September 15, 2008

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Monday said he was sorry for the plight of Palestinians and Jews who became refugees as a result of Israel's establishment.

"I join in expressing sorrow for what happened to the Palestinians and also for what happened to the Jews who were expelled from Arab states," the prime minister said.

Olmert made the comments before a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, apparently in his last such session as prime minister. He was speaking in reference to the key Palestinian demand for a "right of return" in peace negotiations with Israel.

"Under absolutely no circumstances will there be a right of return," Olmert declared, "but we are prepared to be part of an international mechanism that will work to solve the problem."

Palestinians have demanded that Israel accept responsibility for the suffering of Palestinians who fled or were driven from their homes in the War of Independence that followed Israel's 1948 creation.

Olmert's remark Monday fell far short of meeting this demand. But it was unusual for an Israeli prime minister to say Israel will participate in expressing sorrow for what happened to them.

The premier also said that a peace deal with the Palestinian Authority will involve proportionate land swaps between the two sides.

"The territorial price of peace with the Palestinians will bring us very close to the land-for-land formula. This needs to be said forthrightly and with courage. There are different ways of reaching this formula through annexing or exchanging territories," Olmert said.

The Israeli and Palestinian leaders have agreed to hold what could be their last meeting before Prime Minister Ehud Olmert leaves office.
Officials from both sides say Olmert and Abbas plan to hold their talks in Jerusalem on Tuesday night.

The summit comes on the eve of elections for Olmert's Kadima party. Olmert is expected to resign soon after the vote. Although he will remain in office for a brief caretaker period, it is unclear whether he will continue with peace talks during that time.

Since last year, Olmert and Abbas have been meeting on a regular basis to try to reach a final peace agreement between the two sides. Olmert said Monday that he believes it's still possible to work out a deal before the end of the year.

An Israeli soldier was sentenced to 14 days in prison for his role in an incident in which a Palestinian delivered a stillborn baby after being forced to wait at a checkpoint inside the Occupied West Bank, the Israeli Army said Friday. "The incident is one that could have been prevented," the Israeli military said, adding that the squad commander who was in charge of the checkpoint at the time was removed from his position and sentenced to 14 days in jail.

Nahil Abu Raja was heading from her village to hospital in Nablus with her relatives earlier this month when she was held up at an Israeli checkpoint outside the Occupied West Bank city while she was in labor.

"The soldiers at the checkpoint did not allow the vehicle to enter Nablus via the checkpoint as they did not possess a vehicular entrance permit," the army said in a statement.

An ambulance called by the family arrived about 30 minutes later, but Raja "gave birth to a premature still-born baby and was evacuated by the ambulance to the hospital in Nablus for further treatment," the army said.

Between 2000 and 2006, at least 68 Palestinian women gave birth at Israeli checkpoints, including 35 who miscarried and five who died in childbirth, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.

Hundreds of checkpoints and other Israeli barriers truncate the Occupied West Bank, severely restricting the movement of people and trade inside the Palestinian territory.

Israeli police are investigating a rampage by settlers in a Palestinian village in the West Bank on Saturday which PM Ehud Olmert called a "pogrom".

Mr Olmert, who is about to step down, called the attack by about 100 settlers on Asira al-Qabaliya "intolerable".

It was filmed by human rights groups and came after an intruder stabbed and wounded a child at Yitzhar settlement.

But police have not arrested any of the settlers who were filmed. Four people suffered gunshot wounds in the attack.

Police have reportedly approached human rights group B'Tselem asking for the home video footage capturing Yitzhar settlers attacking the village with live bullets and stones.

In the footage, Israeli soldiers are present at the scene but do not take any action to prevent the violence and destruction of Palestinian property.

Mr Olmert said at what could be his last cabinet meeting: "This phenomenon of taking the law into their own hands and of brutal and violent attacks is intolerable... There will be no pogroms against non-Jewish residents."

A committee of pro-settlement rabbis praised the "courage and heroism" of the Yitzhar settlers, saying their reaction was in accordance with Jewish law, the Haaretz newspaper reported.

The once-hawkish Mr Olmert also spoke of Israel giving up parts of the West Bank to reach a peace deal with the Palestinians.

"The idea of a 'Greater Israel' is over. There is no such thing. Whoever says so is just misleading himself," Mr Olmert said, according to officials at the meeting.

