Maria Appakova

After his talks in Jerusalem and Ramallah, U.S. President George W. Bush said that an Arab-Israeli peace agreement would be reached by the end of the year. He was less optimistic of a settlement within Palestine; and he was unsure that the Palestinian president would be able to resolve the problem anytime soon.

No impressive results were expected from Bush's first visit to the Holy Land as president. It seemed that his administration was much more concerned about Iran than a Palestinian-Israeli settlement. The Iranians poured more oil on the flames in a confrontation with American ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Bush immediately lashed out at Tehran. The Iranian topic was much more interesting for most journalists and political scientists than the vague prospects of Palestinian-Israeli settlement.

Bush said nothing new during his visit, and the situation in the Middle East is now determined by the confrontation between Iran and the United States. But paradoxically, Bush considers it a matter of honor to achieve a peace agreement between the Palestinians and the Israelis against the backdrop of this confrontation.

"The peace agreement should happen, and can happen, by the end of this year ... and I am committed to doing all I can to achieve it," Bush promised.

The more the U.S. president talks about the establishment of a Palestinian state by the end of his term, the more he believes in it. He is almost ready to swear on the Bible.

No policymaker has dared talk about peace in the Middle East with such certainty (setting deadlines). Numerous agreements and international resolutions have required that the warring parties should fulfill their commitments by certain dates, but it all remained on paper. Far more seasoned diplomats and politicians have crossed swords over a peace settlement.

But strange as it may seem, Bush with his cowboy manners may achieve success, because he believes in his historical mission. As distinct from previous peacemakers, he doesn't stumble over such trifles as a split within the Palestinian communities, or Israel's settlement policy, or rocket attacks against Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip.

Bush followed the same logic when he engineered the downfall of President Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, but without going into details about how the country would live after the U.S. invasion. Saddam is "absolute evil," whereas freedom and democracy are indisputable values -- there is no doubt in Bush's mind.

He is guided by the same logic when talking about a Palestinian-Israeli settlement. Peace agreements and the formation of a Palestinian state are an objective necessity. Why couldn't it happen now? For Bush, this would be a moral victory over the forces of evil: Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaida, and numerous groups operating in Iraq and the entire Middle East.

But most importantly for the American leader, this would spell victory over Iran.

Bush does not suggest any new recipes. All stages of a Middle East settlement have been repeatedly discussed in general terms before him. The U.S. president is simply saying that they will resolve their problem. Even if all the analysts in the world insist that it is impossible, Bush's can-do spirit could make it happen. Going into detail seems inappropriate in the face of his messianic zeal. It is more fitting to make forecasts, not about the signing of Palestinian-Israeli agreements, but about developments after their signing.

It is again possible to draw a parallel with the situation in Iraq where the worst predictions of experts given on the eve of the coalition's invasion came true. But today are we discussing whether Saddam's regime should have been toppled? This is the new reality and everyone has to deal with it.

The Palestinian-Israeli situation will be the same. It makes sense, however, to avoid the bitter mistakes of Iraq, and think in advance of a detailed course of action for the future. But this is hardly possible with Bush. Today, he is talking about "painful concessions," which the Palestinians and Israelis should make on the road to peace. Soon, though, they will have to deal with the painful consequences of that peace.