Extreme right-wing activists are expected to use severe violence to disrupt any move to evacuate outposts or settlements, even the destruction of a few homes, according to an evaluation recently presented to the government by the security establishment and law enforcement officials in the territories.
The evaluation states that the violence during any attempt at evacuation would be more serious than that seen during the evacuation of Amona two years ago.
However security officials do not at this stage foresee an increased threat to the lives of senior politicians, because the extreme right does not appear to believe the Annapolis process will succeed and therefore the settlements are not in danger.
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After the evacuation of Amona two years ago, the ideological foundations and plans of actions were reformulated against future evacuations. In a booklet distributed at one of the extreme-right rallies, the message was that violence might deter the government from additional evacuations.
"The war must be brought to the field of the enemy," the booklet said. "In this matter and in this situation [evacuation], the IDF is the enemy."
The security establishment believes that any attempt to evacuate settlements will result in violence against the security forces, large-scale disturbances, and endangerment of human life. The experts also see widespread refusal of orders in the IDF.
The security establishment says there has been erosion in the ability of IDF commanders to act as mediators of the extremist elements in the settlement population, because of the part the army played in disengagement. They say violence in future evacuation attempts may increase because the settlers saw the rabbis' promise that disengagement would not happen as false, and believe they have only themselves to rely on to prevent additional evacuations.
Many extremists consider protests that remain within the law pathetic, and that the violent protest during the evacuation at Amona should be the least they do the next time.
In complete opposition to media reports, which foresaw a wave of violence on the extreme right and increase security around the prime minister in the near future, the Shin Bet security service's Judea and Samaria division has not seen unusual activity on the extreme right. It is believed that as long as the extreme right does not see immediate danger to the future of Jerusalem, the settlements or the outposts, they will not act.
The impression of the experts is that Israel is very far from civil war. The number of intelligence tips regarding violent plans or statements by the extreme right are very low, certainly in comparison to the period of the Camp David conference in July 2000 or ahead of disengagement in August 2005. The level of threat toward two central targets that concern the Shin Bet - the prime minister and the mosques on the Temple Mount - are considered very low.
The analysis of violent acts in the past by extreme right-wing elements against cabinet ministers and Palestinians shows that they tend to act when their personal security is undermined, especially among the settlers due to increased Palestinian terror, and over concern that settlements might be evacuated in the framework of the diplomatic process.
At the height of the second intifada, between 2001 and 2002, for example, a Jewish terror unit was active, and allegedly murdered seven Palestinians. The Shin Bet has claimed for years that it knows the identity of the murderers, but they were unable to collect enough evidence against them that could lead to an indictment. The extreme right was also particularly violent during the second round of Oslo agreements, Camp David and the disengagement.
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