The meeting discussed a plan to pay Israelis to leave settlements in the West Bank that are on the east side of the barrier Israel is building in and around the territory.

On Monday, Mr Olmert told a parliamentary committee that every day that passed without a peace agreement with the Palestinians was a day that Israelis may come to regret.

Mr Olmert said there would be painful consequences if the opportunity to reach a deal soon was missed.

The prime minister faces possible criminal charges in corruption investigations and, although he denies wrongdoing, he has promised to resign after his Kadima party holds an election to replace him.

Wednesday's leadership vote could be followed by protracted talks to form a new government, and Mr Olmert may stay on as caretaker premier.

About 450,000 Jews live in the West Bank and East Jerusalem in settlements considered illegal under international law, although Israel disputes this.

Israel’s border crossings with the Gaza Strip were sealed on Monday, following a rocket attack by Palestinian fighters.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak ordered the indefinite closure of the crossings after the attack.

The rocket, which was fired into the Israeli town of Sderot, started a fire but did not cause any casualties.

Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas is to hold talks with US President George W. Bush at the White House on September 25, a day earlier than initially announced, Palestinian officials said on Monday.

"The meeting will be held on September 25," Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat told AFP.

Before traveling to Washington, Abbas is to attend the opening session of the UN General Assembly.

Abbas and Bush will "evaluate the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation process and discuss the obstacles that prevent reaching an accord," Erakat said.

Erakat accused Israel of failing to abide by its commitments in the peace talks, including its agreement to freeze settlement activity in the occupied West Bank.

Continued construction in the Israeli settlements is seen as one of the major hurdles in attempts to reach a peace agreement.

Peace efforts were relaunched with great fanfare at a US-hosted conference in November with the stated goal of reaching an agreement by the end of this year but have made little tangible progress.

A Palestinian youth was killed on Saturday in a clash with Israeli soldiers in the West Bank village of Tekoa, near Bethlehem, Palestinian and Israeli officials said.

Earlier in the day, armed Jewish settlers attacked a Palestinian village in the northern West Bank after a Palestinian intruder stabbed and lightly wounded an Israeli boy, 9, in an illegal Jewish outpost in the area, Israeli officials said.

At least four Palestinians were wounded in that confrontation, some by live fire, according to Israeli and Palestinian officials.

Unrest has simmered for days in the West Bank with a string of confrontations involving settlers, Palestinians and the Israeli security forces there.

A Palestinian staff member at a hospital near Bethlehem said the youth who died had been shot in the chest. The independent Palestinian news agency Maan said he was 16. An Israeli Army spokesman said a soldier had fired a single round to disperse a demonstration and that a Palestinian was hit and later died.

The army was investigating, the spokesman said, adding that the soldiers entered Tekoa after two American tourists were lightly wounded when stones were thrown at their bus.

About 7:30 a.m. Saturday, a Palestinian entered the settlement outpost of Shalhevet in the northern West Bank and set fire to an empty house there, the Israeli Army spokesman said. The intruder, who later fled, stabbed the boy after the boy saw him and shouted, the spokesman said.

Shalhevet lies a few hundred yards from its parent settlement of Yitzhar, south of Nablus. Scores of settlers from Yitzhar gathered at the nearby Palestinian village of Asira al Qibliya and some opened fire. A local village council member told the Israeli Web site Ynet that a number of the village’s houses and cars had been damaged in what was described as a reprisal raid, which lasted for hours.

Israeli Army soldiers were at the scene, but the army says it does not have the authority to act against Israeli civilians. It was unclear what actions the army took. But according to Army Radio, Israeli forces later confiscated the weapons of two of the settlers who took part.

On Wednesday about 20 settlers threw stones at residents of Asira al Qibliya, and the Palestinians threw stones back. Military officials said Israeli soldiers had fired into the air and at the legs of the Palestinian demonstrators to try to restore order.

The same day, settlers clashed with Israeli soldiers and military officials who came to another Jewish outpost near Ramallah to confiscate equipment used for illegal construction.

That night, the military said, dozens of settlers gathered at an army base near yet another outpost west of Ramallah and damaged the water supply.

