After the overthrow of the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt, mass anti-government protests erupted across the Middle East.

Analysts told Xinhua that the recent turmoil in the region seems to be bad news for Israel at first glance, but in the long term the situation could work to its advantage.

NEW REALITY

The single most important event from an Israeli point of view over the last month was the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who was viewed as a strong ally during his 30-year rule.

However, the fear in Israel is that the departure of Mubarak would lead to the Muslim Brotherhood taking over and annulling the peace agreement with Israel. So far, that hasn't happened, since the army is currently running the country.

In the short term, Egypt might have to cope with instability, which would sharply limit its ability to wage war against Israel.

In the long run, even though the Muslim Brotherhood might end up leading Egypt, few pundits foresee a war between the two countries. Additionally, here is no conflict over territory as the Sinai Peninsula was returned in 1979 as part of the Camp David peace treaty.

However, the absence of war is not the same as peace, according to Dr. Dan Schueftan, deputy director of the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa.

"Even if it does not come to a point where the peace treaty is abolished and the wars starts, from an Israeli point of view you have to be prepared for a situation that this can happen," Schueftan said, noting that even if this scenario is unlikely in the near future, Israel should start sooner to prepare for it as the preparations may take years.

Such preparations would be both a strain on Israel's defense budget and an adjustment of the country's strategic thinking on military options and political agreements in the region, according to Schueftan.

"Because if until now Israel could assume that the Egyptian front would be quiet, Israel can no longer assume it," Schueftan said.

However, if after twenty years of struggle, the Muslim Brotherhood finally has a chance to take power in Egypt, it's unlikely that they would risk hard-earned gains by warring with their neighbor to the east.

FORGOTTEN PEACE PROCESS

Dr. Maha Azzam, an associate fellow at Middle East and North Africa Program at the British think-tank Chatham House, told Xinhua that popular protests in Egypt and other countries across the Middle East will distract some of the attention from the Israel-Palestinian peace process.

"Inevitably, what is happening on the ground in the region, in terms of a challenge to regimes, is going to take much of the attention of countries in the region, and also of the U.S.," Azzam said.

One example for this lack of attention could be that there has been no condemnation from the international community over Israel' s latest plans to build an army college in East Jerusalem, which the Palestinians see as the capital for their future independent state.

Prof. Yossi Shain, from the department of political science at Tel Aviv University, said while the peace process might be out of focus at the moment, this may change in March, when the Israeli attorney general is expected to decide whether or not to indict Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

Lieberman, who heads the second largest party in the Israeli government, Yisrael Beiteinu, is under investigation for obstruction of justice, bribery and money laundering.

"Everything is on hold, but by the end of March we will get some clarity and then things may move," Shain said.

He also noted that both the U.S. and regional leaders are waiting to see what will happen to the Palestinian plan to submit to the United Nations Security Council a resolution condemning Israeli settlement construction. If the resolution reaches the council, the U.S. is expected to veto it.

But Shain was hopeful regarding the peace process, saying that "there may be some big impetus to push it forward rapidly after that."

NEW AND OLD ALLIES

According to David Harris, executive director of the American Jewish Committee, a U.S.-based advocacy group, the publication of the Wikileaks files proved Israel's point that regional leaders are more concerned by Iran than the frozen peace process. The Persian Gulf states see Iran as a threat, and have been asking the U.S. to deter the Islamic state.

As the venerable Mideast saying goes, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend," many Arab states in the region may see Israel as a " stealth ally" in countering Iranian influence.

Yoel Guzansky, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said he believes the new regional layout may be in Israel's advantage, as the lines between Sunni Muslim countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt versus Shiite Muslim in Iran have become sharper.

"Since 2006, with the end of the Lebanon war, we have seen this shift between Sunni and Shiite," Guzansky said, adding that while the protests in Tunisia and Egypt have focused on reforms, the Shiite majority's protests in Bahrain are meant to overthrow the country's small Sunni ruling elite.

"It's true that the focus has shifted," Guzansky said, "with Israel standing as a calm and stable place in the eyes of the West. "