are to take place today, Hamas would receive 29% (compared to 31% last June) and Fateh would receive 43% (same as in June). Percentage of those who would vote for other factions and parties stands today at 11% and the undecided at 16%.
Positive evaluation of the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad remains as it was last June standing at 34% and the negative evaluation at 34%. Similarly, positive evaluation of Haniyeh?s government stands today at 34% and negative evaluation at 39%. Last June, positive evaluation of Haniyeh?s government stood at 37% and negative evaluation at 35%. Today, 33% say Fayyad?s government is the legitimate one while 27% say Haniyeh?s government is the legitimate one. Last June, belief in the legitimacy of the Fayyad government reached 31% compared to 29% for Haniyeh?s. Last March, Haniyeh?s government was perceived as legitimate by 34%.
Perception of personal and family security and safety increases in the West Bank from 40% last June to 43% in this poll. But the percentage of personal and family security and safety in the Gaza Strip is higher than in the West Bank as it reaches 54% (compared to 49% in Gaza last June). By contrast, positive evaluation of the overall conditions of Palestinians in the West Bank is higher than in the Gaza Strip, with only 8% describing conditions on the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 27% describing the same conditions in the West Bank and good or very good. Last June, positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stood at 5% compared to 25% in the West Bank. Similarly, 34% give a positive evaluation of the status of democracy in the West Bank while only 24% describe the same conditions in the Gaza Strip as good or very good.
An overwhelming majority (69%) opposes Hamas?s armed entry into the Shijaiah neighborhood in the Gaza Strip (an event that led to several deaths and the escape of several members of Hillis family to Israel) while only 20% support it. Support for Hamas?s action increases in the Gaza Strip, reaching 35% compared to 12% in the West Bank. The wide gap in support between the two areas might reflect a greater Hamas media influence in Gaza Strip compared to the West Bank. Indeed, our findings show that 21% in the Gaza Strip watch Hamas?s satellite TV station, al Aqsa, compared to only 6% in the West Bank. Moreover, support for Hamas?s action in Shijaiah increases in refugee camps (27%) compared to villages and towns (16%), among men (25%) compared to women (16%), among those who identify themselves as religious (23%) compared to those who identify themselves as somewhat religious (17%), among those opposed to the peace process (41%) compared to supporters of the peace process (16%), among supporters of Hamas (53%) compared to supporters of Fateh (5%), among refugees (25%) compared to non refugees (16%), among those who hold a BA degree (24%) compared to those how hold a preparatory certificate (13%), among those with the least income (25%) compared to those with the highest income (15%), and among those whose age is between 18-22 years old (26%) compared to those whose age is over 52 years (17%).
23% believe that Fateh is responsible for the Gaza explosion that led to the death of five Hamas members last June while 43% believe it was not responsible; 33% say they do not know.
A majority of 63% believes that Abbas term as president ends in January 2009, as Hamas claims (i.e., four years after he was elected), while only 23% believe that his term extends to five years ending in January 2010, as the presidency claims. Belief that the president?s term ends in January 2009 increases among those who oppose the peace process (74%) compared to those who support the peace process (59%), among supporters of Hamas (79%) compared to supporters of Fateh (52%), among those who hold a BA degree (69%) compared to illiterates (40%), among students (71%) compared to employees (56%), and among those whose age is between 18-22 years old (67%) compared to those whose age is over 52 years (56%).
2)Ceasefire and Prisoners? Exchange
* 81% support and 15% oppose the continuation of the current ceasefire in the Gaza Strip
* 49% believe that if the ceasefire continues, it will lead to the opening of the Rafah crossing with Egypt and 42% believe it will not
* 60% describe Hamas?s performance in the ceasefire negotiations with Israel as good or very good and 28% describe it as bad or very bad
* 75% view the prisoners? exchange deal between Hezbollah and Israel as a victory for Hezbollah and 7% view it as a victory for Israel
* If an agreement is reached on a prisoners? exchange between Hamas and Israel, 46% expect the deal to be a victory for Hamas and 26% expect it to be a victory for Israel
* 59% believe that the best way to free Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails is by reaching a peace agreement that would include release of prisoners, but 39% believe the best way is by kidnapping Israeli soldiers and exchanging them with Palestinian prisoners
* But given the experience of the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, 74% support and 21% oppose kidnapping of soldiers to exchange them with Palestinian and Arab prisoners
Findings show that 81% of the Palestinians support and 15% oppose the continuation of the current ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. It is worth noting that our June 2008 poll found that 78% supported and 21% opposed a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. But we also found at that time that support was very low (23%) to a ceasefire that was restricted to the Gaza Strip and did not include the West Bank. Support was even lower (20%) for an agreement that did not allow for the opening of the crossings, particularly the Rafah crossing. Findings of the current poll indicate that 49% of the Palestinians believe that if the ceasefire continues, it will lead to the opening of the Rafah crossing and 42% believe it will not. Despite the fact that the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel was restricted to the Gaza Strip and did not allow for a normal functioning of the Rafah crossing, a majority of 60% describes Hamas?s performance in the ceasefire negotiations as good or very good while only 28% view it as bad or very bad.