Israel's government had its first discussion Sunday of a plan to offer West Bank settlers cash to leave their homes, a largely symbolic step taken as the prime minister approaches the premature end of his term.

The plan would pave the way for a large-scale pullback after a peace agreement with the Palestinians. But both sides say such a peace accord, or even a partial agreement, are far from completion.

Israel is pushing for adjustments in the line between the West Bank and Israel, allowing it to keep main settlement blocs where most of the nearly 300,000 Jewish settlers live and offering to trade Israeli land for the blocs. The Palestinians have not accepted the idea.

Yishai Hollander, spokesman for an umbrella group representing settlers, called the evacuation plan "unrealistic" and said most settlers wouldn't take it seriously.

The politician behind the offer to compensate settlers, Vice Premier Haim Ramon, believes only about 62,000 would have to move from 72 locations deep in the West Bank that would be turned over to the Palestinians as part of their state.

Ramon said surveys show about 11,000 would initially agree to take the money and leave, and more would follow.

However, bitter confrontations between soldiers and just 8,000 settlers when Israel evacuated the Gaza Strip in 2005, and continuing hardships faced by the settlers, cast a long shadow on the larger-scale evacuation plans for the West Bank.

Also, many of the West Bank settlements that would be removed are home to the most extreme religious and nationalistic elements among the settlers, including many who do not accept the right of the Israeli government to order their removal.

For now, at least, the plan is theoretical because of lack of apparent progress in peace negotiations that were restarted with great fanfare last November, when a target date of January 2009 was set for an agreement.

The average payment under the plan would be $300,000 to every family that leaves the West Bank, with bonuses for moving away from the heavily populated center of the country.

The plan would apply to areas east of the separation barrier Israel is building along the West Bank. Israel initially claimed that the barrier was a security measure that had no political significance, but Ramon said Sunday the barrier marked Israel's future border.

"Everyone dealing with the negotiations knows that everything east of the fence will not be under Israeli sovereignty," he said in a briefing for reporters. "We are fighting to keep everything west of the fence under Israeli sovereignty."

Palestinians charge that the route of the barrier is an Israeli land grab in the West Bank, cutting many Palestinians off from their fields and services.

Ramon said he hoped to turn his plan into legislation within weeks and present it to the government. But Israel's political system is headed for a period of turbulence.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Ramon's Kadima Party is set to elect a new leader, after which Olmert _ who has been plagued by corruption allegations _ says he will step down. If Olmert's replacement cannot put together a new coalition government, Israel will hold elections.

Both of the leading candidates to replace Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, have said they oppose Ramon's idea because it compromises negotiations with the Palestinians by giving up too much too early.

Although the Cabinet took no action on the proposal, Olmert said it marked an important step in preparing the nation to withdraw from occupied land. Olmert took a shot at the West Bank settler movement during the Cabinet meeting, ridiculing those who think Israel can hold on to all of the territory in the long run.

Over the past two decades of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, deadlines for peace agreements have come and gone with precious few treaties.

Now, amid low expectations for an agreement before the expiration of the Bush administration's target for an accord by the end of 2008, voices are growing on both sides advocating abandoning talks on Palestinian statehood if they miss the mark yet again.

"We certainly need to think outside the box," says Hanan Ashrawi, a Palestinian legislator and longtime supporter of peace talks. "The business-as-usual approach hasn't worked."

Advocating a single binational state of Jews and Arabs is the alternative strategy most often mentioned as gaining cachet among Palestinians, though even backers of that goal concede that it is more of an ideal than a realistic goal. Other alternatives that some Palestinians are mulling include dismantling the Palestinian government, an international trusteeship, and returning to popular uprising to achieve an independent state.

Adds Ms. Ashrawi, "There are many ideas, but there is no consensus. The consensus is that we are reaching the end of our rope. The two-state solution is receding, and we are in crisis."

Nearly a year ago at a summit in Annapolis, Md., President Bush called for a push to reach a deal by the end of his term. If that deadline passes, it is unclear if the fledgling successor to the Bush administration will dive back into talks when chances for success seem slim. Palestinian and Israeli leaders are both weak right now, making it difficult for either side to push for an agreement.

Both sides have acknowledged recently that negotiators aren't close to a peace agreement, despite 10 months of talks. Israeli Vice Premier Haim Ramon said Sunday that even a declaration of principles on a peace treaty isn't in sight. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper, that "the gap between the sides is very large."

