Defense Ministry officials yesterday pointed with satisfaction at the low number of Qassam rockets launched at Israel from the Gaza Strip in the past few days. Here was proof of the wisdom of Defense Minister Ehud Barak's decision last weekend to impose a total blockade on Gaza, in response to the ceaseless fire from Hamas. Just last week there were 42 launches a day on average, whereas in the past two days there were only four. And maybe finally, Israelis hope, the magical solution to the Qassams has been found that will save the Israel Defense Forces from a major ground offensive with heavy casualties.
But on Sunday it already emerged that not everyone in the defense establishment shared Barak's new-old thinking, that pressure on the Palestinian populace in Gaza is to be used against the Qassams only as a last resort. Many within the establishment believed it was very convenient for Hamas to play the victim in the international arena, but that if Israel kept up overly heavy pressure on Gaza, Hamas would respond with massive rocket fire.
That being the case, Israel would be forced to return fire, but could not maintain a complete siege because of the humanitarian disaster expected to result. Ultimately, officials opposed to Barak's position said, Israel would give up the notion of a total blockade, after severe damage had been done to its reputation in the world, the Palestinian political system will unite behind Hamas against Israel, and the standing of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will weaken further. Even worse, the rocket fire won't end.
Yesterday, part of that prediction already came true. Following the conversation between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Israel will open the crossings today to diesel fuel and medications. The damage to Israel's reputation has been done, as has the damage to Abbas.
What, then, was behind Barak's decision? Evidently it was mainly a wish to try. After it turned out that limited ground operations had not helped to stop the rockets, he may have hoped that punishing 1.5 million residents would prevent an escalation to a sweeping offensive. It's doubtful he believed this would actually halt the Qassams, but as one of his associates says, "at least we tried. Before you take other actions, you have to exhaust all the options."
Meanwhile, the primary sufferers in this experiment are the Gazans. Despite the soothing note sounded by the Israeli defense establishment regarding the humanitarian situation in the Strip, it appears that at army headquarters in Tel Aviv they have not managed to grasp how near-catastrophic the situation was in Gaza yesterday. Besides the blackout, some water and sewage pumps were down because of the actual fuel shortage (not because of Hamas spin). Hospitals had fuel supplies for just a few days, no more. United Nations relief agencies also warned that unless the crossings are opened in the next few days, they will not be able to distribute food products to residents, which might have caused mass hunger.
But the residents will be the ones to pay the price in the coming weeks as well. A few minutes after Barak's office announced that Israel will permit entry of fuel and medications (an announcement that came "surprisingly" an hour before Barak's speech at the Herzliya Conference), another two Qassam rockets were fired at the Sderot region. If the fire intensifies, Barak's associates promise, the gates of Gaza will not remain open. The experiment will continue.
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