George W. Bush has predicted a peace deal this year between Israel and the Palestinians ahead of his most extensive visit yet to the Middle East.
US officials say the president will devote the week-long tour, in which he will travel to six countries and the Palestinian territories, to pushing for Middle East peace, rallying his regional allies against Iran and reviving Washington’s stalled democratisation agenda.
There are formidable obstacles to all three goals. Since peace talks were launched at Annapolis in November, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators have made little progress, though it is expected they will reach agreement on basic procedural issues, such as the composition and responsibility of working groups, early this week.
Many Arab countries maintain closer relations with Iran than Washington would like and the White House admits it is disappointed by the lack of progress towards democracy in the region in the past couple of years.
Mr Bush, however, is undaunted. “I believe the time is ripe,” he said of an Israeli-Palestinian deal in an interview with Yediot Ahronot, the Israeli newspaper, as he prepared for his trip. “There will be a comprehensive peace signed by the end of this year.”
Officials say meetings between Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, and Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, have remained cordial and constructive but the atmosphere has been tense between the negotiating teams.
The Palestinians have criticised the planned expansion of a Jewish settlement on Arab land south of Jerusalem and the Israelis have hit back over the PA’s inability to stop violent attacks by Palestinian militants.
Mr Bush transmitted an ambiguous message on Israeli settlements, one of the key points of contention, ahead of his visit to Israel, his first stop, on Wednesday. The US, he said, expected Israelis to “honour their commitments” to dismantle illegal settlements but was aware that “realities on the ground” would shape an eventual Israeli-Palestinian border.
White House officials also say that the negotiations will have to address Israeli calls for a “demilitarised” Palestinian state, with Israeli overflight rights.
Mr Olmert last week appealed for patience, saying: “Our conflict with the Palestinians will not end in one meeting or 50 meetings between me and Abu Mazen [Mr Abbas].”
However, it is clear that Mr Bush will arrive at a stage in the peace negotiations where the two sides have yet seriously to broach sensitive issues such as the status of Jerusalem or the fate of Palestinian refugees.
His visit also comes as the administration seeks to overcome congressional resistance to the sale of bomb guidance kits to Saudi Arabia – a centrepiece of a series of arms deals with Gulf states aimed at countering Iran’s influence.
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