Calls for a new strategy are more urgent on the Palestinian side, where a collapse of the talks would be a blow to the standing of Mr. Abbas, a standard bearer for choosing negotiations over force, as he vies for legitimacy against the Islamic militants from Hamas who control the Gaza Strip.

There is also fear that a breakdown in the negotiations will leave a vacuum for a new Palestinian uprising in the same way that the failed Israeli-Palestinian peace talks in July 2000 gave way within two months to several years of daily violence.

Palestinians warn of a tipping point in the not so distant future when establishing a sustainable, sovereign Palestinian state will be rendered impossible, as Jewish settlements expand and Israel's security barrier continues to cut a cookie-cutter-like path through the West Bank.

"There is an urgent need for Palestinians to get together and say, 'What is going on with our national project?' " says Bashir Bashir, a Palestinian citizen of Israel who helped draft a 52-page assessment of strategic options beyond the negotiations for a forum of 27 influential leaders and intellectuals calling themselves the Palestine Strategy Study Group, formed this year.

Mr. Bashir concedes that, though he supports the creation of a single state of Arabs and Jews, it is unclear how such an entity can be created, given the opposition of Israeli Jews and the reluctance of many Palestinian leaders. A binational state was the prevailing choice of Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Liberation Organization until 1988. While a growing number of Palestinian intellectuals embrace the idea of a binational state, it remains a minority position.

"Talk about one state is a nice message, but its impossible. We will kill them, and they will kill us," says Ron Pundak, the director of the Peres Center for Peace in Tel Aviv and an architect of the 1993 Israeli-Palestinian Declaration of Principles reached in Oslo.

Many Israelis fear that as Arabs in the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel reach demographic parity with Jews, demands for one state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea will grow more compelling. US and Israeli officials have warned that the window of opportunity for the two-state solution might be closing.

There is also talk among Palestinians of a unilateral declaration of statehood in the spirit of Kosovo's secession from Serbia this year. (On the eve of a deadline for an agreement in 1999, Palestinian leaders threatened a similar move but ultimately didn't follow through.)

Some right-wing critics have called for Egypt and Jordan to reassert authority in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, respectively, which they controlled until the 1967 Arab-Israeli War.

Israeli critics of the current negotiations question the value of holding peace talks with a government whose legitimacy is challenged by many Palestinians.

Instead of widening the rift between Abbas and Hamas by pushing peace talks that divides the Palestinians into "moderate" peace partners and "extremist" enemies, Israel should encourage Palestinian reconciliation, says Shlomo Brom, a former Israeli general and currently a fellow at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv.

"As long as there is no agreement between Hamas and Fatah, at least on the rules of the game of running the Palestinian Authority, there is no chance of reach an agreement or implementing an agreement," he says. "Israel needs a new paradigm."

A new security reality has been developing in the West Bank in recent months, one that has been virtually ignored by the Israeli press. The chaos that once reigned in the West Bank's cities, villages and refugee camps has vanished, replaced by newly invigorated Palestinian security forces. In the 14 months since Hamas' takeover of the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Authority has managed to revive a concept almost unknown to residents of the territories in recent years: law and order.

Critics who claim that law enforcement in the West Bank is only partial are right. The holy trinity of arrest, trial and punishment as known in the West is indeed not always adhered to. Still, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and veteran interior minister Abdul Razzaq al-Yahia may present several significant achievements at their next meeting with their American and Israeli counterparts.

Armed militias are no longer part of the landscape of West Bank cities, not only because they fear the Israel Defense Forces or the Shin Bet security service, but also for fear of being arrested by PA security. The Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades have been all but disbanded, and most of their members have joined the PA security apparatus. Palestinian police have declared war on unauthorized market stalls and stolen cars, long mainstays in cities such as Nablus, Jenin and Hebron.
Perhaps most impressive is the war on the Hamas and Islamic Jihad-run charities collectively known as the "Dawa." Shin Bet officials estimate that PA security has shut down or taken control of 45 such organizations. Last week, Palestinian police broke into mosques in the Hebron area and confiscated propaganda material distributed by Hamas. Printing facilities used by Islamist groups were closed, and their schools and hospitals are now being run under the PA's watchful eye.

