Amir Oren
Haaretz
December 11, 2012 - 12:00am
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-intel-predicts-palestinian-sta...


A U.S. intelligence report predicts growing conflicts between secular Israelis and the ultra-Orthodox and settlers, with the Palestinians getting a state based on the 1967 borders with land swaps by 2030.

The state, however, won't necessarily be formally declared, and the issues of Jerusalem, refugees and the demilitarization of the West Bank might not be solved.

The report predicts that with the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and eventually Afghanistan, support for Israel will remain the last cause for Muslim anti-U.S. sentiments.

The report, "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds," was released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. It was prepared in recent months but published only after U.S. President Barack Obama was reelected.

According to the report, "at home Israel faces increasing social and political divisions between those who still cherish a vision" harking back to its 1948 founding. It talks about "the growing demographic weight of the religiously conservative Haredim and settler movement."

As for the establishment of a Palestinian state, the report talks about a Palestine emerging from Arab-Israeli exhaustion and an unwillingness of Israelis and Palestinians to engage in endless conflict.

Issues like the right of return, demilitarization and Jerusalem will not be fully resolved by 2030 and there will be no complete end to the conflict, the report says.

A Palestinian state will be achieved via unofficial independent actions known as "'coordinated unilateralism' incrementally leading to statehood.

As Hamas moves away from Syria and Iran to the Sunni Arab fold, the potential for reconciliation between the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah and Hamas in Gaza" will increase. "Palestine's borders will be roughly along the 1967 borders with adjustments or land swaps along the green line, but other issues will remain unresolved."

The report adds that Israel-Palestinian peace could open unprecedented opportunities for Israel, but a stalemate would see Israel invest its energy in controlling the Palestinian population in the West Bank and dealing with the Gaza Strip.




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