President George W. Bush is coming to the end of his first extensive trip to the Middle East. The journey has crystallised the recent adjustment in US policy in the region. Until some months ago, Mr Bush was marked by his belligerent neo-conservatism, hollering for democracy to take root in Arab states while refraining from pushing peace between Israel and the Palestinians. His approach has changed – but doubts persist over what he can achieve in his final year.
Some of Mr Bush’s utterances on the peace process in recent days have been noteworthy. In Ramallah, he stated that there should be “an end to the Israeli occupation that began in 1967”. He has pledged to return to Israel in May to pursue the process. But whether he will truly engage – above all in persuading Israel to give up West Bank settlements – remains to be seen.
The trip has also seen Mr Bush tone down his clarion call for democracy to take root in the region. In 2005, he talked about the need to “support the growth of democratic movements in every nation”. But at the weekend he refrained from criticising any Arab state. The change is pragmatic. Mr Bush wants Gulf states to join his drive to isolate Iran in the face of a charm offensive from Tehran. He doubtless thinks it best to avoid angering regional autocrats by going on about their lack of democracy.
US policy towards Iran, of course, is the one area where this trip has marked no change – at least as far as Mr Bush’s rhetoric is concerned. His constant refrain is that Iran poses a threat to world security.
Yet here, too, the underlying direction of US policy is in flux. Mr Bush may rail against Iran, but his hands are tied by last month’s independent US intelligence assessment that Iran stopped militarising its nuclear programme in 2003. That now makes it very tough for him to sell the case for military action to the American people.
Mr Bush is right to keep a spotlight on Iran’s activities. Iran must now be transparent with the International Atomic Energy Agency over allegations it tried to construct a nuclear bomb before 2003. The international community, meanwhile, must stick to its demand that Iran suspends its uranium enrichment programme.
But Mr Bush’s room for manoeuvre is constrained. He risks becoming eclipsed by the electric contest taking place to elect his successor. A determined effort by the president to forge peace between Israel and the Palestinians is now the only way he can keep himself in the spotlight.
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