These actions have won the praise even of the Israeli security establishment, who long viewed the Palestinian security services with disdain. For years, Shin Bet head Yuval Diskin, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and other senior officials made statements to the effect that if the IDF were to withdraw completely from the West Bank, Hamas would gain control within 72 hours.

Such statements seem no longer to be valid. Hamas' military apparatus in the territories still exists, but it no longer presents an immediate threat to PA institutions. Israel and the PA have begun cooperating again on security matters, even if both sides tend to play down that cooperation publicly. The Hamas-run shopping center in Nablus, closed two months ago by the IDF, was recently re-opened with Israeli approval after the PA ousted its management in favor of its own people.

Meanwhile, Palestinian security has thwarted several suicide bombing attempts in recent months, confiscated hundreds of weapons and significant amounts of explosive materials. One major flaw in their operation remains, however, and has turned into a symbol of PA security itself: the "revolving door." Although dozens if not hundreds of Hamas and Islamic Jihad members are currently being held in PA prisons, most are released within several days, much as they were in the late 1990s and during the second intifada. The PA has yet to formulate a convincing explanation for this, and its image problem is likely to persist until it does.

Nonetheless, the perennial "non-partner" has become a partner. The Palestinian Authority is relevant, at least regarding a future agreement in the West Bank. Abbas, long viewed as a toothless leader, is slowly emerging as a force for stable, reliable and incorruptible leadership, even compared with Israel's decision makers. Nowadays, an Israeli partner is harder to find - some are busy with police interrogations, others with primaries.

The media's failure to highlight the change is nothing less than astonishing. It could be that the Palestinian issue no longer interests the general public, that the greater strategic threat posed by Iran is pushing it off the public agenda. Should another wave of violence surge from the West Bank, however, the Palestinian issue is likely to float to the surface once more and again take a starring role in the various media outlets. But until then, who really cares?

Having just spent a week visiting Israelis and Palestinians, I find it hard not to be struck by the sense that everything is in limbo. Even as they continue to negotiate, Israelis and Palestinians are, for the most part, biding their time as they wait to see what the political transition in Israel and in the United States will produce. But there is a looming issue that I found to be worrying Palestinians and Israelis alike: What happens in January when Mahmoud Abbas's term as president of the Palestinian Authority expires?

At present, elections for the presidency are not scheduled to take place until a year from January, leaving either a potential legitimacy gap should Abbas stay in office or a leadership vacuum should he depart. With Hamas in control of Gaza, Abbas issued a decree some time ago to hold the presidential elections simultaneously with the legislative council elections in January 2010 -- effectively postponing the presidential elections, presumably in the hope that something might change in Gaza in the interim.

Hamas, however, is trying to take advantage of the gap between the expiration of Abbas's term and the scheduled date for the elections. Hamas leaders have already begun to declare that Abbas will have no legitimacy after his term ends. This is probably less a legal problem than a political one. But it may not be only about Abbas's legitimacy. According to the Palestinian constitution, when the president's office is vacated, the speaker of the legislative council becomes the acting president. Today that would be Abdel Aziz Dweik, a Hamas member who sits in an Israeli jail, or his deputy, Ahmad Bahar, who is also a Hamas member and is in Gaza.

Even if Hamas chooses not to declare that the office is vacant, there is the danger that Abbas, at least in part because his legitimacy is being challenged, could decide to leave in January when his term ends. He has, after all, periodically threatened to do so. Rather than waiting to see whether a leadership crisis materializes (or worse, the office becomes vacant), why not work out a strategy for dealing with this issue with Abbas now?

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's focus has been elsewhere. She remains determined to try to produce an agreement between the Israelis and Palestinians on the permanent-status issues of Jerusalem, refugees, security and borders. While that might be desirable, it is simply not in the cards. As one senior Israeli official said to me, "There are only two people in the world today who think that a deal is possible now: Ehud Olmert and Condi Rice." With Olmert's days numbered, the Israeli government is not embracing his negotiating initiatives, and the Palestinians see little reason to make concessions to someone who is unlikely to be able to deliver his side of the bargain. Given that, Rice would be well advised to direct her attention elsewhere -- and the problem looming in January would be a good place to start.

