These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip during December 11-16, 2007. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. This poll release covers Palestinian domestic issues. A separate joint Palestinian-Israeli press release will cover issues related to the peace process and Israeli-Palestinian relations. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.
Main Findings:
Findings show that Hamas’s popularity has now stabilized despite the fact that public evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip has become bleaker than it was three months ago. Similarly, Fateh’s popularity remains stable compared to September 2007 despite a significant increase in the feelings of security and safety in the West Bank. The stabilization of Hamas’s popularity reflects an almost total lack of confidence in the peace process unleashed by Annapolis meeting.
The following are the main findings regarding the domestic conditions. Findings regarding the peace process will be released separately as part of a joint Palestinian-Israeli press release.
· If new legislative elections are held today, Hamas would receive 31% of the vote and Fateh 49%. These are almost identical to those obtained last September. All other factions combined receive 10% and 11% remain undecided. A combination of Hamas and undecided would still give Fateh an advantage of 7 percentage points, the same advantage it had three months ago. In the January 2006 elections, it is believed that all the undecided voted for Hamas.
· Satisfaction with the performance of Mahmud Abbas reaches 50% compared to 45% last September and 36% last June. If new elections are held today and the two candidates were Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, Abbas would receive 56% of the vote and Haniyeh 37%. Last September, Abbas received 59% and Haniyeh 36%. But if the presidential elections were a contest between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti would receive 63% and Haniyeh 32%. These results are identical to those found in our September 2007 poll.
· 42% say they agree that Haniyeh should stay as prime minister in the Gaza Strip while 52% say they do not agree with that. On the other hand, 51% say they agree that Salam Fayyad should stay as prime minister while 40% disagree with that. These results are similar to those obtained last September. In a contest over legitimacy, 27% say that Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one while 37% say Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one. 11% say the two are legitimate and 21% say the two are illegitimate.
· Almost three quarters (74%) say they oppose the Hamas military take over of the Gaza Strip and 21% say they support it. These results are identical to those obtained last September.
· Trust in Hamas’s and Haniyeh’s media, such as al Aqsa TV, does not exceed 19% while trust in Fateh’s and Fayyad’s media, such as Palestine TV, does not exceed 24%. Almost half (46%) do not trust the media in either side. These results are similar to those obtained last September.
· 41% believe and 47% do not believe that Hamas plans to take over the West Bank in the same way it took over the Gaza Strip.
· Only 8% describe conditions in the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 85% describe them as bad or very bad. On the other hand, 31% describe conditions in the West Bank as good or very good and 41% describe them as bad or very bad. Percentage of those who described conditions in the Gaza Strip as bad or very bad stood at 80% last September.
· Positive evaluation of Gaza’s economic conditions stands at 5% compared to 47% of positive evaluation for West Bank’s conditions. Positive evaluation of the status of Gaza’s law and order stands at 35% compared to 54% of positive evaluation for West Banks law and order conditions. Moreover, only 28% give a positive evaluation of the status of Gaza’s press freedom compared to 51% for West Bank’s press freedoms. Finally, positive evaluation of Gaza’s democracy and human rights does not exceed 28% compared to 42% to same conditions in the West Bank.
· Despite the negative evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip, a majority of 52% of Gazans say that they and their families feel safe and secure in their homes. On the other hand, 44% of the West Bankers say they and their families feel safe and secure in their homes. These results indicate an increase in feelings of safety and security in both areas compared to the situation last September. But the increase is more significant in the West Bank as only 35% said last September that they feel safe and secure.
· 27% say that current conditions force them to seek immigration abroad; in the Gaza Strip, the percentage stands at 32% and in the West Bank at 25%.
· About two thirds (65%) believe that chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are slim or non existent while 32% say the chances are medium or high. In June 2007, 26% believed that the chances are medium or high and 70% said the chances are slim or non existent.
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