Findings show that three quarters of the Palestinians believe that the prisoners? exchange agreement between Hezbollah and Israel was a victory for Hezbollah while only 7% view it as a victory for Israel. But the percentage of those who believe that a prisoners? exchange agreement between Hamas and Israel will be a victory for Hamas does not exceed 46% and 26% believe it will be a victory for Israel.
A majority of 59% believes that the best way to free Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails is by reaching a peace agreement that includes their release while 39% believe the best way is by kidnapping Israeli soldiers and exchanging them with Palestinian prisoners. But when asked about the lessons learned from the experience of the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, the overwhelming majority (74%) says it supports and only 21% say it opposes kidnapping of soldiers to exchange them with Palestinian and Arab prisoners. In other words, despite the preference for diplomacy, the majority shows little confidence in its viability and opts instead for non-diplomatic means.
Belief that the best way to release Palestinian prisoners is by reaching a peace agreement increases in villages and towns (62%) compared to refugee camps (53%), among women (64%) compared to men (53%), among supporters of the peace process (68%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (21%), among supporters of Fateh (77%) compared to supporters of Hamas (32%), among holders of preparatory certificate (68%) compared to holders of BA degree (48%), among farmers (71%) and housewives (66%) compared to students (52%), and among private sector employees (59%) compared to public sector employees (47%).
3)Peace Process
* 57% support and 41% oppose a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the resolution of all issues of the conflict
* 68% support and 30% oppose the Saudi Initiative
* 70% support and 28% oppose reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement between the two sides
* But 43% believe that reconciliation between the two peoples is not possible ever
* Moreover, 69% believe that the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are low or non existent while 28% believe the chances are medium or high
* 12% believe that negotiations unleashed by the Annapolis Conference will succeed in ending Israeli occupation while 76% believe it will fail
* Similarly, 74% believe that it is impossible to reach a permanent settlement with the current Olmert government and 64% say that Abbas-Olmert meetings are not beneficial and should be stopped.
Findings show that a Palestinian majority (57%) supports a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after the establishment of a Palestinian state and the resolution of all issues of the conflict. Opposition to this mutual recognition stands at 41%. These figures are almost identical to those obtained last June. Findings also show that two thirds (68%) of the public support and 30% oppose the Saudi Initiative. The Initiative calls for an Israeli withdrawal from all Arab territories occupied since 1967 and the establishment of a Palestinian state and for reaching a just and agreed upon solution to the refugee problem based on UN resolution number 194. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders and will sign peace treaties and establish normal diplomatic relations with it. These findings are almost identical to those obtained last June.
Findings also show that a large majority of 70% supports reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement between the two sides and after the establishment of a Palestinian state recognized by Israel. Opposition to reconciliation stands at 28%. In this context, support for open borders and free movement of individuals and goods between the two states reaches 84%. Support for the establishment of joint economic institutions and ventures reaches 71%. Support for the establishment of joint political institutions, such as a parliament, with the ultimate goal of creating a confederation between the two states reaches 41%. Support for taking legal measures against incitement against Israel reaches 36%, and support for adopting a school curriculum that recognizes Israel and teaches school children not to demand return of all Palestine to the Palestinians reaches 13%. In the context of reconciliation, 32% say that they would invite an Israeli colleague to their homes and an identical percentage says it would accept an invitation from an Israeli colleague to visit his or her home.
Despite support for reconciliation, a large percentage of 43% believes that reconciliation is not possible ever. Moreover, 69% believe that chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state within the next five years are low or non existent while only 28% say the chances are high or medium. More than three quarters (76%) believe that the negotiations unleashed by the Annapolis conference will fail in ending Israeli occupation while only 12% believe it will succeed. In the same context, 74% believe that it is impossible to reach a compromise permanent agreement with the government of Ehud Olmert and 64% say that Olmert-Abbas meetings are not beneficial and should be stopped.
PSR Poll No. 29
28-30 August 2008
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