With Arab leaders (and Abbas) all likely to be in New York for U.N. General Assembly meetings later this month, Rice will have a perfect setting to work out a strategy for dealing with the Abbas problem. She should identify the options in advance, line up Arab support for Abbas staying in office -- something that should not be hard to do since Arab leaders are likely to fear both a Palestinian leadership void and the prospect of Hamas filling that void -- and then finalize the approach with Abbas.

At least two options could be pursued. First, have the Arab leaders and the Quartet members (the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and the Russians) endorse the Abbas decree on holding the presidential and legislative council elections simultaneously, provided he commits to staying in office until the elections are held. This could both give him cover and a reason for staying in office.

Or, alternatively, try to seize the high ground and put Hamas on the defensive by having Abbas (with a public endorsement from Arab leaders and the Quartet) call for presidential elections to be held as soon as security conditions in Gaza permit. Those conditions would require at least some Palestinian Authority security presence, along with international observers to be in place to set rules, balloting locations and monitoring provisions to ensure the elections are free and fair and conducted without Hamas intimidation.

In such circumstances, Hamas would either have to allow some Palestinian Authority and observer presence for the elections or block it and lose any claims of legitimacy for itself or its charges against Abbas. For Abbas, legitimacy will be essential if he is to preside over negotiations that ultimately require compromise on the core issues of the conflict.

Regardless of the option taken, the administration needs to address the emerging problem. Lagging behind events has unfortunately been a hallmark of the Bush administration. If the administration is serious about trying to pass on to its successor an ongoing peace process, it had better focus not only on preserving the negotiating process but also making sure a Palestinian leadership crisis does not arrive just as our next president assumes office. This is one problem the Bush administration can and should preempt before it is too late.

Perhaps it was the daytime fast and abstention from smoking during the holy month of Ramadan, and perhaps it was the conversation about the exhausting negotiations with Israel that caused Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) to press the white button at least three times in the course of last Wednesday's interview.

Sa'id, his personal assistant, enters without a word, pulls out the packet and lights a cigarette for the president. Abu Mazen's relaxed mood does not hint at all the troubles bombarding him from inside and out.

He dismisses the threats of colleagues, including the chairman of the Palestinian negotiation team Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala) and rivals such as Prof. Sari Nusseibeh, to replace the negotiations over two states with a demand for equal rights between Israelis and Palestinians in one state. He also promises that, just as he opposed the second intifada, he will not support a third one.
The message is almost self-evident: Don't miss your opportunity with me. You won't have a partner like me. But on one point he is insistent: the right of return. Israel will have to absorb refugees in its territory, he emphasizes, following negotiations regarding their numbers.

He is aware of the arguments in Israel about his political weakness. "It's a good excuse for Israel not to fulfill its obligations," he says with a bitter smile. "I'm still reading in your newspaper that it won't be possible to reach a peace agreement because your prime minister, Ehud Olmert, is accused of corruption and I'm too weak. But even senior Israeli officials now admit that we are doing an excellent job."

Even Amos Gilad, the head of the diplomatic-security headquarters in the Defense Ministry, and a sharp critic of the PA?

"Even Amos Gilad. We have restored order to the West Bank cities, we are taking steps against anyone who tries to undermine security and stability, whether it is Hamas, Islamic Jihad or even Fatah. In Israel and in the United States they are well aware that the Palestinian security forces have prevented many attacks. We even dismantled Fatah's Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades. Today there is one armed force and one authority in the field."

Abbas' situation in public opinion surveys conducted in the territories is better than ever. The chaos that reigned in the cities of the West Bank has been replaced by the Palestinian police. The security systems are garnering praise from those very senior Israeli officials who in the past leveled penetrating criticism against their functioning - including the head of the Shin Bet security service, the defense minister and generals in the Israel Defense Forces. The economic situation in the West Bank is also improving. And nevertheless, Abu Mazen knows that without a diplomatic agreement, all these achievements will evaporate and the Palestinians will return to Hamas' embrace.

Do you remember that Saturday, September 13, is the anniversary of the Oslo Accords?

"Unfortunately."

Why unfortunately?

"Because it didn't succeed. Fifteen years have passed since then, and we are still far from an agreement."

Olmert is about to resign. What do you feel on the personal level?

