One month before President Bush’s Mideast peace conference — the administration’s first serious effort in six years — it’s still not clear what will be on the agenda or who, beyond the Americans, Israelis and Palestinians, will show up. Even the date is still up in the air.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is in the region through early next week for what we hope will be more than just another one of her listening tours. If the conference has any chance of success, she needs to be carrying with her creative proposals, a willingness to twist everyone’s arms and the stamina to keep at it for as long as it takes.
The issue is less how peace would look than whether leaders — including Mr. Bush — have the political courage to make decisions and finally move forward.
The broad outlines of a deal for Israel and the new state of Palestine have been apparent since President Clinton’s 2000 push. The two states would be separated by a line approximating Israel’s pre-1967 war border, with small land swaps to permit most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be part of Israel. There would be some kind of agreed resolution of the Palestinian refugees issue, while the two sides would find a way to split control of Jerusalem. A guarantee to use the full resources of the Palestinian Authority to help protect Israel from future terrorist attacks is also essential.
Nobody expects Israel’s prime minister, Ehud Olmert, and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, both weak leaders, to come to an agreement at this meeting. At a minimum, however, they must launch a serious negotiating process that would point clearly — preferably with a target date — to the end of the conflict and to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
If that happens, then the really hard work starts. The United States would have to be at the bargaining table every step of the way to provide Mr. Olmert with support and political cover to make the tough compromises that could well bring down his government. Leading Arab states would also have to be intensely engaged to bolster and give cover to Mr. Abbas, who faces serious opposition both from Hamas militants and from within his own Fatah party. The Israelis need the Saudis finally at the table, as proof that compromise would also bring regional acceptance. The Saudis aren’t known for their political courage, but even the Egyptians are insisting that they won’t invest political capital unless they are sure there’s something to invest in.
After years of broken promises and bloodshed, Israelis and Palestinians must also agree on concrete steps that would show their people that life is changing for the better — now. These should include a Palestinian commitment to hunt down violent anti-Israel militants and a halt to Israeli settlements. Laudably, Mr. Bush recently proposed a sixfold increase in aid to the Palestinians, whose government desperately needs the funds to prove that it is a viable alternative to Hamas. The Bush administration is as notoriously weak on follow-through as it is on planning. But it cannot just stage an event and hope that something will materialize. Another failed photo op would just sow more despair and anger in a region already drowning in both.
Front Page Features