Israeli and Palestinian negotiators face intense diplomatic activity this week in an attempt to bridge differences ahead of a US-sponsored peace meeting intended to bring an end to six decades of conflict.
In an early reminder of the obstacles in their way, the two sides are struggling to draft a joint statement that would form the basis for the meeting at Annapolis and for later talks.
The current efforts mark the first serious bilateral attempt in seven years to find a path that would lead to the creation of an independent Palestinian state living in peace with Israel. But the negotiators are facing broad concerns that Israeli and Palestinian leaders are too weak to make substantial concessions right now – let alone implement an agreement that would face stiff opposition from political rivals.
No formal date has yet been set for the peace meeting in Annapolis, Maryland, but senior Israeli officials and western diplomats believe it will take place next week. However, they are also at pains to damp down expectations that the gathering itself will lead to a breakthrough.
“We are trying to get away from the idea that Annapolis is the culmination of something. It is much less important than the day after Annapolis,” one senior Israeli official involved in the negotiations says.
At best, Israeli officials hope the meeting will lead to the launch of more detailed talks on core issues such as the borders of a Palestinian state, the status of Jerusalem and the right of return for Palestinian refugees.
Both parties admit there has been no progress on these issues so far – much to the frustration of the Palestinian side, which wants the joint statement ahead of Annapolis to be as concrete and detailed as possible.
Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, has also pressed the Israeli government to show its commitment to the talks by releasing Palestinian prisoners, freezing new settlement construction in the West Bank and dismantling roadblocks and checkpoints.
Keen to shore up Palestinian support for Mr Abbas ahead of the meeting, Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, is expected to announce a package of measures addressing these concerns as early as Monday. However, a tentative plan to free several hundred Palestinians will fall short of Mr Abbas’s demand for the release of 2,000 prisoners.
In any case, many senior Israeli officials believe that – no matter what Mr Olmert does to help his Palestinian counterpart – Mr Abbas is too weak to deliver a comprehensive peace agreement at this stage.
They are especially concerned that the president will be unable to crack down on Palestinian militants who continue to launch attacks on Israel.
Israeli government officials insist implementation of a final status agreement would have to be put on hold until the country’s security concerns were met.
“Let’s assume we have an agreement with them – it would be worthless,” says a senior Israeli official. “Even if we reach an agreement it is not practical. We will put it on the shelf and wait for a miracle to happen.”
Mr Abbas’s government has control only in the West Bank, while Gaza, the other half of a future Palestinian state, is ruled by Hamas. Israeli officials are convinced that a failure at Annapolis – or a breakdown of subsequent negotiations – would strengthen the Islamist group, which remains fiercely opposed to the peace talks.
Mr Olmert also faces strong domestic opposition to the Annapolis talks, including from within his shaky coalition government. Polls show he remains deeply unpopular, further reducing his margin for manoeuvre. As a result, Palestinians fear the premier will be unable to make the difficult concessions re-quired for any agreement.
At the same time US pressure on both sides to secure an agreement is intensifying – and is, say Israeli officials, likely to keep talks on track at least for the time being. The Bush administration is seeking both to rally Arab support as tensions with Iran rise and to at least part-deliver on President George W. Bush’s promise of a Palestinian state.
“No one can afford failure here,” Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, said of the Annapolis meeting recently. “It’s going to happen ... I’ve said failure isn’t an option.”
Front Page Features