"I admire him very much and for over a year we've been working together. Now he is about to leave and we will honor what the Israeli public decides. We will conduct negotiations with any prime minister elected in Israel, and bid farewell to Olmert. But I intend to conduct negotiations with him until his last moment in the job."

It is evident that the elections for the leadership of Kadima are a source of great concern to those sitting in the Muqata, the PA's seat of government, in Ramallah. Abu Mazen's advisors are busy not only with issues related to Hamas and Fatah, but also with the attempt to guess who will win: Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz or Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. On this subject, as on others, MK Ahmed Tibi (Ra'am-Ta'al), who was present at the interview, serves as a guide for the PA president. In addition, Abbas makes sure to keep abreast of reports from the Israeli media.

Olmert said that we have never been so close to an agreement. Had he remained in the job would that have changed anything?

"I cannot say that 'an agreement is near' or 'not near' is the correct term to use, but it is doubtful whether we could have completed an agreement by the end of 2008 [as the sides promised at the Annapolis conference], even had he remained in the job. So far there has been no achievement in the negotiations. There are various proposals regarding borders and the refugee issue, but they have remained proposals only and all six central issues of the final status agreement [Jerusalem, borders, refugees, security, settlements and water] have remained open. I cannot say that there has been an agreement on a single issue. The gap between the sides is very large. We presented our ideas and demands regarding the six issues, and have yet to receive any answer from the Israeli side."

Jordan's King Abdullah said recently to a French newspaper that he is not convinced that Israel wants to solve the conflict, due to the absence of a long-term vision. Do you agree with that statement?

"I tend to agree with King Abdullah. We can reach an agreement because the outline is known, and it is not clear to me why there is no progress. Perhaps because of internal political disputes in Israel. I can say that the Americans continue to play a central role, and are even eager for us to reach an agreement by the end of the year. They are convinced we are capable of that."

We have heard many different versions about the percentage of the area of the West Bank Israel is willing to transfer to the Palestinian state. Could you tell us the exact percentage?

Abu Mazen smiles. "We have been presented with more than one proposal. I can tell you that, among other things, we raised the demand to conduct negotiations over no-man's land and not only over the entire West Bank." [One example is the Latrun area.]

Have you told the Israelis that they have to refer to previous documents, to previous negotiations like those conducted in Taba in 2001?

"Israel now claims that those talks were conducted by other teams. 'It's not us. It's Yossi Beilin,' they say."

Abbas looks very excited when he mentions the 2002 Arab peace initiative, in which 22 Arab countries agreed to normalize relations with Israel if Israel withdraws to the 1967 boundaries. He asks his secretary of many years, Intisar, to bring the version of the Arab initiative adopted by the Islamic summit conference. The paper is decorated with the flags of various Islamic countries, including Iran.

"Yes, yes, even Iran agreed at the time [2002 - before Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's era] to the principles of the Arab initiative, and never regretted it," he says. "I presented this paper to Olmert, who didn't react to it. Unfortunately, to date there has been no discussion of the initiative in the Israeli government. You should remember that this is the first time even the king of Saudi Arabia, who is the guardian of the places holy to Islam, enlisted for the sake of solving the conflict."

Is it clear that on the issue of the right of return, the refugees will return only to the areas of the Palestinian state?

"Not at all. This issue is not at all clear. There are today five million Palestinian refugees whose forefathers were expelled from the area of Israel, not from the West Bank and Gaza. We understand that if we demand of you that all five million return to Israel, the State of Israel would be destroyed. But we must talk about compromise and see to what numbers you can agree.

"We have to talk about Israeli recognition of its responsibility for the refugee problem, and then discuss the right of return in practice. The Palestinians who don't return to Israel can return to Palestine. If they decide to remain in the countries where they are living, they will receive compensation, as will the countries that absorb them. There is a central issue that Israel tends to ignore: the assets of the absentees. That is a very important issue, almost the basis of the problem.

"We intend to hold talks with Israel about the number of refugees who will return to its area. I am criticized for not demanding the return of all five million, but I say that we will demand the return of a reasonable number of refugees to Israel. The Arab peace initiative also discusses that - a solution to the refugee problem has to be agreed upon with Israel, according to UN General Assembly resolution 194 [from 1948]."

Foreign Minister Livni said that when the Palestinians erase the word "nakba" from their lexicon [the "catastrophe," the expulsion and flight of the Palestinians in 1947-1948], there will be peace.

