Two weeks of continuous incitement by the Islamic Movement's northern branch, members of the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian clerics has generated a particularly volatile mixture. The escalation in Jerusalem surrounding the Temple Mount and its Al-Aqsa Mosque has led the world's most important Sunni cleric, Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, to declare today "Al-Aqsa Day." In addition, there are no diplomatic negotiations under way with Israel. And unprecedented protests in the West Bank against the PA and its head, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), arising from his decision to defer action on the Goldstone report on Gaza and not press the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva to send it on to the Security Council for discussion.

The nearly absurd sequence of events that began on Yom Kippur Eve may have taught Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a few new shopping malls, a movie theater and some restaurants in Palestinian towns are no substitute for a real diplomatic process - certainly not when there are so many players interested in a conflagration.

On Monday morning, Sheikh Ra'ad Salah, head of the Islamic Movement's northern branch, who has helped to fan the flames, sat on a straw mat on the roof of a house in the Wadi Joz neighborhood of East Jerusalem. Scattered about were mattresses, a few chairs and bottles of mineral water; above him was a green tarp, for shade. A number of his people gathered around, trying not to disturb him.

A few minutes earlier, about 100 of his supporters had left the rooftop and set off for one of the police barricades set up to prevent them from reaching the Temple Mount. Someone pointed out the sheikh's photo on the front page of the mass-circulation daily Yedioth Ahronoth. He conducted a long conversation with a resident of East Jerusalem about a local bakery that makes bread and soft sesame rolls, talking on a mobile phone and making notes on a small piece of paper. At one point, seeing that writing was difficult without a surface to lean on, he pulled out his blue Israeli identity card. Apparently Ra'ad, who this week declared that "if Zionism isn't eliminated, there will not be peace," apparently finds some advantage in holding the citizenship of a country he sees as an enemy.

Salah called this week on all Muslims to come to the Al-Aqsa Mosque and barricade themselves in it until "the danger to the place" passes. "As long as there is an Israeli occupation of Al-Aqsa, it is in danger," he explained in an interview to an Arab television channel. Ra'ad Salah does not give interviews to Jewish Israeli reporters (even though his friends in Hamas do agree to interviews); Arabs are welcome.

His deputy, Sheikh Kamal Khatib, who is prepared to talk to "the Jews" in Hebrew, explained on Wednesday morning in a interview with Army Radio that he finds it unacceptable that "an Ethiopian policeman, a Negro, would ask a Muslim for his identity card," at the entrance to the Temple Mount compound.

The northern branch spokesman, Zahi Nujeidat, explained to Haaretz that "it is better for the Jews to save themselves time and look for what they call 'the Temple Mount' somewhere else."

In a brief historical review, Nujeidat tried to make it clear why Al-Aqsa is so sacred to the Muslims, and how claims that the Temple Mount is sacred to the Jews simply are not relevant. "It's impossible to argue about this or to claim anything else. I am sticking to the history I believe in," he said.

In the meantime, Salah's 100 supporters arrived at the police barricade. For half an hour they stood near the policemen and chanted "Allahu Akhbar" and "There is no God but Allah." A few kilometers away, at the Western Wall plaza, thousands of Jews joined in Sukkot's traditional Priestly Blessing.

At a certain stage, a police officer announced to the demonstrators that this was an illegal gathering and they had to leave. Police from the counter-terror unit donned their helmets while mounted police edged their horses ahead and advanced toward the crowd. The demonstrators turned around and headed down the street. Along the way they passed the house where their leader, Sheikh Ra'ad, sat on the rooftop in the shade.

A few meters further on in this strange procession, a brief skirmish between the police and the demonstrators ensued, but ended within a few seconds. The police forces left the scene quietly as the northern branch people continued to chant. Some of them began to shout: "Khaybar Khaybar ya Yahud, jish Muhammad saya'oud" ("Khaybar, Khaybar, oh Jews, Mohammed's army will return"), but were immediately silenced.

For the uninitiated, that is one of the most famous anti-Jewish racist chants in the Islam world. Khaybar was an oasis north of the city of Medina to which many Jews fled after rejecting attempts to convert them to Islam, and were accused of trying to help the prophet Mohammed's rivals in Mecca. At the Battle of Khaybar in 629 C.E. Mohammed and his army killed about 100 local Jews; the survivors surrendered and agreed to pay him taxes.

The northern branch blames the current tension in Jerusalem on posters hung before Yom Kippur by members of the extremist Temple Mount Faithful group, which called upon Jews to come to worship on Sunday, the eve of the holiday, in the Temple Mount compound.

