File under: Reading the writing on the wall. As the United States withholds vital aid for the Palestinians, Israel handed over $78 million last week. The early transfer of tax revenues reflects Israeli fears of wider unrest as the crisis strains the Palestinian Authority's budget to the point of government shutdowns over unpaid wages. 

The problem for the Palestinians is that this dependency on foreign money gives the West a larger than usual say over their politics and diplomacy. The dependancy means any wrong move can have devastating consequences. Abbas’s first failed U.N. gambit resulted in the Congress stopping aid in 2011. A year later, the Palestinians are still waiting for the U.S. to free $200 million pledged for 2012, which is less likely to happen if the U.N. agrees in November to upgrade Palestine's status. 

It was a curious choice of words at the time. An infusion of cash from Saudi Arabia weeks earlier was the only thing standing between the PA and fiscal calamity. Riyadh provided $100 million in direct budget assistance in August, which was 100 times more than the next-highest donor. The otherwise habitual failure of Arab regimes to fulfill their pledges is not a recent phenomenon; the Palestinian Authority's traditional backers hold back far less often. That is what happened in August, when the PA received nothing from the West.

Diplomats in the region insist the E.U. has no plans for U.S.-style punitive measures if Abbas goes back to the U.N. “We never withheld money from them,” E.U. representative John Gatt-Rutter insisted, while an aide told me that the E.U. was not scheduled to send money until November. Europe has pledged to increase funding next year, so there’s no hard feelings. But European officials are advising the Palestinians to “be careful” about returning to the U.N. over “possible negative consequences of their decision,” says the Greek deputy foreign minister. British diplomats are also warning of serious consequences if Abbas moves forward. These warnings follow American pressure on the E.U., itself: The Palestinians risk "significant negative consequences," a U.S. memo sent to European representatives warns. 

“The real obstacle restricting the Palestinian economy is the Israeli occupation," not the recent donor chaos, says Odeh, the PA spokeswoman. But the situation as it stands now “undermines any improvement to the situation and achievement in self-sustainability the PA achieves. The longer the status quo continues, the higher the risk we will not be able to defend these achievements.”This is the dilemma facing Abbas as he weighs his next move at the U.N. If he succeeds, Israel is not likely to bail him out again.