"Can I forget the nakba, which happened to so many people and even to me? [Abbas is a refugee from Safed.] That is our memory. Just as I can't ask you to forget your national memory, you can't demand that of me."

President Shimon Peres claims you said that you would oppose the participation of Hamas in the January 2010 elections, if it does not recognize agreements with Israel and international decisions.

"Let's put it differently. If we want to establish a unity government of professionals, according to the Arab League's proposal, it must honor all the commitments and agreements that we have signed, like the road map. We cannot agree to any initiative that does not accept that. And of course, you have to accept the Arab peace initiative."

When does your term end? Hamas claims in January 2009 and not in January 2010, as you claim.

"I think that the elections for parliament and the presidency should take place together, in January 2010. We will decide, and issue a presidential order accordingly. And we will definitely demand that the elections be held in Jerusalem as well."

Will you run in the next elections?

"I don't know yet. It's too early to talk about that."

Was it a mistake to allow Hamas to participate in the 2006 elections?

"No, it was a good test as far as we're concerned. Had we rejected its participation we would have rejected a large part of the Palestinian people. Now, after the nation has come to know and experience Hamas, it will have to decide who to vote for."

Do you see a possibility of reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, and unity between the West Bank and Gaza?

"Gaza and the West Bank must unite, otherwise there will be no Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. But we will not use force to do that. There are contacts for reconciliation being conducted by the Egyptians, and in the end an Arab proposal will be presented, with the support of the Arab League."

Are you aware of the fact that if Israel releases the Hamas members of parliament as part of a deal to release [kidnapped IDF soldier] Gilad Shalit, there is a good chance that the Palestinian parliament will not extend your term?

"Yes, but without any connection to my term, I'm not opposed to their release. I have even demanded of Olmert more than once to release the speaker of the parliament, Aziz Dweik of Hamas. There is no reason to leave them in prison, and we have made it clear to Israel that in the context of any peace agreement, all the Palestinian prisoners will be released."

What do you think of the rise of Al Qaida in Gaza?

"I was the first to warn about it, and we are opposed to it. But you must understand that you have to remove the siege of the Gaza Strip in order to stop the strengthening of these extremist factors. You must open the trade crossings to the Strip, because distress will only strengthen organizations like Al Qaida."

What do you think of the calls by senior Palestinian officials, in light of the failure of the negotiations, to dismantle the PA, transfer responsibility to Israel and establish one state for two nations?

"That is an issue that came up in the Arab League, too. But in my opinion, we should stick to implementing a solution of two states for two nations. That is the best proposal. But you must not prevent this solution and push people into a corner. A continuation of your dangerous policy in the West Bank - construction in the settlements, the roadblocks, the raids on West Bank cities - will only distance the two-state solution."

"We don't want one state for two nations, and various people who are doing that, including Abu Ala, are doing it out of despair. You must treat the Palestinians with respect, as full partners, human beings like you. If you believe in occupation and the Palestinian partner becomes irrelevant, no Israeli will feel secure."

Did you make a mistake in the second intifada when you turned to violence?

"I have said this in the past. We made a mistake when we turned the intifada into an armed struggle, and I will do everything possible so that there won't be a third, armed intifada. But you mustn't push people into acting violently."

The interview takes place mostly in English. Occasionally MK Tibi whispers into the ear of the rais and the conversation continues. The secretary of the PA, Tayeb Abed al-Rahim, one of people closest to Abu Mazen, is present at the interview and adds his comments.

When will you meet with U.S. President George W. Bush, and what will you tell him at your last meeting?

"I'll be meeting with him on September 26, and I'll listen to what he has to say. I admire him very much. He did very good work, and nevertheless we did not succeed in reaching an agreement. It's not his mistake, nor mine. As far as he is concerned, he made the required effort."

Did you think that 15 years after Oslo we would still be sitting here and talking about the chances for a peace agreement?

"It's unbelievable, it's beyond any imagination that we haven't succeeded in reaching an agreement until now. But even today, I'm convinced that I would have signed the Oslo Accords. I risked my life for peace and if I have to pay for it with my life, that's a negligible price. I don't regret the Oslo Accords. Twenty years before the agreement I believed in peace with the Israelis, and I still believe in it."