For a moment, one almost suspects that the two organizations are cooperating: Every holiday season, that marginal Jewish group tries to create a provocation - and the Islamic Movement responds immediately.

On September 25, two days before Yom Kippur, the former mufti of Jerusalem, Sheikh Ikrima Sabri, who delivers the Friday sermon at Al-Aqsa, called upon all Muslims to come and defend the place. To warm up the atmosphere, he was joined by people from the Freedom Party - Hisb al-Tahrir, an extremist group whose members stay on an almost permanent basis inside the mosque compound - and by the person who holds the Jerusalem portfolio in Fatah, Hatem Abd al-Kader. By 5 A.M. on September 27, about 200 enraged Palestinians who had come to "defend" the mosque with their bodies were waiting for "the Jewish fanatics." As it has every day since 2003, the Mughrabi Gate opened at 7:30 A.M. for non-Muslim visitors.

On the other side, however, neither the Temple Mount Faithful nor any other Jewish group, fanatical or otherwise, was waiting. There were just a few tourists from France. The "Al-Aqsa Faithful" were not sticklers for detail; they did not take the trouble to ascertain who the visitors were and immediately started throwing stones at them and at the police.

Another 'victory'

Things calmed down before Yom Kippur began, but into the breach came the energetic northern branch, plus a few Palestinian politicians who have seen to it that whole issue does not slip off the agenda.

Last Friday, the northern branch convened the 14th annual "Al-Aqsa Is in Danger" rally, in Umm al-Fahm, attracting thousands. At the same time, the Palestinian media gave prominence to declarations by various senior members of Fatah, Hamas and other factions proclaiming the "danger" to Al-Aqsa - until even Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad (who is a resident of Jerusalem) found it hard to restrain themselves and joined the chorus, attacking Israel for its intention to harm the mosque.

On Wednesday, Israeli Arab Knesset members, who are not exactly fans of the northern branch, visited the mosque in solidarity with the struggle underway there. "East Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa," said Balad MK Jamal Zahalka, "are occupied territory. Real quiet can only be achieved when the occupation is ended."

As Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu's supporters were celebrating another "victory" in the political battle against the PA - after it retreated from its intent to bring the Goldstone Commission report on Israel's operation in Gaza to the Security Council, it appeared that Abbas' standing in the eyes of Palestinian public opinion has never been worse. Even Balad and northern branch members, who refrain from intervening in intra-Palestinian affairs, called upon the PA president to resign this week. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera TV has been conducting a campaign against him of a sort never before directed against an Arab leader. Prominent people in Fatah are calling upon him to draw the appropriate conclusions, and Abbas' closest advisors, like Yasser Abed Rabbo, are admitting he may have made an error of judgment. The peak came on Wednesday in Gaza, when Hamas organized a humiliating ceremony in which inhabitants of the Gaza Strip were invited to fling shoes at Abbas' picture in the city center.

In fact, the prevailing sense among the president's supporters in Fatah and the Palestinian Liberation Organization is that Fatah is liable to pay the price in the next elections, although it isn't clear yet when they will be held - possibly in June 2010.

Criticism of Abbas, only some of it pertinent, is mostly political in nature. Discussion of the Goldstone report would have come up against a U.S. veto, and diplomatic negotiations would have been delayed even longer. Abbas realized that the major relevant Arab states, Jordan and Egypt, want to avoid a discussion in the UN Council for Human Rights, and decided to act accordingly.

This past month the Palestinian leader did not miss a single opportunity to shoot himself in the foot. First, after promising for two long months that he would not meet with Netanyahu without a total freeze on building in the settlements, he met him. Then came the PA campaign to promote the Goldstone report, the explicit threats to submit it to the Security Council - and then the decision to back down. That was just a day before Hamas succeeded in having 20 women released from Israeli prisons in return for the video of captive soldier Gilad Shalit. Abbas has caused Fatah, the PA, the PLO and himself to be perceived by the Palestinian public as a bunch of collaborators, who submit to American dictates time after time. Hamas, on the other hand, portrays itself as successful in bending the Israelis by force.

If riots start today, Abbas will have to do something. If he tries to calm things down, he is liable to come under fire himself. If he does not intervene, he may find himself in a situation similar to that of Yasser Arafat, who was persecuted by Israel. But even if he gets through today, the real test of the status of the PA leader will come after the completion of a Shalit deal. If Hamas succeeds in freeing 450 prisoners, most of whom "have blood on their hands" (of a total of 1,400 in the release deal) in exchange for Shalit, support for Hamas will soar. And if that happens, Netanyahu won't be able to celebrate his Pyrrhic victory.