Adam Gonn
Xinhua (Analysis)
July 20, 2012 - 12:00am
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-07/20/c_123436816.htm


It was labeled the "super coalition" which would give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a solid majority in the Knesset (parliament) to deal with challenges facing the nation.

However, on Tuesday, Kadima party leader Shaul Mofaz decided to leave the government he had joined only 72 days earlier, after negotiations over a new draft law fell apart.

The day after Kadima joined the government in May, the Knesset was scheduled to vote on a law calling for elections in September, but after Kadima joined the law was scrapped.

"Netanyahu is the only one that can decide on early elections, but right now I don't see a reason for him to go for early elections," Dr. Hani Zubida of the Yezreel Valley College told Xinhua on Thursday.

Netanyahu isn't in any rush to earlier elections, because, even without Kadima, his government still holds a majority in the Knesset.

With Kadima, the government had 94 out of 120 seats. Without it, it still has 65 mandates.

"Netanyahu could be the first prime minister in decades that completes a whole term," he added.

Elections to the Knesset are officially scheduled to be held at the end of 2013, and not since 1982 has as Israeli prime minister served the full four years.

When the Supreme Court in January ruled the Tal Law unconstitutional, which exempted ultra-orthodox Jewish men from military and national service in favor of religious studies, it gave the government until Aug. 1 to come up with a new law.

Prof. Galia Golan, of the Interdisciplinary-Center in Herzliya, said that the government doubts that they'll be able to come up with a new law in time.

The efforts to write a law to replace the Tal law focused on how and at what pace the ultra-orthodox should be integrated into the army or national services and how those who refuse to serve should be punished.

The ultra-orthodox parties in the government are opposed to any form of service.

Golan said that it was very likely that whenever the next elections are held, Netanyahu could lose support due to his stand since he is going to appear as someone who is favoring the religious parties over national interests.

"This has been a tremendous blow and I'm sure he is sorry went for the national unity government with Kadima instead of holding elections," she added.

"But so many things are going to happen before the next elections, including the possibility of an attack on Iran," she added.

Even if Netanyahu were to lose one or two mandates in the next elections, he would still be much better off than Mofaz.

Most polls conducted in May before Kadima joined the government showed that, had elections been held in September, Kadima would have lost 20 out of its 29 mandates.

Such a devastating political loss would be the end of the road for Kadima as a party and for Mofaz as a politician, according to many pundits.




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